There probably is a topic similar to this floating around somewhere, so forgive me if there is, but I didn't see one so it's fair game to me :P. Anyway, all signs seem to point to Nintendo's new handheld being a major success, going off its still massive selling predecessor that will soon become the best selling gaming hardware of all time. As well as the fact that its game lineup, particularly 3rd party, looks very strong for a Nintendo platform. However, a select few out there like Malstrom are not so convinced, pointing to its similarity with the N64 in that Nintendo is obsessing over technology, eventually leading to their decline.

I partially see where these warning signs from people come from, as it seems like Nintendo is again abandoning the uncharted roads of the expanded audience and is retreating back to the red ocean of purely core gaming, which they will most likely be outgunned by the major multi-divison corporations Sony and MS. But then again, with the sheer strength of this gaming library so far, is it really possible for this hardware NOT to sell at least respectable numbers?

My take is this: The 3DS will be more similar to the SNES and (to an extent) the PS2 then anything. By this I mean, it will be a cherished platform by the core, as it will have several quality games that appeal to their tastes, and perhaps a few movie buffs who can't wait for an affordable way to watch 3D movies. But in terms of expanding the market and reaching new audiences and new potential, I don't really see it happening with this platform, unless Nintendo has some new surprise they haven't mentioned. And because of this, I don't think the 3DS will outsell its predecessor. It will be primarily a core gaming system, which most here would probably see as a good thing, but in terms of a business standpoint, might not work out great in the long run as it will lose some of the expanded audience that was brought in with the DS.

I can even see some doomsday theories emerge when the DS outsells the 3DS for a long period of time similar to the PS2 outselling the PS3 for awhile. But then again, one can't help but ask, does it really NEED to outsell its predecessor? The DS could end up with 200 million sales, so it's almost impossible for the 3DS to reach those numbers anyway. I think in terms of relative success, this platform will be a step down, selling somewhere in the range of 90-100 million. But at the same time, this still isn't a bad thing. The masses of non gamers will have little reason to pick one up, which may hurt it, but this will be offset by the massive library of quality games being cranked out by third parties, similar to what made the PS2 a success.

I just hope it doesn't take a 20 million selling handheld this time to again make Nintendo wisen up and go a new direction.

I'd say Nintendo is very smart in targeting their machines at core market.

When DS was realeased handhelds had absolutly no competition for portable gaming. Today there's three emerging competitors - smartphone's , tablets and ipods. So people will have much more options to get their casual 5 minute long game and 3ds/psp can't compete with prices on apple store or android market.

So going after people who want full normal game experience on the move is smart choice if we look at it from broder several years long perspective.

Well Mr.Downer I gotta say I disagree.

If anyone can pull off an expensive handheld its Nintendo, Nintendo has always dominated the handheld industry its not even a contest when Sony , Sega or NeoGeo came into the fray. GameBoy and now DS are sinanymous with quality. People trust Nintendo as a handheld manufacturer and that trust isn't going to just disolve due to higher cost and better visuals.

Now think your power statement through. You mention Nintendo64 as Red Ocean and that Nintendo stopped expanding the market and focusing rather on power. Sure the 3DS is more powerful then the DS but it is by know means a extremely powerful handheld, the PSP2 is bound to pack a bigger whallop for a bigger price. The 3DS is inbetween X-Box and Wii from my knowledge and that is the natural progression, its not like Nintendo decided to go for graphics and power and made it a portable PS3 they went with the same progression they have always had. They had to progress and they knew that if they didn't offer consumers a revolutionary new feature casuals and DS owners would not be in any rush to upgrade if ever.

So I think its actually going to work out in Nintendo's favour. Rather then simply releasing a DS2 with slightly improved graphics Nintendo went the extra mile to target the Blue Ocean casual gamers. Disagree? Look at one of the launch window titles Nintendogs Cats can they really do much more to target the casual consumer?

I think the 3DS will meet Nintendo's expectations this fiscal year selling over 4-million units. I think over the next year it will sell around 25-million more units. I expect lifetime sales of about 130-million similiar to what the DS has today or as high as 160-million units if Nintendo manages to get the hardcore market back. If Nintendo manages to lower the price over the years it could even perform better. I also suspect most of those casuals who owned DS will upgrade to 3DS naturally when they see their favorite casual titles move over. Infact the

Nintendo is simply re-investing in the hardcore market, the hardcore market buys more games then the casual and while they don't move as much hardware they are very important to Nintendo's infastructure.

But of course take my predictions with a grain of salt as the console hasn't even launched yet, but I bet the 3DS will be the same price if not cheaper then PSP2 like DS was cheaper then PSP. In the end I think this is the rematch of the century and Nintendo will come out victorious yet again!

