By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Fumanchu on 03 October 2010
Edit Thread
HappySqurriel said:
Darth Tigris said:

Ok, I have to say something else.

In a lot of ways, it makes sense to think that MS hopes that the 360 Kinect combo can be their Wii (GC Wiimote).  If it really takes off in 2010-2011, why would they release a new console?  Just because of some idea about how long a gen should last?  Keeping up with technology?

Again, look.  at.  the.  Wii.

There is no graphics breakthrough that we know about that makes the next gen worth it.  Over 70 million people proved that already this gen by buying the Wii.

Who is demanding this next gen?  Consoles are still pricey compared to previous gens (PS3 just now cost what the PS2 did at launch), the console profit margins are still slim (no pun intended) and game development still costly.

End of 2013 at the earliest for the next Xbox.  That gives 3 full unchallenged holiday seasons for Kinect.  Considering the investment, it'd be crazy to expect anything less.

On another thought though ...

In the last generation (roughly) 170 Million consoles were sold, in this generation 155 Million consoles have been sold to date; and it is likely that early in 2011 this generation will surpass the system sales of the previous generation. For the most part it is fair to say that by the end of 2011 the vast majority of "Core" gamers will have bought a system this generation, and in many/most cases they will have purchased multiple.

Realistically, Kinect and Move are just products from Sony and Microsoft to deal with the reality that (unless they tap into new gamer markets) soon hardware sales will hit a brick wall; as everyone owns all the systems they're going to buy and console sales are driven more by replacing existing hardware than buying a new system they don't own.

 

The Wii may demonstrate that processing power isn't that important anymore, but it also demonstrates that the excitement produced by a new product can re-energize a brand far more than any add-on ever could.

Think they're both good thoughts.  I'm just glad it's not my responsibility to decide.  It seems like were in a bit of a cross-roads with the next major 'it' thing to be 3D TV combined with motion controls.  So do you launch early with a costly system with a minimal install base (% of owners with 3D TV's) hoping to get a jump on the competition? Or should you wait for the costs to go down with a bigger install base and have the benefit of knowing and mimicing competitors innovations?

And how do you get 12 million loyal subscribers to follow you on the next system? Start offering both versions of the game in the same box? Or have a coupon to download the other version for when you eventually upgrade? Like I said, glad it's not my decision.