Upcoming major titles for systems in Japan (2010)

Bruno Muñoz

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Bruno Muñoz on 01 September 2010

Here's my projection for the biggest titles of the list (over 200k)

5 million seller

18/09/10 [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.)

3 million seller

01/12/10 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom)

1 million seller

xx/xx/10 [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo)
xx/xx/10 [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns (Nintendo)
03/11/10 [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE)

500k to 999k

09/12/10 [NDS] Ni no Kuni: The Ebony Wizard (Level 5)

300k to 499k

07/10/10 [NDS] Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded (Square Enix)
xx/xx/10 [NDS] Golden Sun: Dark Dawn (Nintendo)
22/09/10 [PSP] Black Leopard: A New Tale of Yakuza (Sega)
14/10/10 [PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix)
28/10/10 [PSP] God Eater: Burst (Bandai Namco)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco)

200k to 299k

25/11/10 [NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco)
02/12/10 [NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson)
xx/12/10 [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami)
11/11/10 [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Wheel of Fate (Square Enix)
xx/xx/10 [WII] The Last Story (Nintendo)

jarrod

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jarrod on 01 September 2010

Bruno Muñoz said:

jarrod said:

Front Mission Evolved won't pass 100k. Vanquish and Naruto 2 might not either.

The rest seem like sure things, though I question listing MOVE as a major title. If that's the standard, I think Kinect will sell 100k plus in Japan too.

You are probably right, I smell flop for Front Mission Evolved, unfortunately for Castlevania: Lords of Shadows too.

Vanquish is a safe bet IMO and Naruto 2 50/50.

Regarding MOVE it is likely that at least one or two exclusive titles will do it well.

Well, the most likely imo would be the bundled Move games (Big3 Gun Shooting, Beat Sketch or... uh... Biohazard 5 AE, if it counts again). The Japan Studio game seems too odd/niche, and all the Euro made Wii ___ clones (ie: Sports Champions, Start the Party, etc) have far too ugly a character aesthetic for the Japanese, nevermind the audience who would even want those sorts of games would likely never even consider a PS3.

I agree Naruto 2 is more a possibility, but the IPs been declining, the first game didn't quite manage 100k by some trackers (only 85k by Famistu), and now there's also a 360 version that might eat some sales. Vanquish I can see going either way too, I think Bayonetta was much, much more appealing from a JP perspective and it only did around 200k lifetime and could be seen as a direct successor to DMC. Vanquish is like some weird halfway point between RE4 and PN03, and while I love it, I don't think most will...

jarrod

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jarrod on 01 September 2010

Bruno Muñoz said:

Here's my projection for the biggest titles of the list (over 200k)

Oh! Me, me! Lifetime sales (not just 2010).

6 million seller

18/09/10 [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.)

4 million seller

01/12/10 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom)

1 million seller

09/12/10 [NDS] Ni no Kuni: The Ebony Wizard (Level 5)
xx/xx/10 [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo)
xx/xx/10 [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns (Nintendo)

500k to 999k

14/10/10 [PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix)
03/11/10 [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE)

300k to 499k

07/10/10 [NDS] Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded (Square Enix)
02/12/10 [NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson)
22/09/10 [PSP] Black Leopard: A New Tale of Yakuza (Sega)
28/10/10 [PSP] God Eater: Burst (Bandai Namco)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco)

200k to 299k

28/10/10 [NDS] Zack & Ombra: The Phantom Theme Park (Konami)
25/11/10 [NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco)
xx/12/10 [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [NDS] Golden Sun: Dark Dawn (Nintendo)
11/11/10 [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Wheel of Fate (Square Enix)
xx/xx/10 [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity (Sega)
xx/xx/10 [WII] The Last Story (Nintendo)

...also, if the sequel to Magician's Quest: Mysterious Times or Inazuma Eleven Wii make this year, they'll be up there too (both likely 300-499k). The PSP MoHun clones (Lord of Arcana, God Eater Burst, PSP2i) may all do worse than i'm expecting too, since MHP3 might eat everyone's lunch. Sega's particularly screwed by launching PSP2i later than it even.

I tend to think Pokemon will do better, as it'll probably have 3DS hooks and sell to new system owners too. Similar to Crystal on GBA or Emerald on DS, but moreso since it's an actual new game and not an upgraded rerelease.

Boutros

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Boutros on 01 September 2010

jarrod said:

Bruno Muñoz said:

Here's my projection for the biggest titles of the list (over 200k)

Oh! Me, me! Lifetime sales (not just 2010).

6 million seller

18/09/10 [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.)

4 million seller

01/12/10 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom)

1 million seller

09/12/10 [NDS] Ni no Kuni: The Ebony Wizard (Level 5)
xx/xx/10 [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo)
xx/xx/10 [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns (Nintendo)

500k to 999k

14/10/10 [PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix)
03/11/10 [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE)

300k to 499k

07/10/10 [NDS] Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded (Square Enix)
02/12/10 [NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson)
22/09/10 [PSP] Black Leopard: A New Tale of Yakuza (Sega)
28/10/10 [PSP] God Eater: Burst (Bandai Namco)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco)

200k to 299k

28/10/10 [NDS] Zack & Ombra: The Phantom Theme Park (Konami)
25/11/10 [NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco)
xx/12/10 [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [NDS] Golden Sun: Dark Dawn (Nintendo)
11/11/10 [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Wheel of Fate (Square Enix)
xx/xx/10 [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity (Sega)
xx/xx/10 [WII] The Last Story (Nintendo)

...also, if the sequel to Magician's Quest: Mysterious Times or Inazuma Eleven Wii make this year, they'll be up there too (both likely 300-499k). The PSP MoHun clones (Lord of Arcana, God Eater Burst, PSP2i) may all do worse than i'm expecting too, since MHP3 might eat everyone's lunch. Sega's particularly screwed by launching PSP2i later than it even.

I tend to think Pokemon will do better, as it'll probably have 3DS hooks and sell to new system owners too. Similar to Crystal on GBA or Emerald on DS, but moreso since it's an actual new game and not an upgraded rerelease.

I would swap Gran Turismo 5 with Kirby.