Games expected to sell well (qualify well) that will bomb (define) in 200

[TheSource]

I'm going to pick my top 5 games that I expect to bomb..feel free to pick however many you want - justify the picks though.

"Boogie" EA - Wii/USA - This will not sell well.  The idea is that dancing and singing games could be great on Wii, but I don't think this game will be executed well .  EA probably wants it to sell like 350,000, but I doubt it will crack 120,000 - BOMB.

 "Blue Dragon" Xbox 360 - USA...I think Microsoft wants this to be there answer to the exclsuive Japanese rpgs that Nintendo/Sony get because of better hardware sales in Japan.  I think Microsoft wants this game to appeal to gamers out there on the fence about buying a 360, who are not interested in Halo 3.  The game is well made, but not well known...still I think Microsoft would like sales of 500,000+ to prove that games of this ilk can do well on 360.  But I don't think it will get there - I say it gets buried in the strong 360 lineup and sells around 250,000 in the USA.  Expectations - BOMB...Actual sales - pretty good.

"Metal Gear Solid 4" - PS3 - Japan...In Japan, I don't think PS3 will pass the 6.0 million mark for at least 3 years.  Metal Gear Solid 2 came out for PS2 about 20 months into it's existance on a userbase of 6 million +.  PS3 will be at a quarter of that level or less if MGS4 comes out this year.  Expecting sales of 600k then as Konami probably does for such an ambitious game, is unreasonable..I think 350k to 400k is more likely..unless the game is delayed in Japan..Expectations - bomb - actual sales - pretty good

Little Big Planet - PS3/USA - No idea what Sony thinks this can sell...but I suspect they are hoping for 500k based on the GDC buzz.  I think about 1/3 of that is likely because people do not buy 'the mercedes of consoles' for this type of game play.  At least not right now - this is not as set in stone as the others to me.

GTA - PS3 - USA - Rockstar did not a nice job putting this on 360..360 should be in the 7.5 to 10 million range in the Americas when this comes out...PS3 will be at 3-4.5 million I think in the USA.  This is the type of game people buy a console to play - which favors the cheaper 360.  The game also launches near Halo 3, Madden, etc, so I think overall, the game will do better than expected for 360 and worse (even though expectations were already tempered) for PS3.  I think Rockstar was hoping for around 2 million on PS3, but I think they will only get to 1-1.2 million, which could be a pretty big deal for a company distrusted by it's investors.  I expect the 360 version to sell 3 million+... with 5 or 6 million not out of the question by mid 2008. 

Feel free to pick this apart...