| unknown_soul89 said: Seems like alot of people are missing one key word, FISCAL |
Why? Fiscal is fiscal... for now just 2.4 from Q1 and Q2 will be out in the next days (or weeks).
SONY expects PS3 to BEAT its 15 Million Fiscal Year Projections!!! | |||
| Is SONY living in the sam... | 155 | 45.19% | |
| Yeah it'll happen for sure! | 187 | 54.52% | |
| Total: | 342 | ||
| unknown_soul89 said: Seems like alot of people are missing one key word, FISCAL |
Why? Fiscal is fiscal... for now just 2.4 from Q1 and Q2 will be out in the next days (or weeks).
ethomaz said:
Why? Fiscal is fiscal... for now just 2.4 from Q1 and Q2 will be out in the next days (or weeks). |
People seem to be thinking the end of the year as in December 31
Squilliam said:
You wrote a lot... I deleted it. Anyway boiling it down to this one single point, the whole 'am I reasonable' question anyone in your position asked. It is a philisophical question. The likely answer is of course that it is likely PSN connected PS3s phone home at certain intervals. So of course they would know what ratio of hardware people are buying because they need to pass this information on developers who need to know how many Move, Nunchuck and Dual Shocks there are and what ratio in order to stipulate an appropriate number to use for multiplayer or single player. Like for instance, developers may want to know how common dual Move controllers would be. |
That's an interestning idea - I know, because I work in retail, that they won't get the sales data from the retailers, but if they can capture this (not sure if they can, I guess I'd need to see if you agree to allow them to do this) then they might get an idea of what controllers you use and in what configurations. Packs are normally defined based on estimates of sales profile then adjusted based on observed demand, but of course if they could create profiles through captured info they would get a fair idea of controller configuration.
There would still be noise though, my kids all take controllers to each others houses, so I've had lots of different dualshocks connected and my son took our two Move wands to his friends for a party, but I guess if they did get this info they could try and weed out common devices vs temporary ones.
I'm not sure they really do get this level of info regarding what you do, and of course what if you don't use PSN or are offline? That would affect accuracy, too.
Nah... I still reckon getting a handle on true Move install base is going to be very tricky, although this could - if they do this - get closer than anything else.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
Reasonable said:
There would still be noise though, my kids all take controllers to each others houses, so I've had lots of different dualshocks connected and my son took our two Move wands to his friends for a party, but I guess if they did get this info they could try and weed out common devices vs temporary ones. I'm not sure they really do get this level of info regarding what you do, and of course what if you don't use PSN or are offline? That would affect accuracy, too. Nah... I still reckon getting a handle on true Move install base is going to be very tricky, although this could - if they do this - get closer than anything else. |
It's virtually impossible. At best you could come up with a fairly broad, ball park figure that really couldn't even be confirmed by sales of the first (if such a thing will actually be released) killer app for Move compels PS3 consumers to buy a controller(s) and a PSEye by making Move required to play. The userbase for the PS3 is already too broad and splintered for a game on the platform to appeal to the majority of current owners.
It would be a somewhat useful bit a data to know how many basic Move controllers have been sold, but even this says little about the overall userbase as a big chunk of that userbase has an extra controller if not more. But, it would still provide the basic data of rate of adoption as production numbers for the base controller are adjusted up or down.
Ping_ii said:
Didn't I tell you not to bother till you have a solid link? |
VGCHARTZ IS RIGHT ON WITH THERE SALES DATA.
heres your link.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117935&page=1&str=2004024507#
Move is another situation where you just can't prove if it is multiple people owning a controller or one person owning multiple controllers. So You can't prove how many own the product in there homes. SO you have not proof either.

bannedagain said:
VGCHARTZ IS RIGHT ON WITH THERE SALES DATA. Move is another situation where you just can't prove if it is multiple people owning a controller or one person owning multiple controllers. So You can't prove how many own the product in there homes. SO you have not proof either.
