http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-11-12-no-wii-2-until-45-million-us-sales

That makes sense to me. Wii will be at 33m (worst case) to 35.5m (best case) in the USA by the end of 2010. With down years in 2011 / 2012, I'd expect Wii to get to 45m in the USA in Late Summer 2012, probably in August or September. After that, you launch Wii 2 and ride price cuts / new bundles for the original Wii to 50-55m in the USA.

2 years off Wii HD, or Wii 2... That seems like a stretch for a dying console. Yes dying, cause it's at the limit tech wise.

There is no doubt in my mind Nintendo is the only one really working fully on their next system.

Wow, there are so many trolls commenting on that article on the page the OP links to, it's sad.

While I don't think there are any hard rules, I think this is (about) in line with what I am expecting ... Basically, Nintendo will announce and release their next system in 2012.

Probably the next 6 months will be approaching major third party publishers with details about the hardware and strategy of their next system and trying to encourage support for their system. While few details of this system emerge, speculation will run rampant and some analysts (Pachter) will predict that Nintendo will announce the system at E3; E3 2011 will come and go, and be primarily focused on 3DS games that are for Nintendo's holiday releases.

Around March 2012 Nintendo will be forced to announce the existance of their next system because they will need to include in in sales projections for their next fiscal year. Details will be limited at this point in time. E3 2012 will come along and Nintendo will showcase their next system and it will be released before Christmas 2012; possibly much before christmas 2012.

Games make the system, NOT the tech. The PS2 maxed out in just a couple years. That didn't stop it.

Awesome I wonder how many great games I am going to end up with for the system. To be honest I am not sure I will bother with a new home system till its been out for a year or two anyways(hand held too). So many games I have only played through once or twice that I can get a lot more enjoyment time out of. Just form the end of Augest till Jan first there is around 10 or so games total I want for the Wii. Ive already gotten 5 of them with another coming next week Sonic Colors and yet another the week after that DKCR WII.

The XBox 360 is 5 years old, has long ago hit its technical limit, is obsolete technology, and Microsoft is certainly working very hard at R&D of their next console. The PS3 is 4 years old, has long ago hit its technical limit, is obsolete technology, and Sony is certainly working very hard at R&D of their next console. At this point in time, both the PS3 and XBox 360's continued success is tied to the same fundimentals as the Wii's success is; and that is whether developers can come up with interesting games using obsolete technology. Being that the Gameboy thrived for years while being obsolete, and many of its greatest successes came after it was long in the tooth (see Pokemon) I wouldn't say technology is what determines the success of a system ...

Now, why Sony and Microsoft are working hard on their next generation systems is because it takes many years to come up with a concept for your system and to develop the hardware, tools and software to bring it to market; and it is unlikely that either manufacturer would not have released their next system by the end of 2013.

sounds about right