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archbrix on 16 November 2010
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thx1139 said:
archbrix said:

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

As far as why Wii's audience may not gravitate towards Kinect, I'd like to point out something that Rubang hit on previously (I know the last thing you want to hear is another die-hard Nintendo fan saying this, but...) Nintendo truly are visionaries and innovators in a very unique way.  Here's an example:  Right before PSP launched, many people were convinced that nobody would want a DS anymore.  Let's face it; comparing the DS (particularly the old model) to the PSP seems laughable... at first glance.  Then Nintendo utilized the touch screen and mic in amazingly unique ways with things like Brain Age and Nintendogs.  I guess my point is that if almost anyone else had come out with something like DS or Wii I wouldn't give them much of a chance at all at being a success.  Nintendo proves themselves again and again with industry defining standards for home consoles (d-pad, analogue stick, touch screen, motion control, even rumble, and their fantastic gameplay innovations over the years), and frankly I just don't see Microsoft having that savvy.  Seece stated earlier that there are many great minds working on Kinect, and maybe you know something I don't, but all I've seen is Kudo Tsunoda running his mouth and dissing Wii while Kinect has yet to display or announce anything more than mere shadows of the Wii experience.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

Arguments like this never realize they are saying the market for Motion controls has dried up.  If that is the case the Wii sales will plummet like a rock.  The initial thoughts on Kinect from the mass market is MS has done something here and will capture the imagination of the public.  It is very likely that Kinect will sell well for at least 2 years and with new 360 sales (around 20 million in 2011 and 2012 if Kinect doesnt cause a long term increase), and Kinect Adventures remaining the packin then it is very likely that Kinect Adventures will hit 20 million.

No, you have obviously missed the point of my argument.  But on that perspective, is the Wii selling as well as it once was?  And while it still sells well, it's not solely because of motion as it now has a well rounded library with plenty of games that range from full on motion games to games like NSMB, SSBB and Galaxy which use no or very little motion.  Kinect does not have this advantage as it is based around full motion.  Never did I say that 360 would not continue to sell.  And if you read my post again you will realize two things:  That I am quite open to the possibility that Kinect could continue to sell well into the future and that I credit Sony for taking motion control to the next level as well... far from exclaiming that motion control has "dried up".