Mr Khan said:
Resident_Hazard said:
I've been saying the follow-up to the Wii probably coming or to be announced in 2011 since E3.
With Kinect and Move both launching successfully, the Wii is very quickly going to lose what remains of it's luster. Kinect is pretty rad so far. I have to admit it.
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It's a matter of software to make Wii lose its luster though, and from the general buzz on the street, the real killer app so far is Dance Central, though it remains to be seen how far that will carry them (and nothing negative is meant out of that. One game pretty much made the Wii into a phenomenon early on as well, so who knows?)
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In a large sense, the Wii has been losing luster on the software front for ages. It's turned into the N64 where all the quality games are made by Nintendo and almost no one else. When the N64 reached that level, it might as well no have existed compared to the original Playstation. The Xbox360 and PS3 also have substantial power under their hoods to keep the fight going for a few more years. Even after five years on the market, PC games have hardly advanced at all (technically) over the Xbox360 or PS3. The difference is so small as to be negligable. The Wii, on the other hand, looks increasingly dated and it no longer even has the perceived technical edge with motion control.
I work at Best Buy and the Move and Kinect are performing extremely well. Hell, Kinect--kinda fun. I saw three Xbox's walk out the door with Kinect in tow in a 20 minute span on a Friday afternoon. The Wii is no longer unique, and it's no longer cutting edge. Looking at the sales numbers on this very site, the Wii is losing it's market dominance (ever so slightly) over MS and Sony. Where it often hovered around 49% of the console market share for the past couple years, I noticed today that it's dropped to 47%, and moving into the holiday season with Move and Kinect vying for shelf space, I would't be surprised to see the Wii's market share drop to 45% by the turn of the year.
Yeah, you're right, the Wii was carried strongly by a single game for a very long time. It needs a helluva lot more than that now. Wii Sports is not unique anymore, and Kinect, at least, is doing motion gaming in a much more unique and--where perception is concerned--advanced manner than Sony or Nintendo.
Nintendo will need to upgrade to maintain their momentum. I've been saying it since E3--and was scoffed at repeatedly. I'm not saying that 2011 is when the next system will hit, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an announcement at E3 2011. If anything, while the Xbox360 and PS3 are likely going to be maintaining their steam through the end of 2011, the Wii certainly won't. But, the 3DS will be holding Nintendo at the top.
The way I see it: The Xbox 360 and PS3 will maintain their current (sales) levels, give or take, through 2012--especially if Move and Kinect continue adding strength to the machines. But the Wii will be fading fast. Nintendo will focus most of their attention on the 3DS, so we really won't be paying attention to the Wii (as if many of us are now anyway). Late 2012, the successor to the Wii will launch. And it will be drastically different from the Wii--as in, it won't be something as simple as "Wii HD." Hell, the PS3 is now the "Wii HD." Frankly, I don't think the 3DS is that much of a leap in design over the DS line. It adds some graphical bells and whistles, and some of the tech of the Wii with motion sensors, but other than that--it doesn't change up anything very much. The successor to the Wii, however, I believe will be a drastic change. It'll be technically powerful, maintain motion control in a much more streamlined manner, and will likely feature some new wackiness we can't really fathom.
If the 3DS isn't as strong as Nintendo hopes and if the Wii fades faster than expected, the new system could come at the end of 2011.
May not be true, but it looks fairly logical. And again, Kinect is pretty cool. I'm probably going to up and buy the thing pretty soon.