question, what does GT3 and GT5 have in common?

I say....keep dreaming! Noway will it even achieve something remotely close to that ridiculous figure!

Can I answer that? :D

What will underestimating a franchise like Gran Turismo mean?

Well I won't sit here and make predictions because I just don't do that anymore aside from the Ten Week Countdown thread.  Nor will I come in here and not show respect to BHR who has quite the rep for these kinds of things.

All I will say is that Gran Turismo is a huge series that has shown the ability to have large opening weekends along with great legs.  But, 3 million first week is no easy task.  Would like to ask the question to others of how do you think Call of Duty: Black Ops will affect sales of this title?

I really don't know how it will sell, I hope very well, not only for the game itself, but because it's also a powerful driving force for the whole racing genre.

This said, I really hope Sony will make bundles for every market, not only for Japan, otherwise it would mean their marketing has become again as moronic as in the past.

I know it will sell well in others and japan. Might get shadowed in america.

We might have another " Uncharted 2 " on our hands.

People here should Remember Gran Turismo sells a LOT in Europe and it sells very well in Japan. Is there any doubt it will become the best-selling exclusive on the PS3 in a matter of months?

Which are the best-selling exclusives ?

1- Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3)  First MGS this gen- 2.5 year old game. It was bundled for several months.  @ around 5 million ww. Greatest Hit title.

2- Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (PS3) First GT of this gen, although not full-fledged numbered title (sort of like Halo ODST if you will) @ around 5 million ww -counting PSN sales (data from PD themselves)- Greatest Hit title.

3- Resistance: Fall of Man (PS3) First game of this new franchise that was one of the first show-pieces the PS3 had on release date. It was officially bundled in Europe for a good while. @around 3.75 millon ww. Greatest Hit title.

4-LittleBigPlanet (PS3) New franchise more focused on family/young gamers- @ around 3.7 million ww. Greatest Hit title.

5- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3) Young franchise but still Best overall game this generation according to critical acclaim, awards, etc (hint : it is). @ around 3.6 million ww.

6- MotorStorm (PS3) First game of this new franchise that was one of the first show-pieces the PS3 had early after debut. It was officially bundled until discontinued (the bundle and SKU) in mid 2008. @ around 3.55 million ww. Greatest Hit title.

7- Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (PS3) New franchise and arguably PS3's first killer exclusive. Released in late 2007.  Right now it sits @ around 3. 3 million ww. Greatest Hit title.

8- God of War III (PS3) First GOW of this gen, released in March this year- @ around 3 million ww.

9- Killzone 2 (PS3) First game of a franchise that had an unimpressive start in PS2. It also did unimpressive numbers, although still good enough to build upon it and its developing fanbase. @ 2.4 million ww. Also a Greatest Hit title.

10- Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction (PS3) The first game of the franchise also released in late 2007 @ around 2 million now.

There is something interesting if you look at that list, at least to me. Only 2 of those games are from Japanese developers, and only those 2 games have sold great in Japan proportional to their success in the West. And curiously those 2 games occupy the top 2 spots in the best-sellers list.

GT5 has a bunch of factors on its side:

1- Hype.

2- Bundles.

3- Holiday season.

4-  A good installed base.

Other interesting notes:

1- GOW3 is set to outsell MGS4 (in the West) without selling good at all in Japan. GOW3 outsold its previous games in the franchise that had debuted on a very much larger installed base.

2- MGS4 was bundled but still it debuted on a still lagging PS3 installed base with a $500 bundle. That didn't stop it from selling gangbusters.

3- Brand matters. It's evident on both games above, and GT5 Prologue.

I can't say for sure if GT5 will sell 10 million, but I think it's almost a given it will sell better than the current top 3 exclusive sellers. 7 million is not out of the question, and one has to expect the game will continue to have strong sales later next year and beyond when it achieves Greatest Hits status and the PS3 console drops below the $250 price point. So 7 million is not too farfetched now is it? It could easily become the first PS3 exclusive to crack 1 million sales in Japan alone, and it'll probably do considerably more than that if the bundles keep coming.

Uncharted 2 has quadrupled its first week in 10 months and will likely do 6 to 7 times it's first week lifetime. You don't think GT5 will at least triple it's first week in 24 months? Keep in mind, it will likely be bundled in every region and is seeing an official release in several territories that no previous GT game was ever officially released in such as South America, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. And GT4 was only bundled in PAL. If PES 2010 can sell 600k in Latin America, likely over 150k on PS3, and God of War 3 can sell around 100k how much do you think GT5 will sell in that region? The traditional Chinese version of GOW3 has sold over 180k, more than any GT ever sold in Asia and that doesn't even include the Korean version. :edit: On a small side note, it's kind of annoying that we don't seem to even be attempting to track SW in the small outlying regions. Source even made an article about PES 2010 Latin American sales and we still haven't seen adjustments.