at what rate? pre-orders were only 250k and well kinect may do well in the first few months it will only go downhill from there 

Can I have your future reading device?  I could make some wicked cash on bets with that.

Nah sorry my ability to observe and common sense aren't for sale 

I'm just going to go point to point.

- There is no way you or anyone else could possibly know that only half of Xbox 360 failures were replaced. Unless MS released a statement you and anyone would be guessing. The warrenty covered THE common failure which only effect high numbers of early models. Once MS instituted the 3 year warrenty they replaced all unmodified Xbox 360s for free with a more reliable unit and as even more reliable models were manufactured the failure rate droped down to almost nothing with the release of the Slim. You are taking numbers from unscientific polling for granted ans assuming both the worst and that people trashed their replacible machines. The only RROD users who didn't  get replacements for free were kids who modded their boxes or tried to fix them themselves, voiding their warrenty. The RROD fault usualy happens early on in the machines life so 3 years is kind of overkill since the warrenty of the replacement is the same. As for software sales, it's true that the PS3 has had very strong software sales, due to it's popularity in Europe and Japan. But MS dominates HD sales in the US where the market is the largest. The only market that MS can't really improve much in is Japan, but Europe could go either way. However, who knows how Kinect will effect the Japanese market. Are they tired of motion controls, or hungry for something new and exciting? Time will tell.

-Like I said, MS doesn't like to anounce their big games while they are still trying to sell their current crop. For all you know MS could have the greatest lineup of exclusives the world has ever seen. I'm not assuming they do, but history has shown that MS keeps it's linup a mystery while Sony and Nintendo spill the beans early. You shouldn't assume MS has nothing when time and time again MS has shown very strong linups, year after year. Xbox 360 exclusives might not interest you, but millions of other games love them. This has happened nearly every year the Xbox 360 has been on the market. At the end of the year people complain that MS doesn't have anything for the next year. But then the next year comes and we find out that they have big titles nearly every month. As for the deffinition of exclusives. In my opinion if you walk into a Game Stop and a game is only available on one console, it's exclusive. There's a reason that VGchartz doesn't track PC game sales, this is a CONSOLE war not a "Platform War". You can disagree with me on this, but not everyine with an Xbox 360/PS3 has a PC rig that can run games. Oh, and you're just guessing again about Splinter Cell Conviction. It could go multiplatform, but you shouldn't take it for granted untill it it's anounced.

-Exclusives and features do matter, but that's not all that matters. More people pay to play Call of Duty on Xbox Live than play it for free on PSN. There are a lot of reasons for this, but it really doesn't matter. Both machines have exclusive games and features. You can't possibly know whats more compelling to casuals. You're just assuming they are like you. US gaming has shifted, in a big way, to the Xbox 360. I don't see that changing at this point just like I don't see Japan suddingly shifting away from PS3. Europe is a toss up.

-It seems to me you're hoping they are equal and cancel each other out. Move has sold well, but it's not going crazy. That's fact. What's not fact is the future of Kinect. Honestly I don't know what will happen. That's why it's a good discussion topic and important in assessing the future sales of both consoles. If Kinect fails Sony will have an easier time catching up. If Kinect starts a new fad with soccer moms and family fun nights MS could pull far ahead. That unknown is a huge factor.

-Upon reading your second post I have to say I don't believe you are being objective. You are clearly a fan of the Playstation brand, nothing wrong with that, but you've let youself "forgive and forget" you're way to a PS3 2012 future that is hardly set in stone.

ike I said, there's nothing wrong with being a fan, but I think you are ignoring a lot of important data and assuming too much.

Its true what they say I guess....common sense isn't so common

Edit:  The post above me nailed it on the head.

-I'm actually basing it on the scientific poll in 2010 http://www.nofussreviews.com/survey-results-2010.php, and while your right I have no idea if half the models were repaired the fact that only half of them fail in the way the extended warrenty covers suggest it's about that, and that fact that a lot of them fail more then once suggest that the number is going to be higher then half not lower, not to mention all the people that just ditched it in the first year when the failrate was 68% and there was no warranty, so yeah I'm going best possible case for MS with the facts we have. As for software sales ps3 has more software sales in 2009 thats a fact, and I looked it up for 2010 and couldn't find MSes numbers, they weren't listed http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82596/big-three-shipment-update-through-september-2010/

-Bull, we all knew about halo reach, gears of war, fable and even alan wake long before they came out, the only games we don't know about in advance is timed exclusives and those end up on ps3 so in the long run who really cares that they came out for 360 first lol at the console war, my definition of exclusive is THE ACTUAL definition, grab a dictionary  

-No theres only two reasons for it, 360 is considered the shooter console, and when marketed it only had 360s logo at the end, thats it, if you take any genre besides shooters or sports popular in usa ps3 has more and 360s, and while they both have exclusive games, ps3 has far better ones due to MS losing so many good ones (or rather only buying them for a year in the first place and lying about it), and the only thing about the 360 more appealing to casuals is the price point, as for the whole USA thing your ignoring every other country, Sony has a lock on almost all developing countries, thats dozens of countries, it's gaining ground in NA, and is pulling ahead in europe, the only place the 360 is winning is the usa 

-Neither one has more appeal then the others and move works with more types of games, the only thing kinect has going for it is the advertisement budget and that doesn't last forever 

-I'm not that much of a fan, honestly, I don't get caught up in hype and misinformation and false advertisement as other people, I was right about ME coming to ps3, I was right about valve making a turn around, I was right about the GTA DLC and I will be right about splinter cell conviction and probably about kinect 

I'm not ignoring data, I'm ignoring hype and misleading statements, things you should ignore when being objective 

you should know by now after so much following the sales that

Kinect or any othe periheral and any mid-cycle launch wouldn't help that platform so much

saying that,don't think i am saying kinect won't be a hit

it will be but just because it is a mid-cycle push,it is very expensive and poeple have to buy a separate console for it,don't expect it to be a hit like Wii or even anywhere near it

and it will be even less outside NA

so don't come out everytime sales thread happen and say the same thing,i am not necessarily telling you this but i have seen many similar post.

Kinect or even move can't be compared to previous mid life cycle boosts (seriously have there even been any), that's all your opinion, which is fine, don't tell me I can't have mine just because you don't agree with it.

i am not telling you not to have that opinion

but people just come and post that thing again and again

now i didn't want to be rude

but how is the topic debatable when people come out like

wait till kinect launches and it will blow away competition and rocket sales

now you didn't give that same comment but it comes out like that

when being on this site you should know that Kinect or MOVE or anything else won't be enough,it is just a substanial push

That doesn't mean it's going to happen.

There is a chance it could and a chance it couldn't.

X chance it will beat the Xbox 360 and Y chance it won't. What is X and Y? I unno, an unknown variable. But in situations like these all you will get is unknown variable.

Therefore it's stupid when people say "It has a 60% of outselling this blah, blah, blah." There is no way to predict an exact percent, because in order to do that you would need to know the...Hell I don't even know.

Plus there may be events in the future that could upset the chances. So? Only Chuck Norris and Saxton Hale know.

Rant Over.