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Forums - Nintendo - Wii 2 Definitely NOT in 2011

HappySqurriel on 11 November 2010

Just to add to Jarrod's point ...

There is a 'double edged sword' effect from new hardware which could benefit and/or hurt Nintendo when they release new hardware. What I mean by this is that we're at a point in time where inexpensive hardware is significantly more powerful than either the XBox 360 or PS3 but a large portion of this increased performance will be lost in diminishing returns and/or meaningless enhancements; basically, inexpensive hardware could render HD console games with double the texture or polygon detail, at 60fps rather than 30fps, at 1080p rather than 720p, and so on but the impact (visually) of doing so is minimal even though it requires a lot of additional processing power.

Now, this is a double edged sword because if Nintendo releases a system at that performance level they don't see much benefit from being more powerful than the HD consoles but (unless they are released 2 years after at a much higher price) the successors to the HD consoles don't see much benefit from being more powerful than this system; because it is unlikely that they will be able to produce anything that couldn't be produced on this system with a slight sacrifice to frame-rate or resolution.

 

Certainly, this is not an easy strategy to execute being that you need to sell your system on something other than raw processing power; but Nintendo may be a company that can pull this off given their track record with the DS and Wii, and how people seem to be anticipating the 3DS.



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Squilliam on 11 November 2010
jarrod said:

And the reason PC isn't forging ahead is actually because of the HD consoles, they've basically eaten the PC market and they're holding back PC game development due to their inferior spec.  PC tech can destroy 360 and PS3 in capability, but the market's just not there to support a developer putting in that sort of effort.

That doesn't explain the entirety of what is happening there. You have to consider theres a strong move from one segement of the market towards high end uber rigs and on the other end you have <150W desktop units and <30W laptop units. A lot of PC developers simply don't bother with the high end because they want to capture both ends of the market with the one product. Beyond pure number crunching power, one of the real lessons of this generation for PC developers especially is in the value of artistry and making a game which uses less performance look and play significantly better without taxing systems. They have been lazy in the past because they could take advantage of increases in performance instead. Furthermore you have to consider games like Starcraft 2 which are PC exclusive which aren't as taxing as a lot of console ports.



Tease.

Ail on 11 November 2010
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:


I disagree.

There is no pressure on Sony or Microsoft to release a new console because their profit do not come from hardware sales the way it does for Nintendo.( and while the overall hardware/software revenue is decreasing, the revenue for software on HD consoles is still increasing significantly and that is where they make their profit)

Nintendo is in a bad place because while it is a good idea to be the first to release a new gen machine and get a jumpstart, that only holds true while customers and publishers are getting ready to move on, and currently I don't think either are.

So you would end up with a new gen Wii with 5% of the game library of the current 360 and PS3 and in a few years when the PS4 and the next Xbox comes out the Wii would once again be incompatible with those and publishers would once again have to make a choice between which one they support and we now how that ended this gen...

 

You can only jumpstart a gen when most of the actors expect a new gen to start...

The pressure on Sony/MS wouldn't be internal, it'd be from outside influences.  The press likely being a big one upfront, though analysts and even consumers (specifically 360/PS3's traditional consumers) would likely be forces wanting new systems.  If Wii 2 sells well, that will just add to the pressure from outside.

And the beauty in Nintendo's situation is that a new system (and generational leap) for them isn't a new generation for 3rd parties, it's a lateral move.  There's no new huge R&D sink for most companies, they can just extend their current engines and toolchains to a new base, one following up the most successful home console in history, and a brand that most feel they "missed out" with the past 5 years. It's basically win/win for Nintendo, they'll get content without having to sink much cash to pioneer it, in fact this is basically the exact thing they're doing with 3DS.

You also need to stop looking at this as Wii having "only 5% of the 360/PS3 library"... going forward a Wii 2 would have 100% of the new multiplatform releases, and more significantly it'd impede Sony and Microsoft's own recent overtures (Move and Kinect) into their own expanded market.  Plus Wii 2 would undoubtedly get a healthy portion of older ports for top games from the previous cycle (as Wii did RE4, Okami, Bully, etc)... even worst case, you have to admit it'd be a far, far better situation 3rd party wise than Wii's looking at for the next 2 years.  And it's not like Wii having "only 5% of the PS2 library" held it back much upfront either.

And why exactly would consumers want new systems ? It's not like the PC is pushing the HD consoles to evolve these days ( which was still an issue at the end of the PS2 gen).

Personally as a consumer I don't really push to have to buy new hardware to keep gaming ( that must seem alien to those people that dish out 500$ each time a new Iphone model comes out, but still...)

I'm not talking the massmarket, I'm talking the vocal hardcore.  I'm talking the current 360/PS3 base.  In another year or two, they'll be getting the itch (some are already) and Nintendo coming in with their next gen release will just push the next cycle question to the forefront.  The massmarket will be just transitioning to HD systems though (and it's already started), which is why we'll see Wii 2 within 2 years from now.

And the reason PC isn't forging ahead is actually because of the HD consoles, they've basically eaten the PC market and they're holding back PC game development due to their inferior spec.  PC tech can destroy 360 and PS3 in capability, but the market's just not there to support a developer putting in that sort of effort.


Errr do you really think the 30 or so million people that will purchase a HD console this year are the vocal hardcore ???

Got to wake up, mass market customers have been purchasing a HD console the last 2 years...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

maf on 12 November 2010

http://kotaku.com/5688540/wii-2-is-not-a-must-for-late-2011

This Wii has had a great run, but surely Nintendo's console is primed for replacement? Nintendo of America's top guy, Reggie Fils-Aime, told Kotaku today that a successor to the Wii doesn't have to come out in 2011.



jarrod on 13 November 2010
Ail said:
jarrod said:

I'm not talking the massmarket, I'm talking the vocal hardcore.  I'm talking the current 360/PS3 base.  In another year or two, they'll be getting the itch (some are already) and Nintendo coming in with their next gen release will just push the next cycle question to the forefront.  The massmarket will be just transitioning to HD systems though (and it's already started), which is why we'll see Wii 2 within 2 years from now.

And the reason PC isn't forging ahead is actually because of the HD consoles, they've basically eaten the PC market and they're holding back PC game development due to their inferior spec.  PC tech can destroy 360 and PS3 in capability, but the market's just not there to support a developer putting in that sort of effort.


Errr do you really think the 30 or so million people that will purchase a HD console this year are the vocal hardcore ???

Got to wake up, mass market customers have been purchasing a HD console the last 2 years...

Uh, yes?  Hence me saying "and it's already started".  That's exactly why Nintendo's not going to wait another 2-plus years.

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