For the record, I don't think the 3DS will be a failure by any means, I just think it'll be a step down as it thus far seems to limit its appeal somewhat by having mostly core games and having a higher cost. I still think it'll crush the PSP2 (unless Sony releases a PSP smartphone but then you couldn't really count it anyway since it would be a very different device serving a different purpose).

Yes there is Nintentendogs but that is merely a sequel to an already established franchise, which is appealing to current gamers (people who bought the first Nintendogs).

What Nintendo needs is a new hook and  new software that appeals to NEW audiences and ex gamers. I don't really see how the 3D alone would get people interested in games that wouldn't play anything else, but I suppose Nintendo could release some games that surprise people.. The Vitality Sensor for instance is a great example of appealing to new markets, though that is on the Wii and considering the lack of news about it lately it's not even certain that the thing will come out. Games like Nintendogs will sell very well, but like WSR, I don't think it'll move much hardware because it is a sequel to an already established franchise appealing to already existing consumers.

I guess what I'm saying is it will be a highly respected "gamers" handheld but will have more of a limited appeal than the DS, at least initially.

I think the 3DS will sell 100m easily.  I don't think the 3DS will match DS numbers overall (but I do expect better sales initially after launch) due to increased competition from the smartphone market.  The 3DS will sell itself not only due to being the DS' successor, but also the 3D capabilities and to a lesser degree backwards compatibility.

I know that this probably isn't representative of the entire global gaming population, but everyone I know who owns a PSP also owns at least 1 DS (usually 2 or 3), suggesting that even if the 3DS takes a major bite out of the PSP2's market, sales won't increase that dramatically.

I think it will be sold out for most of the first two years of availability. I also believe it will achieve greater success than the DS if the supply is there. I think that the tech (projected 3D) gives it a huge edge on the technological side, this will also give it a wider potential audience than the original DS.

The 3DS's high price point is most likely an action to maximise profit, though. We don't know Nintendo's production rates yet but most likely Nintendo raised the price intentionally to avoid severe shortages. Basically if there's a sales volume of 25 million handhelds at a price of 199$ and 20 million units at 250$ in the first fiscal year but Nintendo's maximum production doesn't exceed 20 million units / year it is a wise step to price the system at 250$ because to maximise profit.

Nintendo is definitely trying to expand the appeal of the DS line, though. 3DS also offers new functions to attract interest of distant consumers (movie playback, faster internet, 3D cameras, music, etc.)

They are also clearly trying to move upmarket with the 3DS. In higher market segments customers are willing to shell out more money which increases revenue and profit. And Nintendo definitely needs the developers community on their side because they can't push a 100 milion selling system on their own.

If everything works according to their plan I expect Nintendo to drop the 3DS price when the PSP2 launches in late 2011. But since they most likely won't follow a skimming-pricing strategy we can expect them to release a "3DS lite" in 2012 at 200-250$, effectively raising the price again.

While all of the internet hype has (understandably) been for stuff like Kid Icarus, Resident Evil, and Zelda, remember that we're also looking at previously winning bridge titles or expanded audience stuff. Nintendogs, Mario Kart, Pilotwings, Professor Layton

I also feel that Steel Diver is being undersestimated. Here we're looking at a simple, realistic action game of sorts. Steel Diver has an NES vibe to it that people are overlooking, imo.

It also depends on your view. You could view it as a retreat, but Nintendo lost still more ground with the "core" this generation even than GameCube, Wii drifted further away from having that core third party support. DS not as much, but we're talking about Wii since 3DS is really getting console-type stuff here, and you can really look at Nintendo getting aggressive. Aggressive into a red ocean, yes, but its not a "retreat" from the blue ocean either, as those titles are there, that functionality is there (especially with augmented reality)

I think it will be very hard to match the DS. Sony is likely to be a stronger competitor this time around and smartphones/tablets/ipods will all be eating into the potential customers of 3DS. From what I have seen so far, it also looks like it will have more trouble attracting the expanded audience. The expanded audience is unlikely to care about faster internet or better graphics but will care about things like the low battery life and high price.

To me the 3DS is suffering from 'SNES Syndrome'. The SNES, alongside N64 and GC, were merely better versions of the NES, they weren't the revolutionary products the Wii/DS were. That is what the 3DS seems like, an improved DS , but not a revolution. And glasses free 3D isn't a revolution. Merely evolution of 3D tech.

I wonder wether 3DS will break 100 million to be honest. Hopefully though I shall be proved wrong and it will outsell DS.

Nintendo lost the market with the N64 not because they went after the high powered system, but because they drove away developers.

They used an expensive medium and restricted how many games could go on the system. Nitnendo's drive was to have the dream team of developers that didn't put out a lot of games, but instead put out a limited number of great games. Sony said, "hey, you can develop whatever you want on our system and it'll only cost you like $10/game compared to Nintendo's $30/game". Once all the developers left it didn't matter what Nintendo did, red or blue ocean colored. Without software you can't sell hardware.