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As Kowenicki mentioned in the other thread 38 million could mean anything from 37.5-38.49 million. And the report is likely as of the end of last quarter, a week ago in the data. Seriously, some people just try way too hard. Wait for earnings reports before claiming any over or undertracking. And that comic is really freaky.
Reasonable said:
There would still be noise though, my kids all take controllers to each others houses, so I've had lots of different dualshocks connected and my son took our two Move wands to his friends for a party, but I guess if they did get this info they could try and weed out common devices vs temporary ones. I'm not sure they really do get this level of info regarding what you do, and of course what if you don't use PSN or are offline? That would affect accuracy, too. Nah... I still reckon getting a handle on true Move install base is going to be very tricky, although this could - if they do this - get closer than anything else. |
You bastard! You said you were a programmer! How dare you lie to me like that! Now I find out you work in retail, how can any be reasonable working in retail?!
The quantity of analytics available this generation are quite staggering. Developers like Lionhead for instance know that people playing the game for the most part didn't use more than half of the features inside the game. Anyway there probably wouldn't be a significant difference between the offline and online population and they can adjust their figures because of already known data like the number of DS3 and Sixaxis controllers sold thus far against the total reported as being synced to the PS3.
Sure there would be a little bit of controller sharing but as a whole compared to the entire userbase this would be insignificant. With a know number of Move controllers and PsEyes and Nav controllers shipped and a known number of reorders as well as analytics from PS3s phoning home to say they have Move controllers attached they would have a very good picture of how many Move controllers the average person has, how common the navigation controllers are and how many non Move attached PsEyes out there.
Tease.
Squilliam said:
You bastard! You said you were a programmer! How dare you lie to me like that! Now I find out you work in retail, how can any be reasonable working in retail?! The quantity of analytics available this generation are quite staggering. Developers like Lionhead for instance know that people playing the game for the most part didn't use more than half of the features inside the game. Anyway there probably wouldn't be a significant difference between the offline and online population and they can adjust their figures because of already known data like the number of DS3 and Sixaxis controllers sold thus far against the total reported as being synced to the PS3. Sure there would be a little bit of controller sharing but as a whole compared to the entire userbase this would be insignificant. With a know number of Move controllers and PsEyes and Nav controllers shipped and a known number of reorders as well as analytics from PS3s phoning home to say they have Move controllers attached they would have a very good picture of how many Move controllers the average person has, how common the navigation controllers are and how many non Move attached PsEyes out there.
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I am a programmer - or well I was. I tend to focus higher level now on what should be designed, deployed, etc. Retailers have programmers too you know!
I agree on the analytics from games. I'm just not sure what Sony do. I was thinking retail analytic data sharing, which actually isn't that great generally, but if they really can grab what controllers, etc. you hook up and play with then I guess they could work out who has exactly what.
I know Valve collect a ton of gameplay stuff, for example.
It would be interesting to know what Sony might actually be able to grab from your PS3 use. To be fair I'd be curious what MS and Nintendo grab too, if anything.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
well I for example already owned an EYE cuz of eyepet, and bought 2 Move controllers, but NO game for now :) waiting for the good ones!
Reasonable said:
I agree on the analytics from games. I'm just not sure what Sony do. I was thinking retail analytic data sharing, which actually isn't that great generally, but if they really can grab what controllers, etc. you hook up and play with then I guess they could work out who has exactly what. I know Valve collect a ton of gameplay stuff, for example. It would be interesting to know what Sony might actually be able to grab from your PS3 use. To be fair I'd be curious what MS and Nintendo grab too, if anything. |
To be honest, its probably anything and everything they think is relevant. In any case thats why they get you to agree to a 2nd EULA before you can go on PSN / Live.
Nintendo probably gathers a lot of gameplay statistics, I would assume things like what you play, how long you play for, how many people at once etc. Sony would be more than that and Microsoft would probably know whether or not your brushed your teeth during a gameplay session!
Tease.