I think 2013, definitely. No later than Q4 2013.

I can't say for sure what will push Sony to launch the PS4 at that time, but it will probably be for one or both of these reasons:

1- The competition (likely Nintendo) would have released a new system with really game-changing technology and begun to (dangerously) amass third-party support.

2- A new "revolutionary" tech would either be getting really popular (ie.: non-glasses 3D, just a guess) or Sony would have developed some  tech and they will see fit (once again) to use their console as trojan horse to push it into the market. Either way they would design their next console to exploit the advantages of this new tech as one of its main selling points.

My guess is that by late 2013 one or both of those conditions above will have already been set in motion, so the introduction of a new PlayStation will be inmminent.

According to Sony they said there more the likely going to be the last company to come out with a next gen console, so maybe 2013.

yep sony said that they expect nintendo or microsoft to start next gen i think it will be microsoft once again being the first out of the gate

MS won't be the first. They won't do it for fear of losing this gen. If they release another console, they might get a head-start on the next generation but they'll be giving the current gen up to Sony or Nintendo. 

Only after Nintendo releases the next gen console will they consider or, or if they start to fall too far behind in sales and realize its over.

The current consoles have so much technology in them that they will last much longer than previous gens. Once you've got a console capable of releasing updated firmware, game patches, easy wireless access and large HDDs, it'll outlast previous gens where none of this was possible and a whole new console was required for any type of major improvements. Thats not the case this gen, sorry.

No. 3 or more i think.

1st its not a ghost

2nd its not a box its a utube vid scaled down do you have some sort of ad blocker or something? cause you can click the box and hear the utube link

3rd i dont think MS will be first, they launch with sony i think MS fears going early in fear of not having the same power as sony

Those are just rumors...I don't think both ps4 and newxbox, will come out in 2 years. The main problem is the game development cost, it is already considered too-high by many with current consoles, another generation jump would be difficult to sustain by many developers. Time will probably prome me wrong but atm I think a 2013-2014 release is more realistic.

2012 -> 2013 Is about right for both the Xbox 360 and PS3 to be replaced by a next generation console. They always release new consoles before the last generation is "done" because otherwise they would risk leaving a gap in the market where the old consoles die and the new console hasn't quite ramped up yet.

The significant difference is that in this case they will probably launch at a $299 price floor but they will keep their old consoles in the market at $199 or less depending on the model and the prices of the respective competition and new consoles.

The thing which is almost certain is that Microsoft will go for some fancy pants GPU from either Nvidia or ATI and Sony will probably be true to form and keep more of the balance of their transistor budget focused towards the CPU.

In terms of process technology this is Intels pipeline:

• 2011 22nm ramp.
• 2012 new CPU
• 2013 11nm?? (might be late) ramp
• 2014 new CPU

So considering consoles are 12-24 months behind Intel process technology, the consoles will probably release on 22,28,32 nm processes depending on the fab of choice and other design considerations such as the time of release.I would expect that if the Xbox next/PS4 debuts in 2012 they will be on the 28nm process and they will shrink the chips in the following year to 22nm.

This will probably be the last generation released on a traditional silicon production format. However considering the reduction in die size and the increase in watt / area, its quite possible that both Sony and Microsoft will go for a system on a chip design approach if they target a TDP of 150W or less.

ps4 around 2013-2014