I'm going to pick my top 5 games that I expect to bomb..feel free to pick however many you want - justify the picks though.

"Boogie" EA - Wii/USA - This will not sell well.  The idea is that dancing and singing games could be great on Wii, but I don't think this game will be executed well .  EA probably wants it to sell like 350,000, but I doubt it will crack 120,000 - BOMB.

 "Blue Dragon" Xbox 360 - USA...I think Microsoft wants this to be there answer to the exclsuive Japanese rpgs that Nintendo/Sony get because of better hardware sales in Japan.  I think Microsoft wants this game to appeal to gamers out there on the fence about buying a 360, who are not interested in Halo 3.  The game is well made, but not well known...still I think Microsoft would like sales of 500,000+ to prove that games of this ilk can do well on 360.  But I don't think it will get there - I say it gets buried in the strong 360 lineup and sells around 250,000 in the USA.  Expectations - BOMB...Actual sales - pretty good.

"Metal Gear Solid 4" - PS3 - Japan...In Japan, I don't think PS3 will pass the 6.0 million mark for at least 3 years.  Metal Gear Solid 2 came out for PS2 about 20 months into it's existance on a userbase of 6 million +.  PS3 will be at a quarter of that level or less if MGS4 comes out this year.  Expecting sales of 600k then as Konami probably does for such an ambitious game, is unreasonable..I think 350k to 400k is more likely..unless the game is delayed in Japan..Expectations - bomb - actual sales - pretty good

Little Big Planet - PS3/USA - No idea what Sony thinks this can sell...but I suspect they are hoping for 500k based on the GDC buzz.  I think about 1/3 of that is likely because people do not buy 'the mercedes of consoles' for this type of game play.  At least not right now - this is not as set in stone as the others to me.

GTA - PS3 - USA - Rockstar did not a nice job putting this on 360..360 should be in the 7.5 to 10 million range in the Americas when this comes out...PS3 will be at 3-4.5 million I think in the USA.  This is the type of game people buy a console to play - which favors the cheaper 360.  The game also launches near Halo 3, Madden, etc, so I think overall, the game will do better than expected for 360 and worse (even though expectations were already tempered) for PS3.  I think Rockstar was hoping for around 2 million on PS3, but I think they will only get to 1-1.2 million, which could be a pretty big deal for a company distrusted by it's investors.  I expect the 360 version to sell 3 million+... with 5 or 6 million not out of the question by mid 2008. 

Feel free to pick this apart... 

My guess is Killzone 2 ...

The original Killzone was not that good of a game and did not sell well. The only reason people actually care about this game is that Sony released a pre-rendered video to show off the power of the PS3. I expect that at E3 there will be far better looking and playing games on the PS3 and Killzone 2 will become a distant memory for most gamers.

I'd debate Blue Dragon. Enchant Arm(s) did around 150k in the US and was very un-impressive, not well recieved and had poor reviews (BD has none of those things).

BD should get around 450k within the first 2-3 months, but should get a good december from the kids.

 360 Bombs? Bioshock. Game that should do 1m+ but will struggle to 500k or less.

 DMC4 PS3 - Reduced PS3 sales = low DMC4 sales compared to the 360 sales. Not that the 360 sales will out-do it, but preform very well for Capcom in Japan, and do better in the US.

I expect that dmc4 on xbox 360, and ps3 will not break 2 million + I actually believe that it will sell only around 800k world wide, and bomb

Bioshock- I can't believe not one person has said this game? This game is expected to be goty, and won numerous e3 awards for best game. I only suspect that 600,000 people will buy it, even with all the awards it will earn. Oblivion, if you remember won many goty awards, and only sold 1.6 million on xbox 360. Oblivion was a sequel to a platinum game, while bioshock last 2 games only went gold.

Boogie-I agree with you about this one.

Now about mgs4, I expect the sales to be higher then the ones for mgs3. I expect that the sales of ps3 will increase due to more games coming out on it before it is released, everybody golf 5, folks soul, and afrika are coming out before mgs4. But also, ff13, white knight story, and possibly monster hunter 3 coming 6 months after it. I expect it to break 1 million in japan.

Blue Dragon- I expect that it will get around 150k sales, seeing how most gamers on xbox 360 are geared more towards shooters. Oblivion showed this, being outsold by graw, and cod2.

Heavenly Sword- This is another one that I couldn't believe hasn't been stated. This game will gain alot of great reviews but I don't see it outselling some games, most notably lair. I believe that lair will break a million, while heavenly sword will sell only around 800k.

Oblivion did "sell well" on 360 - It's still the 5th highest selling 360 game to date (behind GoW, Madden, GRAW and CoD2). Unlike most of these other titles, Oblivion ended up selling quite well on PC, forcing sales to be lower than possible. I believe Oblivion sold somewhere near 4-5m+ thus far between both platforms...Not bad by any means, as Morrowind only sold 4m it's entire life, and around 500k on the Xbox.

To the topic Creator: I think 2/5 of those are right. MGS though is huge in Japan and its gunna sell like crazy. By the time it comes out there (late 2007 or early 08) the PS3 will have a userbase of about 1.5-3 million. I would guess about 400k sold there first week.

For Blue Dragon I think it will sell good but not great in the US.

As for GTAIV on the PS3 well yes it will sell better on the 360 cause of the user base but think about this. Europe is where GTA sells big time, and im pretty sure Europeans are gunna buy it on the PS3 because from what I heard the 360 isnt selling the best there. I could be wrong but thats what I heard. In the US though it will sell a hell of a lot on the 360.

MGS huge in Japan?!?

So, MGS3 sold 815k on an install base of 17.3m

Not exactly earth shattering

Oh, I forgot about banjo threesie. Can't believe it :(. That game will sell similar to conker reloaded, I believe. I think that rare will have a hard time gaining money, after leaving their fanbase:nintendo. Games like that won't sell well on xbox 360, due to its userbase. It is not because its small, but most of the userbase plays shooters, which you could seeing how 9 of their 15 games that made it to million+ were shooters, and that the highest selling platform game on xbox 360: was kameo which didn't break 300,000 I think? I expect banjo to sell only 500,000 games.

MGS 4, FF13 , due to the fact that they are on the PS3, which has a very small base, they'll sell well, but no where near the level of their predecessors, probably half as well at best

I expect Blue Dragon to, if not bomb, then struggle in the United States.  It's just not what 360 owners are looking for, to make a generalization.  Oblivion was realistic, bloody, and complicated, while Blue Dragon has cartoon-looking kids as protagonists.  Fantastic pedigree or not, I just can't see the title selling well to the general consumer whom I see buying GRAW or Madden.