The only reason why "Xbox 360 + PS3 > Wii" right now is because of supply issues. If Nintendo increases production again, they might well start selling more than their competitors combined, thus getting closer and closer to 50% market share and possibly beyond, depending on how long huge demand continues.

Heck, even now we're close to the point where 360 + Wii = PS3 in terms of weekly sales (just check the numbers in the front page). It's not fanboyism at all to think the Wii might well end up with > 50% market share.

@rolstoppable

Spin-Offs can't "save" anything (not that the PSP needs saving hardware wise)..you know that very well...

So please don't compare spin-oofs which have a margin of the budget & appeal that the"actual" games have

MGs4, FF13 & GTA IV are WAY MORe important than MGS - PO, FF7:CC & GTA VCS, LCS ever were

In order for the Wii to achieve greater than 50% market share this generation,there gonna need to sell well over 20 million units a year from now on. Thats no easy feat. The thing is the 360 and PS3 will also sell better with each progressive year as their prices go down and their game libraries grow. Thats not to say the Wii wont sell 100 million + units at the end.

Why can't I compare home consoles with portables? Pretty much every way to compare the Nintendo DS to the PSP is similar to the comparisons to the Nintendo Wii and the PS3/XBox 360:

• Processing Power: The Nintendo DS and Wii are argued to be a full generation behind their competition
• Price: The Nintendo DS and Wii sold at historically acceptable levels whereas their competition sold at a much higher price
• Third party support: The Nintendo DS and Wii started out with poor third party support.
• Development Costs: Nintendo DS and Wii games are dramatically less expensive to develop than their competitions games
• Media Format: The Nintendo DS and Wii favoured a conventional format while their competition supports a new movie format

Even games are nearly identical, being that the PSP had a ton of ports from another console as well as new exclusive Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy and Grand Theft Auto games.

Anyways, this is all unimportant to the core part of my last post ... MrStickball claimed that "No system has ever, ever, started out with a decent marketshare, and gone on to totally dominate the marketshare" which is obviously false being that 40% is a decent marketshare (in particular when you consider that it launched in Europe 6 months after the Nintendo DS) and it is falling towards (and will likely) hit the dominated 25% marketshare soon enough.

@rolstoppable

exactly, but ofcourse there is no guarantee they will do anything miraculous

Won't the Wii sell better with each progressive year as its price goes down and its game library grows?

$200 (or less) is the price people are typically willing to pay for a game console and the XBox 360 and PS3 are years away form selling at this price, and the high cost of game development and lower hardware sales will mean that the PS3 and XBox 360's libraries will be growing far slower than the Wii's library from now on.

 Sure the Wii's gonna sell betterwith each progressive year. But the total number of units to beat 50% also gets higher. this year its 18 million next year it will be well over 20 million then 25 million. Im talking a year. eventually, even if the Wii sells 30 million a year, they probably still wont beat 50%

Except (of course) that the industry does not grow by 50% each year ...

1 (mabye 2) million additional new consoles are sold every year based on typical growth in the industry, the other new console sales come from tapping into new markets. While Microsoft and Sony are fighting to get that 1 (mabye 2) million additional console sales from the organic growth of the core-gamer market Nintendo will try to convince the Millions of 'casual' Nintendo DS owners to buy a Wii ...

Brain Training, Nintendogs, and Animal Crossing allowed Nintendo to rapidly grow their marketshare in the handheld market because your girlfriend, mother and grand-mother now play videogamers; what happens if Wii Fit has the same effect?

True, but the Wii is already at 43% with a weak lineup of games and supply problems. I don't know what to think of the console, to be honest.  I don't want to mentally put it at PS2 levels for a couple reasons. One is I don't know how much farther this is going to go, so it could fall short. The 2nd thing is I've never seen old people playing a PS2, or any console for that matter, so it could end up ass dazzling anything and everything seen before on the console market.

I think maybe the problem a lot of us gamers get into is we're thinking of it in terms of older generations when the experience was always roughly the same.

I mean we're sitting here talking about exclusives when we've already seen the biggest exclusive for the 360 come out (Halo), when:

1) Nintendo holding back supply for the holidays,

2) with an already limited supply,

3) right in the middle of an incredible 360 game glut,

and it barely nudged out the Wii for top sales for 2 weeks.  

The thing is it didn't really impact on sales, it's like that whole span didn't even exist as far as Nintendo momentum was concerned.

I'm not touching Wii predictions with a 100 foot pole.