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Forums - General - Democrats are another Republican Party.

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

well i don't want to get into a debate so i won't read anyones post and i'll try not to post anything worth debating!

i agree? Dem's have lost there edge and most of there principals, but Rep: are just mindless idiots anyway so we lose until we can get bipartisanship which won't happen for another decade.


You agree the Dems have lost their edge, but think the republicans are just idiots... but think it won't be better until the Democrats and Republicans work together... which presumibly would involve the Democrats moving even more right when the Republicans meeting them at the center?

You do realize how those thoughts are incongruent, right?

 

Also, as for bi-partisianship.


Should happen in 2012.


The Republicans will win a big landslide this election... and nobody will want to do anything... because the Republicans winning a big landslide this election means basically a deadlocked house and senate.

 

While in 2012 Obama will win reelection Bush style while losing even more congressional control.

After a failed first term Obama will be thinking about his legacy and the Republicans now in control will have to do something.



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Personally I perfer the Republican Congress/Democrat President setup.


Leaves the Republicans with the pursestrings (Which does work... when they don't have a rubber stamp for some of their stuff.)

And Leaves the Democrats with a Veto power to strike down any infringements various freedom. (Which they only care about when they don't have full control of the government.)

When either party gets too much control they just lose their ideals because hell... they have POWER.


Not that I get the appeal of power... seems like more trouble then it's worth honestly.



Kasz216 said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

well i don't want to get into a debate so i won't read anyones post and i'll try not to post anything worth debating!

i agree? Dem's have lost there edge and most of there principals, but Rep: are just mindless idiots anyway so we lose until we can get bipartisanship which won't happen for another decade.


You agree the Dems have lost their edge, but think the republicans are just idiots... but think it won't be better until the Democrats and Republicans work together... which presumibly would involve the Democrats moving even more right when the Republicans meeting them at the center?

You do realize how those thoughts are incongruent, right?

 

Also, as for bi-partisianship.


Should happen in 2012.


The Republicans will win a big landslide this election... and nobody will want to do anything... because the Republicans winning a big landslide this election means basically a deadlocked house and senate.

 

While in 2012 Obama will win reelection Bush style while losing even more congressional control.

After a failed first term Obama will be thinking about his legacy and the Republicans now in control will have to do something.


yes yes and agreed on all points. moving more to the right? thats to extreme for me just like Reps staying where they are?

the solution is team work and it won't happen until they are made to but i don't know how that will happen?

(puzzled look on face)

besides i'm not voting anymore cause i see where it gets us! dead in the water?



Kasz216 said:
whatever said:
Kasz216 said:


Yeah, except in all of our history of trying that... it's never worked.

Kensyian economics has never worked... It didn't work under FDR, It didn't work under Nixon... all it ever does is create a double dip that prolongs the recessession and makes things worse.  It will happen again here.  We had some good GDP growth this quarter but it was all due to inventories rising in quanitity higher then expected.  Which means it will be a drag in further quarters likely leading to a big double dip.  Private spending will decrease with public spending... because the incentives to spend will disapear.

 

Furthermore, we're recovery from a downturn in the economy that was caused by government intervention causing a downturn in realesetate markets across the country, that cause the derivitives market to crash.

The economic downturn's problem was basically government interefereing and causing problems that the banks couldn't account for, because such problems were unheard of and impossible to happen in normal circumstances.

I know we've already hashed this out in another thread.  I just wanted to point out that your last 2 paragraphs are far from the consensus, and are more in the minority, of the real cause of the global economic downturn.  That cause being the unregulated derivatives market was itself the problem.

Except... it's not the minority viewpoint.  I just don't think you understand the arguements of the people who blame the derititives market primarily.

Which is, if it wasn't for the derivititives market then real estate downturns wouldn't of caused as big a crash.

It's the exact same viewpoint.  It just depends on if you want to put the blame on the first few dominoes or the rest that fell.

Considering the first few provide no benefit... while the rest (the deritivitives market) are repsonsible for most of the wealth in the world....

