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dtewi on 19 November 2010

Unvote

Vote: radishhead

Feigning pro-towniness when he has been discredited about his claims and the fact that lynches would usually occur on day 2 with games starting with night 1.

C'mon, everyone. Vote for Radishhead!



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

Around the Network
radishhead on 19 November 2010
dtewi said:

Unvote

Vote: radishhead

Feigning pro-towniness when he has been discredited about his claims and the fact that lynches would usually occur on day 2 with games starting with night 1.

C'mon, everyone. Vote for Radishhead!

As I said, just my playstyle. A mislynch is effectively two mafia kills :o

Since the probability of a mislynch (such as the one that you're currently plotting) is so great, I prefer to wait until the second day, when we have more evidence.



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Wonktonodi on 19 November 2010
theprof00 said:
Wonktonodi said:
theprof00 said:
Wonktonodi said:

So this is my first mafia round and from what I'm seeing there are those trying for a day one lynching and most against it.  Seems that a day one lynch would benifit the mafia more than the town and useing worse case senerios to try and hide that fact seems odd to me.  I could see mafia trying to hide by saying not to lynch the first day but what would get a townsperson to want to lynch someone the first day?  Not too much unless you see things that really make you think someone is mafia.

So what I'm thinking is Theprof00 might be mafia for trying to convince people that it doesn't matter.  Or GodOfWar_3ever is for just trying to get a lynching going.  So if I were to vote it would be for either of those to.

Am I way off in my thinking?

Apparently, you're not off by that much. Everyone thinks the way you do.


Well it's just you used only the worse case senario to show why it doesn't matter it's all the senarios that aren't worse case where that extra person could make a difference.

Imagine flipping a coin 12 times and having heads come up every single time. That's about the same chance we have of that one scenario where a day 1 mislynch is detrimental. 

And what of the senarios where the doctor and cop don't always fail?  If they get taken out sooner than latter it would have an impact on the game.



Stefl1504 on 19 November 2010
TruckOSaurus said:
radishhead said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm torn as to how to interpret your posts today. On one hand, you could be a concerned townie who doesn't like the odds for a first day lynch but on the other hand you could be a scum scared to be found out early because in previous games early bandwagons/lynches seemed to focus on you...

Hey, for now all that you can do is trust me. :)

For now, I prefer to distrust you until there's some reason to trust you.

Actually the only way to get through day one without hurting the town is to distrust everyone...



Currently Streaming: Tales of Xillia & Best Doto - My DotA 2 stats

dtewi on 19 November 2010
radishhead said:
dtewi said:

Unvote

Vote: radishhead

Feigning pro-towniness when he has been discredited about his claims and the fact that lynches would usually occur on day 2 with games starting with night 1.

C'mon, everyone. Vote for Radishhead!

As I said, just my playstyle. A mislynch is effectively two mafia kills :o

Since the probability of a mislynch (such as the one that you're currently plotting) is so great, I prefer to wait until the second day, when we have more evidence.

Didn't stop you from voting in previous games before. Yet you made it clear your intention here was to no lynch.

Vote for radishhead!



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

Around the Network
Hephaestos on 19 November 2010
theprof00 said:

Imagine flipping a coin 12 times and having heads come up every single time. That's about the same chance we have of that one scenario where a day 1 mislynch is detrimental. 


I think you missed the point by being too fixated in your scenarios.

if I understood correctly, he says that you don't consider, for example, that day 2 lynch gets a mafia... then your day 5 could be saved by the extra person not killed day 1.

basically you should consider the bell curve. (this is an example, I didn't crunch numbers)

 

M/SK never killed? close 0

odds mafia are never killed? slim

odds that one mafia is killed? better

odds that 2 mafia are killed (hey there's a cop)? even better

odds that 3 mafia are killed? just better

odds that 4 mafia are killed? slime

4 mafia SK? close 0

 

=> most likely scenario is 2 mafia killed, so your estimates should be based on that.

(made the odds look a bit like a bell curve on purpose :p)



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noname2200 on 19 November 2010
radishhead said:
noname2200 said:
radishhead said:

It's not my fault that I don't like GOW very much :(

Ironically, I think the reason that I voted for him was because he was trying to get a 1st day lynch. (Not to mention that I was the SK in that game - SKs always want kills).

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3634466

Second game I've checked.  You were town, but you expressed a willingness to lynch Day One, if warranted.

I've said that this game too - it's just my way of telling people that I've got all bases covered. I mean - if someone randomly admitted that they were Mafia, I'd vote for them xD

So... you routinely lie and hedge?



radishhead on 19 November 2010
dtewi said:
radishhead said:
dtewi said:

Unvote

Vote: radishhead

Feigning pro-towniness when he has been discredited about his claims and the fact that lynches would usually occur on day 2 with games starting with night 1.

C'mon, everyone. Vote for Radishhead!

As I said, just my playstyle. A mislynch is effectively two mafia kills :o

Since the probability of a mislynch (such as the one that you're currently plotting) is so great, I prefer to wait until the second day, when we have more evidence.

Didn't stop you from voting in previous games before. Yet you made it clear your intention here was to no lynch.

Vote for radishhead!

Yeah, but I've also said in this game that I'll vote if something changes in the situation.



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radishhead on 19 November 2010
noname2200 said:
radishhead said:
noname2200 said:
radishhead said:

It's not my fault that I don't like GOW very much :(

Ironically, I think the reason that I voted for him was because he was trying to get a 1st day lynch. (Not to mention that I was the SK in that game - SKs always want kills).

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3634466

Second game I've checked.  You were town, but you expressed a willingness to lynch Day One, if warranted.

I've said that this game too - it's just my way of telling people that I've got all bases covered. I mean - if someone randomly admitted that they were Mafia, I'd vote for them xD

So... you routinely lie and hedge?

I thought that I was quite experienced at Mafia, but I've never heard that term before - explain, and I'll give you an answer :)



Click this button, you know you want to!  [Subscribe]

Watch me on YouTube!

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~~~~ Mario Kart 8 drove far past my expectations! Never again will I doubt the wheels of a Monster Franchise! :0 ~~~~

Stefl1504 on 19 November 2010
radishhead said:
dtewi said:

Unvote

Vote: radishhead

Feigning pro-towniness when he has been discredited about his claims and the fact that lynches would usually occur on day 2 with games starting with night 1.

C'mon, everyone. Vote for Radishhead!

As I said, just my playstyle. A mislynch is effectively two mafia kills :o

Since the probability of a mislynch (such as the one that you're currently plotting) is so great, I prefer to wait until the second day, when we have more evidence.

Actually I don't think a mislynch is the same as a Mafia Kill. First off we get to know who are the people who supported the mislynch and we also get other information, second a mislynch is not controlable for Mafia... there are other things, but I can think of no other right now...



Currently Streaming: Tales of Xillia & Best Doto - My DotA 2 stats