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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

binary solo on 16 November 2010

So this thread's true title should be Kinect will sell 20 million units.

Maybe it will.

Of course with PC implementation that should get more sales for Kinect, though not sure what a PC owner without a 360 will do with Kinect Adventures.

 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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donsterydo2 on 16 November 2010

10 m - it's a given

 

15 m - possible

 

20 m - it could till the end of 2012



Nirvana_Nut85 on 16 November 2010
ramses01 said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:

I think 10, maybe 12 would be a realistic figure if it catches on, but 20 million is definately a pipe dream


Dude, it is going to hit 10 million by this time next year.  Probably 12-15 million by the end of 2011 with a long shot at 20 million depending on the kinect 360 bundle to non-bundled ratio.

Yah, maybe with bundled systems it could do it, but I definately dont see the stand alone version movng more than 12 mil LTD



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

chapset on 16 November 2010
kowenicki said:
chapset said:

to do 20 millons kinect need to be big in all three market and so far kinect is ok in EMEAA, huge in the states and won't do much in japan so no I don't see that hapenning


No it doesnt

MS will have sold  50million consoles this year and is hardly even on the map in Japan.

kinect is targeted at new consumers not existing owners, when the wow effect will fade out with the existing userbase they will need the support of new buyers to keep kinect sales high that's when they will need japan and EMMEA, to do 20 mills wii fit (biggest peripheral this gen) needed all three markets I don't see how kinect will do that with only NA and parts of EMMEA



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

psrock on 16 November 2010

Seriously, Kinect is here to stay, it's part of their future, not only will it sell 20 million, it will be a huge part of their next console.  Part of the problem people are having is they see Kinect like a game or just a prehearsal, MS in the oher hand, sees it like a console launch. They will continue to support and will make it part of their console for years. As a matter of fact, I think Move might sell cole to that as well.



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master69 on 16 November 2010

If the game is bundle with every kinect unit it shouldn't count as million seller. A limited bundle is acceptable, but not if is always bundle (IMO).

 

 



thx1139 on 16 November 2010
archbrix said:

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

As far as why Wii's audience may not gravitate towards Kinect, I'd like to point out something that Rubang hit on previously (I know the last thing you want to hear is another die-hard Nintendo fan saying this, but...) Nintendo truly are visionaries and innovators in a very unique way.  Here's an example:  Right before PSP launched, many people were convinced that nobody would want a DS anymore.  Let's face it; comparing the DS (particularly the old model) to the PSP seems laughable... at first glance.  Then Nintendo utilized the touch screen and mic in amazingly unique ways with things like Brain Age and Nintendogs.  I guess my point is that if almost anyone else had come out with something like DS or Wii I wouldn't give them much of a chance at all at being a success.  Nintendo proves themselves again and again with industry defining standards for home consoles (d-pad, analogue stick, touch screen, motion control, even rumble, and their fantastic gameplay innovations over the years), and frankly I just don't see Microsoft having that savvy.  Seece stated earlier that there are many great minds working on Kinect, and maybe you know something I don't, but all I've seen is Kudo Tsunoda running his mouth and dissing Wii while Kinect has yet to display or announce anything more than mere shadows of the Wii experience.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

Arguments like this never realize they are saying the market for Motion controls has dried up.  If that is the case the Wii sales will plummet like a rock.  The initial thoughts on Kinect from the mass market is MS has done something here and will capture the imagination of the public.  It is very likely that Kinect will sell well for at least 2 years and with new 360 sales (around 20 million in 2011 and 2012 if Kinect doesnt cause a long term increase), and Kinect Adventures remaining the packin then it is very likely that Kinect Adventures will hit 20 million.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Squilliam on 16 November 2010
archbrix said:

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

You're making a similar argument to why the DS wouldn't sell.

DS won't sell because Sony are lord and masters and they have the uber powerful PSP which will leverage their massive 100M plus console userbase and leave little room for such a niche device.

Kinect won't sell because Nintendo are lord and masters and they have uber powerful brand and unique software so Microsoft doesn't have a hope in competing outside of a niche.