 

Ask anyone, and they'll tell you the derivitives crash was caused by real estate being down in all sectors which is virtually unheard of, and never really happened in the history of real estate.  Derivities are build and balanced so that there will always be something in each one that will back up the failures even a vast majority in each one fails.  However when they ALL fail.   Nothing in the world is going to stop that.

Blaming the derivitives market would be like blaming a company from protecting itself from fire burning down some it's factories, but not protecting itself from fire burning down all 8 factories across the country simaltaniously.

 

People blaming the derivitives market are really blaming them for not factoring in the governments incompetance and inability to not damage the country in knew and unthought of ways.

 

Derivitives CAN NOT crash by themselves.

Derivitives are basically like playing Roullette where you have 3-1 odds on Red and Black.

So you bet on Red and Black and for every 100 you bet you get 300.

The ONLY way you lose is if 0 or 00 comes up in a very statistically unlikely number of chances.  Like 100 times in a row.  Basically something that's never happened before... without a rigged system.

Which is why you want to avoid rigged systems.

People and least of all governments don't have perfect insights... so fixing it so it's all black now, might lead to problems in the future.

As was the case with the real estate market.

That's not the argument at all.  The argument is that this market grew to a value which was many times larger than the assets covered by the derivatives.  It became a gambling casino with no limits.  We know it's value is at least 600 trillions dollars.  The subprime mortgage market is estimated in the hundred of billions.  The derivatives market should not be fragile enough that a loss of less than 0.1% should bring the whole thing down, which is what would have happened without the bailout.

As for it being government intervention in the housing market (through the CRA), that caused the "bad" loans, that has also been debated and most agree that was not the case.  Most of the bad loans weren't even from banks covered by the CRA.  I can dig up the analysis, but I'm at work and don't have time to do it now.



whatever said:
Kasz216 said:
whatever said:
Kasz216 said:


Yeah, except in all of our history of trying that... it's never worked.

Kensyian economics has never worked... It didn't work under FDR, It didn't work under Nixon... all it ever does is create a double dip that prolongs the recessession and makes things worse.  It will happen again here.  We had some good GDP growth this quarter but it was all due to inventories rising in quanitity higher then expected.  Which means it will be a drag in further quarters likely leading to a big double dip.  Private spending will decrease with public spending... because the incentives to spend will disapear.

 

Furthermore, we're recovery from a downturn in the economy that was caused by government intervention causing a downturn in realesetate markets across the country, that cause the derivitives market to crash.

The economic downturn's problem was basically government interefereing and causing problems that the banks couldn't account for, because such problems were unheard of and impossible to happen in normal circumstances.

I know we've already hashed this out in another thread.  I just wanted to point out that your last 2 paragraphs are far from the consensus, and are more in the minority, of the real cause of the global economic downturn.  That cause being the unregulated derivatives market was itself the problem.

Except... it's not the minority viewpoint.  I just don't think you understand the arguements of the people who blame the derititives market primarily.

Which is, if it wasn't for the derivititives market then real estate downturns wouldn't of caused as big a crash.

It's the exact same viewpoint.  It just depends on if you want to put the blame on the first few dominoes or the rest that fell.

Considering the first few provide no benefit... while the rest (the deritivitives market) are repsonsible for most of the wealth in the world....

 

Ask anyone, and they'll tell you the derivitives crash was caused by real estate being down in all sectors which is virtually unheard of, and never really happened in the history of real estate.  Derivities are build and balanced so that there will always be something in each one that will back up the failures even a vast majority in each one fails.  However when they ALL fail.   Nothing in the world is going to stop that.

Blaming the derivitives market would be like blaming a company from protecting itself from fire burning down some it's factories, but not protecting itself from fire burning down all 8 factories across the country simaltaniously.

 

People blaming the derivitives market are really blaming them for not factoring in the governments incompetance and inability to not damage the country in knew and unthought of ways.

 

Derivitives CAN NOT crash by themselves.

Derivitives are basically like playing Roullette where you have 3-1 odds on Red and Black.

So you bet on Red and Black and for every 100 you bet you get 300.

