Speaking of statistics, is there any point in crunching numbers to determine whether a day one lynch is "worth it"?  Why don't we all just keep looking for scum, and lynch one when we find one?

You can do what, make an irrelevant comparison? 

I'm making a comparison between your considerations of possibility. The possibility of that one specific possible outcome is far more impossible than you seem to think it is, and it is the only situation in which a no lynch today is preferable to a chanced lynch. In fact, the chance of lynching a mafia randomly today greatly exceeds the chance of that possibility happening. 

Compare this with the fact that you sternly denied the possibility of a busser existing in that game, and it's easy to see how you're being contradictory. A role existing is far more possible than a specific series of events happening. In fact, according to your own logic in that game, an SK should not exist in this game. It's just baffling how you can be at odds with yourself like this. Unless you've completely changed your opinions about the fundamental gameplay, I have no reason to believe your estimation of odds.

To address your statement that an SK is vanilla: We didn't have one last game, and that was vanilla. 

To address your last paragraph. I never meant to give you ownership of the scenario. I'm not implying anything of the sort. I'm merely giving it a distinguishing property so as to better identify it when I'm talking about it rather than explaining the scenario every single time. I do hate using the word "that" because of its inherent vagueness, so I called it "your scenario". Don't read to deeply into it.

And yes, it is very close to impossible. 

Look again, vette.

(AND I'D ALSO LIKE EVERYONE ELSE TO CHIME IN ON THIS)

How possible is this scenario:

There is an SK, 4 mafia, and 12 townies.

• Every day, including the first, the town mislynches.
• Every night, (first 2 nights) the mafia kills a townie.
• Every night, the SK kills a townie
• On the third night, mafia kills the SK.
• Cop is either dead or has no evidence.
• Doctor is either dead or fails to protect anyone.

All of these conditions above must be true.

I'm not underming anything. I'm trying to show that lynching on day 1 is not a problem. A mislynch today is a "free" mislynch. If we do, or do not lynch today, we are only allowed 2 mislynches before the game is nearly over. 

Vette argues that a certain very specific series of events is of a great enough importance to not lynch today.

You're right. There is no point arguing the merits of mislynching on day 1.

I am against a no lynch if there can be a mafia lynched. SOME PEOPLE will hold to the idea that it is too risky to lynch on day 1 regardless of whatever evidence we find. Therefore, I proposed that a mislynch is actually, statistically negligible. Based on that, there should be no "safety" opposition to a day one lynch.

Correct?

Yes, at 3-4-1 the game continues. As long as there are night-killing roles outside of the mafia, the game continues.

However, the point of the chart is to show the worst case scenario. I'm sure you would agree wholeheartedly that the worst case scenario has a very very low chance of occurring.

Additionally, while every extra day is a boon for the town in terms of investigations, it also assumes that the cop isn't already dead.

Also, you must agree that even in those scenarios you described, as "continuing" town would need to lynch correctly every single day, correct?

I fail to see how this is even up for discussion honestly.

EDIT: also you are using incorrect numbers. We are talking about 4 mafia and 1 SK, so while your graphs do provide a look from a different point of view in scope, you cannot truly say you disagree with me, when your opinion is based upon different numbers.

I don't know if a mislynch is "statistically negligible," but it doesn't really matter.  Judging from the games I've played and read, it's fairly common for someone to say something that's lynch-worthy even on the first day. 

I propose that we try to find that person(s), and then convince others why that person(s) need a lynching.  If, after making a concerted effort to do just that, we don't find anyone who we agree is worth lynching, we'll settle on a no lynch today. 

But I see no reason why we should be any more afraid of mislynching now than we would be later.  And I'm concerned that the town will once again prove too timid for its own good;  not only can scum thereby get off the hook, but it makes the game drag on and therefore become much less fun...

never mind my edit, I had trouble reading your graph. What's lylo and mylo, and what are the columns?

Thank you for your input. I feel the exact same way.

Well its not completely irrelevant,  you are basically asking for a lynch on the first day,  which could lead to killing a powerful pro-town role.  

This is the last time I am going to talk about past games,  but in that game there was absolutely no evidence to believe there was a busser at all.  You had evidence that you refused to share with people, showing there was, it was you being a disruptive pro-town character, but instead you were asking them to trust you.  Which you dont trust anyone in mafia games, unless they are confirmed to be who they say they are, which you werent. 

Plus I am not the one dening the possibility of something happening,  you are denying that there is a serial killer,  when there may be,  you are denying that the possibility of the worse case scenario happening, which it can.   While the latter may have a really slim chance, it doesnt mean its not possible.  Which is what I am trying to say and the complete opposite of what you are trying to say i am doing, which is denying the possibility of something.   I am not denying anything,  I know that it may be near impossible, but that doesnt make it completely impossible. 

And to address your naming issue,  how about calling it what it is,  worst case scenario,  how hard is that?