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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

Mummelmann said:
Seece said:
Tigerlure said:
Seece said:

I neeed to keep retracking and think, "am I looking at this wrong" but no, I'm not, and everything you said is 100% correct. People are being incredibly close minded about Kinect potential, thinking it's going to sell 5 mill this holiday then drop off like a rock with no proof. I have to laugh at this "move sales will beat Kinect in the long run". Why? Because they say so. Is all they have.

Also I have to touch on Kinect being a higher calibre than eyetoy again, Kinect and it's games today, are FAR far more impressive than eyetoy at launch and its games.


The reason people think Kinect will drop like a rock is because there is no reason for us to think Kinect will have sustained sales otherwise. When the hype dies down, and it eventually will, nobody will rush out for Kinect. The games certainly aren't captivating the minds of gamers on a wide-scale, and I think Kinect will hit the "Wii effect" with casuals, where people get bored, and stop buying games for it. And considering this isn't a main console, this effect will hit it probably after the holiday.

People were saying that about the Wii, and it had it's best ever christmas last year (4th year too). Again, you didn't give a reason, just what people expect (and yourself), how do you know the hype will die down so soon?


The Wii as a console and as a concept is developed specifically to target this audience and has been from the start so this comparison between the Wii and Kinect is a lot more far fetched than Eyetoy - Kinect. The 360 launched and lived off of Racing games, Shooters, RPG's and stellar Live games for a few bucks, to expect this core product to suddenly become the casual favourite overnight because of a camera that costs nearly as much as a Wii bundle is plain silly.

Like I said in a previous post, if I'm short sighted, I'm pretty pleased about myself regardless.

As far as casuals go the 360 isn't a core console it's just a channel to Kinect. Which isn't even close to the price of a Wii bundle. It's not going to happen overnight, but as word of mouth spreads more and more casuals will be interested.



 

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kowenicki said:

This thread has high potential value to it.. Bookmarked!!


Agreed, one way or the other...



kowenicki said:

This thread has high potential value to it.. Bookmarked!!



same here!



Legend11 said:

I really don't understand people that are making a comparison between Kinect and Eye Toy because it's so flawed in my opinion.  It would be like someone a few years ago making a comparison between the PS3 and Sega Saturn being hard for developers to work with and declaring the PS3 doomed to failure because of it.  Even back then the differences in the situations between the two were pretty obvious and significant (Sony could withstand billions in losses and has very good third-party support).

The same applies between Kinect and Eye Toy.  The amount of money that Microsoft is putting behind Kinect alone pretty much makes the situations completely different (I doubt the Eye Toy and all its games combined would come close to a half billion dollars spent on advertising).  Was the Eye Toy ever on Oprah or Ellen or on morning and late night talk shows?  That along with all the other attention Kinect is getting dwarfs anything the Eye Toy ever got.  Then there's the fact that Microsoft is working hard for third-party games that require a Kinect.  Compare that to the Eye Toy in North America for example only getting 3 third party games in 4 years that actually required it.

Anyways I just wanted to add my opinion but I'm sure there are people that will still ignore all that or attempt to explain it away with logic like advertising, attention, and word of mouth doesn't translate into sales or compare it to a game and claim its sales will be front loaded.  Kinect is hardware so why not treat as such?  Did the PS3/360/Wii sell the majority of their units in the first 2 months they were on sale?  Do controllers sell the majority of their units in their first 2 months?  So does it really make sense to you when you see people compare it to a single video game rather than hardware?

Wow!  Well said dude!

I think there are quite a few people on this site that aren't looking at this objectively.



Really now that is just talking out your ass.Kincect will not sell 20 million in 2 years



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6.5% of the way there already



 

kowenicki said:

So after 1 week it is 7.5% of the way there....

No rounding!!!



 

kowenicki said:

So after 1 week it is 7.5% of the way there....

Well of course, the bulk of the sales will usually be in the first week, but do you think it can sustain these sales?

That depends on how it catches on the holidays and the word of mouth.



Rockstar: Announce Bully 2 already and make gamers proud!

Kojima: Come out with Project S already!

huaxiong90 said:
kowenicki said:

So after 1 week it is 7.5% of the way there....

Well of course, the bulk of the sales will usually be in the first week, but do you think it can sustain these sales?

That depends on how it catches on the holidays and the word of mouth.

No not really.



 

Seece said:
huaxiong90 said:
kowenicki said:

So after 1 week it is 7.5% of the way there....

Well of course, the bulk of the sales will usually be in the first week, but do you think it can sustain these sales?

That depends on how it catches on the holidays and the word of mouth.

No not really.

It's not always the case for products like this, but do you think it can do an additional 1.3 million units in the second week (in those regions alone, that is)?

Kinda hard, but if it does happen, I'll be surprised and impressed at the same time.



Rockstar: Announce Bully 2 already and make gamers proud!

Kojima: Come out with Project S already!