The ONLY way you lose is if 0 or 00 comes up in a very statistically unlikely number of chances.  Like 100 times in a row.  Basically something that's never happened before... without a rigged system.

Which is why you want to avoid rigged systems.

People and least of all governments don't have perfect insights... so fixing it so it's all black now, might lead to problems in the future.

As was the case with the real estate market.

That's not the argument at all.  The argument is that this market grew to a value which was many times larger than the assets covered by the derivatives.  It became a gambling casino with no limits.  We know it's value is at least 600 trillions dollars.  The subprime mortgage market is estimated in the hundred of billions.  The derivatives market should not be fragile enough that a loss of less than 0.1% should bring the whole thing down, which is what would have happened without the bailout.

As for it being government intervention in the housing market (through the CRA), that caused the "bad" loans, that has also been debated and most agree that was not the case.  Most of the bad loans weren't even from banks covered by the CRA.  I can dig up the analysis, but I'm at work and don't have time to do it now.

600 trillion? How much of Earth's GDP would that be?

Shit...



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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Mr Khan said:
whatever said:
Kasz216 said:
whatever said:
Kasz216 said:


Yeah, except in all of our history of trying that... it's never worked.

Kensyian economics has never worked... It didn't work under FDR, It didn't work under Nixon... all it ever does is create a double dip that prolongs the recessession and makes things worse.  It will happen again here.  We had some good GDP growth this quarter but it was all due to inventories rising in quanitity higher then expected.  Which means it will be a drag in further quarters likely leading to a big double dip.  Private spending will decrease with public spending... because the incentives to spend will disapear.

 

Furthermore, we're recovery from a downturn in the economy that was caused by government intervention causing a downturn in realesetate markets across the country, that cause the derivitives market to crash.

The economic downturn's problem was basically government interefereing and causing problems that the banks couldn't account for, because such problems were unheard of and impossible to happen in normal circumstances.

I know we've already hashed this out in another thread.  I just wanted to point out that your last 2 paragraphs are far from the consensus, and are more in the minority, of the real cause of the global economic downturn.  That cause being the unregulated derivatives market was itself the problem.

Except... it's not the minority viewpoint.  I just don't think you understand the arguements of the people who blame the derititives market primarily.

Which is, if it wasn't for the derivititives market then real estate downturns wouldn't of caused as big a crash.

It's the exact same viewpoint.  It just depends on if you want to put the blame on the first few dominoes or the rest that fell.

Considering the first few provide no benefit... while the rest (the deritivitives market) are repsonsible for most of the wealth in the world....

 

Ask anyone, and they'll tell you the derivitives crash was caused by real estate being down in all sectors which is virtually unheard of, and never really happened in the history of real estate.  Derivities are build and balanced so that there will always be something in each one that will back up the failures even a vast majority in each one fails.  However when they ALL fail.   Nothing in the world is going to stop that.

Blaming the derivitives market would be like blaming a company from protecting itself from fire burning down some it's factories, but not protecting itself from fire burning down all 8 factories across the country simaltaniously.

 

People blaming the derivitives market are really blaming them for not factoring in the governments incompetance and inability to not damage the country in knew and unthought of ways.

 

Derivitives CAN NOT crash by themselves.

Derivitives are basically like playing Roullette where you have 3-1 odds on Red and Black.

So you bet on Red and Black and for every 100 you bet you get 300.

The ONLY way you lose is if 0 or 00 comes up in a very statistically unlikely number of chances.  Like 100 times in a row.  Basically something that's never happened before... without a rigged system.

Which is why you want to avoid rigged systems.

People and least of all governments don't have perfect insights... so fixing it so it's all black now, might lead to problems in the future.

As was the case with the real estate market.

That's not the argument at all.  The argument is that this market grew to a value which was many times larger than the assets covered by the derivatives.  It became a gambling casino with no limits.  We know it's value is at least 600 trillions dollars.  The subprime mortgage market is estimated in the hundred of billions.  The derivatives market should not be fragile enough that a loss of less than 0.1% should bring the whole thing down, which is what would have happened without the bailout.

