To the underlined reason, wouldn't most owners of Halo 3 and Halo 3 ODST want to get Reach? These people know how awesome the franchise is and it's been 3 years since Halo 3. ODST doesn't even have it's own multiplayer, don't you think after 3 years most Halo 3 fans are tired of Halo 3 multiplayer?

I mean 8.1 million people bought Halo 3 in 2007, and Halo 3 is still the second most played game on XBL. Don't you think of these 8.1 million gamers who bought Halo 3 at full price that most of them want to switch to Halo: Reach? Also what about the 25 plus million new console owners that bought a 360 after Halo 3 was released. Don't you think some of these people missed out on Halo 3, and want to get into the new Halo while it's new? I'm sure the best rated shooter of the year (currently) is appealing to at least 1/4th the curent 360 base, and that already makes up the sales from Halo 3.

Either way, the purpose of this thread is to see who is right, Will Reach outsell Halo 3 or vice versa?

P.S. You said Halo: Reach has soo many pre-orders because of the hardcore fanbase. Does that mean that the Halo: Reach hardcore fanbase has grown? It seems to by your logic, and doesn't that imply that the games popularity amongst 360 owners has also grown? I don't know how you feel, but if more hardcore gamers are buying Halo Reach, then wouldn't more casual gamers buy the game too? If not do you really beleive the number of casual gamers interested in Reach will be so much smaller then the casual audience for Halo 3 that even the expanded hardcore audience will not make up the difference in sales?

To me it just seems soo muh more likely that Reach will outsell all other Halo's. The franchise is growing in popularity, and I have explained my reasons in my initial post. However your entitled to your own opinion as I am to mine.

About your pre-order argument.

I am thinking that the game is getting more pre orders then Halo 3 because the were less consoles at the time. So people getting Halo 3 would be getting a console also, so it is less likely that the people who are purchasing the consoles are going to make a pre order. deffo when they do not own the console yet.

You can look at many franchises. The first game on the console sells a good amount. Then the next game on the console tends to sell more in the first few months then falls behind and does not manage to beat the previous games in sales. This rule is just for the many though. Not all. Uncharted 2 being an exception to this rule

Halo 2 was also an exception. Also Gears 2 is likely to outsell Gears 1 in the long run. Well, you make interesting observations, but the way I figure it, more 360's then a previous Halo has ever sold on, more Halo's sold. Halo is a good franchise, I would bet most Halo 3 players would get Halo: Reach, and they would also reccomend the game to new console owners, or to the people who bought a 360 since Halo 3 and didn't get Halo 3.

Also over time Halo has become a growing franchise, just like CoD, I think Halo sales will go up. We will find out next week, probably next friday how Halo did week 1, but according to VGCharts, day 1 sales are likely the second largest for any single platform title, after Modern Warfare 2, and above Halo 3 by about half a million (they predict 4.25 week 1 sales).

Week one sales have been updated to the original post, now you can benefit from the thread.

Data updated to the week ending September 25th, but I think few are interested in this thread anymore. If this dies out I will not do one of these for Gran Turismo, Call of Duty, or Gears of War.

Data updated to October 2nd, if no one is interested, I'll just keep updating data for myself, and let the thread die out.

Guess I won't be doing one of these for Gran Turismo is people aren't interested a week after the game is released.

EDIT: Nah, after consideration, that was way too hardcore a post for this site. ¬_¬

What was way too hardcore a post for this site?

do you still stand by your halo reach: 14.5 million prediction?

im just curious.

Interesting post !

Keep it alive please.  :)

Bye.