Releasing a half baked software/hardware device and then improving upon it hasn't stopped Apple from making even more profit than Nintendo nor sell more devices than Nintendo whilst showing even more growth than Nintendo. There is obvious room for improvement within the time-frame which will increase the value proposition or decrease the cost or both, even on a 12 month timescale.

To put things in perspective, Kinect is currently selling around as fast as the Wii when it originally launched if I read the articles correctly.

 

 





Tease.

phenom08 on 16 November 2010
Squilliam said:
archbrix said:

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

You're making a similar argument to why the DS wouldn't sell.

DS won't sell because Sony are lord and masters and they have the uber powerful PSP which will leverage their massive 100M plus console userbase and leave little room for such a niche device.

Kinect won't sell because Nintendo are lord and masters and they have uber powerful brand and unique software so Microsoft doesn't have a hope in competing outside of a niche.

Releasing a half baked software/hardware device and then improving upon it hasn't stopped Apple from making even more profit than Nintendo nor sell more devices than Nintendo whilst showing even more growth than Nintendo. There is obvious room for improvement within the time-frame which will increase the value proposition or decrease the cost or both, even on a 12 month timescale.

To put things in perspective, Kinect is currently selling around as fast as the Wii when it originally launched if I read the articles correctly.

 

 

This has to be the second or third time I have seen you compare Apple to Nintendo, you clearly see Microsoft as a hardware selling company that isn't anywhere near as good as they are. Apple and Nintendo aren't comparable at all. Apple releases alot of new hardware every year and have more products than Nintendo which is why they sell more hardware and make more money. Nintendo can't release new hardware every year, they would alienate their existing userbase because the newer games wouldn't work on the older hardware which isn't a problem for Apple. I don't know if you knew this or not but Nintendo has sold more DSes and Wiis than Apple has sold Iphones. Also just because Apple can sell hardware like they do doesn't mean Microsoft can do the same, just ask the Zune. ; )



archbrix on 16 November 2010
thx1139 said:
archbrix said:

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

As far as why Wii's audience may not gravitate towards Kinect, I'd like to point out something that Rubang hit on previously (I know the last thing you want to hear is another die-hard Nintendo fan saying this, but...) Nintendo truly are visionaries and innovators in a very unique way.  Here's an example:  Right before PSP launched, many people were convinced that nobody would want a DS anymore.  Let's face it; comparing the DS (particularly the old model) to the PSP seems laughable... at first glance.  Then Nintendo utilized the touch screen and mic in amazingly unique ways with things like Brain Age and Nintendogs.  I guess my point is that if almost anyone else had come out with something like DS or Wii I wouldn't give them much of a chance at all at being a success.  Nintendo proves themselves again and again with industry defining standards for home consoles (d-pad, analogue stick, touch screen, motion control, even rumble, and their fantastic gameplay innovations over the years), and frankly I just don't see Microsoft having that savvy.  Seece stated earlier that there are many great minds working on Kinect, and maybe you know something I don't, but all I've seen is Kudo Tsunoda running his mouth and dissing Wii while Kinect has yet to display or announce anything more than mere shadows of the Wii experience.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

Arguments like this never realize they are saying the market for Motion controls has dried up.  If that is the case the Wii sales will plummet like a rock.  The initial thoughts on Kinect from the mass market is MS has done something here and will capture the imagination of the public.  It is very likely that Kinect will sell well for at least 2 years and with new 360 sales (around 20 million in 2011 and 2012 if Kinect doesnt cause a long term increase), and Kinect Adventures remaining the packin then it is very likely that Kinect Adventures will hit 20 million.

No, you have obviously missed the point of my argument.  But on that perspective, is the Wii selling as well as it once was?  And while it still sells well, it's not solely because of motion as it now has a well rounded library with plenty of games that range from full on motion games to games like NSMB, SSBB and Galaxy which use no or very little motion.  Kinect does not have this advantage as it is based around full motion.  Never did I say that 360 would not continue to sell.  And if you read my post again you will realize two things:  That I am quite open to the possibility that Kinect could continue to sell well into the future and that I credit Sony for taking motion control to the next level as well... far from exclaiming that motion control has "dried up".