As for it being government intervention in the housing market (through the CRA), that caused the "bad" loans, that has also been debated and most agree that was not the case.  Most of the bad loans weren't even from banks covered by the CRA.  I can dig up the analysis, but I'm at work and don't have time to do it now.

600 trillion? How much of Earth's GDP would that be?

Shit...

20 times Earth's GDP.

It's why attempting to regulate derivitives is a complety stupid impossible act.

There is no way to get the proper number of funds to cover said derivitives...

and even if they banks did, this would lead to exactly what the big bank bailouts wanted to avoid...

a GIANT loss in credit lending.  Since all the real money and assets would be needed to be held in reserve.

Of course you could try and shrink the numbers and worth of the derivitives instead... which would take massive amounts of wealth out of the economic system.

Also a huge economic disaster.



whatever said:
Kasz216 said:
whatever said:
Kasz216 said:


Yeah, except in all of our history of trying that... it's never worked.

Kensyian economics has never worked... It didn't work under FDR, It didn't work under Nixon... all it ever does is create a double dip that prolongs the recessession and makes things worse.  It will happen again here.  We had some good GDP growth this quarter but it was all due to inventories rising in quanitity higher then expected.  Which means it will be a drag in further quarters likely leading to a big double dip.  Private spending will decrease with public spending... because the incentives to spend will disapear.

 

Furthermore, we're recovery from a downturn in the economy that was caused by government intervention causing a downturn in realesetate markets across the country, that cause the derivitives market to crash.

The economic downturn's problem was basically government interefereing and causing problems that the banks couldn't account for, because such problems were unheard of and impossible to happen in normal circumstances.

I know we've already hashed this out in another thread.  I just wanted to point out that your last 2 paragraphs are far from the consensus, and are more in the minority, of the real cause of the global economic downturn.  That cause being the unregulated derivatives market was itself the problem.

Except... it's not the minority viewpoint.  I just don't think you understand the arguements of the people who blame the derititives market primarily.

Which is, if it wasn't for the derivititives market then real estate downturns wouldn't of caused as big a crash.

It's the exact same viewpoint.  It just depends on if you want to put the blame on the first few dominoes or the rest that fell.

Considering the first few provide no benefit... while the rest (the deritivitives market) are repsonsible for most of the wealth in the world....

 

Ask anyone, and they'll tell you the derivitives crash was caused by real estate being down in all sectors which is virtually unheard of, and never really happened in the history of real estate.  Derivities are build and balanced so that there will always be something in each one that will back up the failures even a vast majority in each one fails.  However when they ALL fail.   Nothing in the world is going to stop that.

Blaming the derivitives market would be like blaming a company from protecting itself from fire burning down some it's factories, but not protecting itself from fire burning down all 8 factories across the country simaltaniously.

 

People blaming the derivitives market are really blaming them for not factoring in the governments incompetance and inability to not damage the country in knew and unthought of ways.

 

Derivitives CAN NOT crash by themselves.

Derivitives are basically like playing Roullette where you have 3-1 odds on Red and Black.

So you bet on Red and Black and for every 100 you bet you get 300.

The ONLY way you lose is if 0 or 00 comes up in a very statistically unlikely number of chances.  Like 100 times in a row.  Basically something that's never happened before... without a rigged system.

Which is why you want to avoid rigged systems.

People and least of all governments don't have perfect insights... so fixing it so it's all black now, might lead to problems in the future.

As was the case with the real estate market.

That's not the argument at all.  The argument is that this market grew to a value which was many times larger than the assets covered by the derivatives.  It became a gambling casino with no limits.  We know it's value is at least 600 trillions dollars.  The subprime mortgage market is estimated in the hundred of billions.  The derivatives market should not be fragile enough that a loss of less than 0.1% should bring the whole thing down, which is what would have happened without the bailout.

As for it being government intervention in the housing market (through the CRA), that caused the "bad" loans, that has also been debated and most agree that was not the case.  Most of the bad loans weren't even from banks covered by the CRA.  I can dig up the analysis, but I'm at work and don't have time to do it now.

