Including the SK in the chart is needless complication for a game where one might or might not exist. 

Ok let's take another look assuming one SK 4 mafia and 12 townies.

D1:mislynch 4-1-11
N1:2 townies 4-1-9
D2: mislynch 4-1-8
N2: 2 townies 4-1-6
D3: mislynch 4-1-5 (although even to mafia, no end due to 2 groups having night kill abilities)
N3: IF
SK kills townie, and mafia kills townie: game continues
SK kills townie, and mafia kills SK: game over
SK kills mafia, mafia kills townie: game continues
SK kills mafia, mafia kills SK: game continues

Now, let's check no lynch on day 1:

D1: no lynch 4-1-12
N1: 2 townies 4-1-10
D2: mislynch 4-1-9
N2: 2 townies 4-1-7
D3: mislynch 4-1-6
N3: IF
SK kills townie, mafia kills townie: game continues 
SK kills townie, mafia kills SK: game continues 
SK kills mafia, mafia kills townie: game continues
Sk kills mafia, mafia kills SK: game continues

As you can see, nearly everytime the game will continue on to day 4 and will require town to correctly lynch the next 4-5 days in a row, which is nearly impossible. The only way the game ends before day 4, is if we mislynch all three days and then mafia and SK kill town the first 2 nights, and on the third night SK kills a townie and mafia kill the SK. So, considering the worst possible scenario, the difference between lynching today and not lynching today is very much negligible. 

EDIT: my point is, if we don't lynch today, we are only allowed 2 mislynches, whereas if we lynch today, we are allowed 3 mislynches. Either way, we have the same amount of leeway tomorrow. The worst possible scenario is also nearly impossible as there will be doctoring, and there will be copping, and there will be SK killing mafia and vice versa.

So in other words,  a no lynch,  in a worse possible case scenario is the best solution for a Day 1.  As made obvious by your charts.  

by an impossibly small margin which assumes total doctor and cop failure, and complete townie holocaust engineered in a way that mafia correctly kill the SK on the same night that the SK kills a townie.... even if one person had alts playing as every mafia and the SK this would be nearly impossible.

But I like how you make it seem like this ridiculously implausible scenario makes you right.

FoS vetteman for trying to look pro-town

The chart is always made with the worse possible case scenario in mind, it doesnt matter if it is completely implausible or not.  It is still a possible outcome, which seems to upset you cause it makes you wrong.  

I dont have to try to look pro-town,  I am pro-town.  

HoS: theprof00

For trying to downplay the possibilty of a SK in this game, when in most games this size there is one.

Coming from someone who refused to see a possible busser on round 19, I'd say you were acting strange.

And yes, I expect that you are town since you only say suspicious things when you're not mafia.

And this game is completely vanilla. If there is an SK I'd be surprised. There has been numerous debate and calls for a strictly vanilla game with only a doc, cop, and maybe a vigilante. If Hat included an SK, I wouldn't be completely surprised, but I'd be surprised enough to make a chart without considering the SK, apparently.

And again, your worst case scenario is completely and utterly implausible. It's not implausible that there is an SK, but it's implausible that the sequence of events occurs exactly as the chart requires. 

Anyone would agree that you're wrong.

Outside tracker tracking the game here.

Round 19,  you mean that game you lead a lynch on possibly the most powerful townie in the game?  See I can do it too

A SK is a normal role for a vanilla game,  it always has been.

For one,  its not my scenario, its the game's scenario,  so dont throw this on me because you dont seem to understand the idea of worse possible case scenario.  Which is the only reason that chart is used.  Being implausible doesnt make it impossible.  No matter how many times you repeat it

In the OP hatmoza wrote:

Written on those letters in pink glitter is one of the following: Town, Mafia, or [Insert role].

The fact that he didn't write Town, Mafia, Cop or Doctor tells me there's more than just those two roles. So we shouldn't rule out a SK or any other typical role like Bus driver or lie detector.

A-ha!  But in your last five games, you've been scum four times, which is an 80% Scum Rate!  I therefore project a 80% probability that you are scum this game, because statistics are infallible!

vote: TruckOSaurus!

Oh, wait...

The way I see it, prof seems to be trying to undermine the credibility of just about everyone who stands out;

And on the other hand Vetteman is obsessing over the chart and prof's alleged opposition to his no lynch plan. 

@ TOS -- I wouldn't consider Bus Driver an ordinary role at all, and lie detector is more like a flavor of cop role and thus also not typical.  I would not expect either of these, but especially not the busser, to be in a town with only a few power roles.  But then again we don't actually know exactly how hatmoza is doing this one.