I think it will just do 9million, though will not 'reach' 10million.

already at week six its dropped behind halo3 week6 [even with 3x the install base]

Halo3 week6 113,878

Halo reach week 6 110,909

COD BO is going to destroy its sales

Expect COD BO on the xbox360 to overtake halo reach by the end of the year.

Actually the more I think about it, perhaps 9 million is not guaranteed.

You think too much... or maybe not enough. You're definitely thinking wrong.

While week 6 was slightly smaller on Reach, you aren't considering week 1 - 5 was considerably bigger. Hence, its on track to easily out perform Halo 3. By the end of the holdiay Reach will be over 7 million.

It took Halo 3 two holidays to hit 9 million.

I don't want to troll, flame, insult or anything, but this is the bullshit I hear every week. People are getting tired of Halo blablabla.

And having Killzone 3 and Socom in your sig does not boost your credibility.

Yeah, yeah it will.

You also forgot to mention that Halo 3 launched almost 2 weeks later than Reach, so Halo 3 will have started to hit the holiday buying season earlier than Reach. While Reach's week 6 ended in the middle of Oct., Halo 3's week 6 ended in November.

It SHOULD easily outpace Halo 3... BY A LOT. The 360 has almost 3 times the userbase now compared to when Halo 3 released, and an already established base of 11 million Halo 3 owners out there. This should count! It would be fail if it didn't manage to get more sales than Halo 3, imo. Halo is MS biggest franchise, and imo it doesn't really look like the are any major growth to the series. It barely even managed (even after adjustments) to top Halo 3's enormous week 1 numbers. So I guess there is some growth to the series, but I think MS hoped for a bigger increase in audience. Maybe I'm just expecting too much from the series, but with 28 million more consoles out there, and with 11 million Halo 3 already in consumers hands, I guess I would expect a bigger increase than 500.000 for 6 weeks (about 8,5% increase, actually bigger increase than launch week) for my (by far) biggest franchise (1st week Reach > Halo 3 by 200.000 (about 6% increase), so 300.000 copies for the remaining 4 weeks), that should be growing (at least by 10% to be noteworthy, IMO). Also, as someone already pointed out, Halo 3's week 6 was stronger than Reach's week 6 (only by a mere 3000, but still), even with having 28 million potential buyers less than today's userbase. Maybe I'm unrealistic with these expectations, but I don't particularly care, I still expected a bigger increase.

Will it Reach 9 million copies? Yes, easily...

MW is/was a growing franchise, although growing at an insane pace. Look at the differences in numbers between the two games' first weeks and so on! I'll see how Black Ops do compared to MW2 before I fully applaud the strong sales of Halo Reach, since MW2 and Halo 3 pretty much have similar userbase on the 360.

Oh, and if we are to believe the rumors/news coming from MS about releasing Halo games more frequently, I think the next Halo will be released early and steal some sales from Reach. So I don't think Reach will top Halo 3 that easily (maybe if heavily bundled), at least not by much.

D'oh.

Can we please stop with the obvious threads?

On the one hand you get the "will GT5 sell more than Forza" type stuff and on the other stuff like this.

Halo has a huge, locked in fanbase.  Even with CoD, etc. it should reach 9M with ease looking at the numbers so far.

Basically, to not reach 9M the title would have to collapse in sales which is just so unlikely its not worth really considering.