It's not fragile though.  To upset the derivitives market, it took something that has never happened before.

As for the analysis done on the CRA.  Your misreading it... it's not JUST the loans failing, but how those loans effected the housing market in general.

The CRA caused a huge country wide housing bubble crashing.  The housing bubble was caused by the CRA.

Well the CRA and the Fed keeping interest rates so low.

 

Heck in some ways this recession is the cause of attempts to prevent a recession with the Dot.com bust.



Kasz216 said:
whatever said:
Kasz216 said:

Except... it's not the minority viewpoint.  I just don't think you understand the arguements of the people who blame the derititives market primarily.

Which is, if it wasn't for the derivititives market then real estate downturns wouldn't of caused as big a crash.

It's the exact same viewpoint.  It just depends on if you want to put the blame on the first few dominoes or the rest that fell.

Considering the first few provide no benefit... while the rest (the deritivitives market) are repsonsible for most of the wealth in the world....

 

Ask anyone, and they'll tell you the derivitives crash was caused by real estate being down in all sectors which is virtually unheard of, and never really happened in the history of real estate.  Derivities are build and balanced so that there will always be something in each one that will back up the failures even a vast majority in each one fails.  However when they ALL fail.   Nothing in the world is going to stop that.

Blaming the derivitives market would be like blaming a company from protecting itself from fire burning down some it's factories, but not protecting itself from fire burning down all 8 factories across the country simaltaniously.

 

People blaming the derivitives market are really blaming them for not factoring in the governments incompetance and inability to not damage the country in knew and unthought of ways.

 

Derivitives CAN NOT crash by themselves.

Derivitives are basically like playing Roullette where you have 3-1 odds on Red and Black.

So you bet on Red and Black and for every 100 you bet you get 300.

The ONLY way you lose is if 0 or 00 comes up in a very statistically unlikely number of chances.  Like 100 times in a row.  Basically something that's never happened before... without a rigged system.

Which is why you want to avoid rigged systems.

People and least of all governments don't have perfect insights... so fixing it so it's all black now, might lead to problems in the future.

As was the case with the real estate market.

That's not the argument at all.  The argument is that this market grew to a value which was many times larger than the assets covered by the derivatives.  It became a gambling casino with no limits.  We know it's value is at least 600 trillions dollars.  The subprime mortgage market is estimated in the hundred of billions.  The derivatives market should not be fragile enough that a loss of less than 0.1% should bring the whole thing down, which is what would have happened without the bailout.

As for it being government intervention in the housing market (through the CRA), that caused the "bad" loans, that has also been debated and most agree that was not the case.  Most of the bad loans weren't even from banks covered by the CRA.  I can dig up the analysis, but I'm at work and don't have time to do it now.

It's not fragile though.  To upset the derivitives market, it took something that has never happened before.

As for the analysis done on the CRA.  Your misreading it... it's not JUST the loans failing, but how those loans effected the housing market in general.

The CRA caused a huge country wide housing bubble crashing.  The housing bubble was caused by the CRA.

Well the CRA and the Fed keeping interest rates so low.

 

Heck in some ways this recession is the cause of attempts to prevent a recession with the Dot.com bust.

Somewhat of an abuse of the CRA, though. I imagine that was meant for lower-income people (not too low, but lower than the median) to be able to buy a home, not for middle-income people to flip houses, which was part of the bubble



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

At this point in time, I think anyone who thinks that there is a dramatic difference between the Democrats and the Republicans on most issues (or in how they would govern) is very naive.

Now, Obama has disappointed a lot of progressive voters because they believed he was very progressive (and he may be) and he had every opportunity to do whatever he wanted but he failed to achieve a fraction of what they expected. The reason for this is simple, there are so many special interest groups with conflicting objectives that "own" most of the Democrats in government it is nearly impossible to get something meaningful passed; and this isn't any different from the Republicans, except that they have a different group of special interest groups with conflicting objective that "own" them.



@gregory:  I think that hes mad at the fact that president Obama has done the opposite of almost everything he said he would do in his campaign.