I agree with this. I definetely think the new XBOX will be unveiled before any other next gen console. The fact the 360 is selling strongly at the moment and is likely to go out ona  high would be very good for MS and bad for Sony. For MS to force the 8th generation with Sony effectively in third place would really be a coup for them and position them well for future success.

Ok, I have to say something else.

In a lot of ways, it makes sense to think that MS hopes that the 360 Kinect combo can be their Wii (GC Wiimote).  If it really takes off in 2010-2011, why would they release a new console?  Just because of some idea about how long a gen should last?  Keeping up with technology?

Again, look.  at.  the.  Wii.

There is no graphics breakthrough that we know about that makes the next gen worth it.  Over 70 million people proved that already this gen by buying the Wii.

Who is demanding this next gen?  Consoles are still pricey compared to previous gens (PS3 just now cost what the PS2 did at launch), the console profit margins are still slim (no pun intended) and game development still costly.

End of 2013 at the earliest for the next Xbox.  That gives 3 full unchallenged holiday seasons for Kinect.  Considering the investment, it'd be crazy to expect anything less.

Well it could be that a new console gets announced by 2012, if Kinect fails that is. So personally, i hope it does fail so we get a new system. :P

Don't forget about Pikmin 3!

On another thought though ...

In the last generation (roughly) 170 Million consoles were sold, in this generation 155 Million consoles have been sold to date; and it is likely that early in 2011 this generation will surpass the system sales of the previous generation. For the most part it is fair to say that by the end of 2011 the vast majority of "Core" gamers will have bought a system this generation, and in many/most cases they will have purchased multiple.

Realistically, Kinect and Move are just products from Sony and Microsoft to deal with the reality that (unless they tap into new gamer markets) soon hardware sales will hit a brick wall; as everyone owns all the systems they're going to buy and console sales are driven more by replacing existing hardware than buying a new system they don't own.

The Wii may demonstrate that processing power isn't that important anymore, but it also demonstrates that the excitement produced by a new product can re-energize a brand far more than any add-on ever could.

Think they're both good thoughts.  I'm just glad it's not my responsibility to decide.  It seems like were in a bit of a cross-roads with the next major 'it' thing to be 3D TV combined with motion controls.  So do you launch early with a costly system with a minimal install base (% of owners with 3D TV's) hoping to get a jump on the competition? Or should you wait for the costs to go down with a bigger install base and have the benefit of knowing and mimicing competitors innovations?

And how do you get 12 million loyal subscribers to follow you on the next system? Start offering both versions of the game in the same box? Or have a coupon to download the other version for when you eventually upgrade? Like I said, glad it's not my decision. 

That is the only way I play Mario Kart, and is the major (although far from the only) reason that Mario Kart: Wii is my favourite game of the series. I do feel bad for those that use the classic controller/GC controller, it's always funny to drop back and get a pow block, catch up to first place and time a pow such that when they have to stop turning to avoid the effect of the pow then they run off the road. Doesn't work against those using motion controls, who can steer and use the trick/avoid pow button at the same time.

Feels good man

No, just no. Even with the wheel attatchment there is no solid axis around which the wheel can turn, this greatly reduces the precision that one can steer with. All things being fair though, Mario cart does not require the amount of precision that GT and Forza do. Which brings us back to the point I made earlier, Motion control, as it exists right now, will NOT replace the standard controller for "hard core" games such as the two racing franchises, Gears of War, Halo, KillZone, or many other games like them.