2012 -> 2013 Is about right for both the Xbox 360 and PS3 to be replaced by a next generation console. They always release new consoles before the last generation is "done" because otherwise they would risk leaving a gap in the market where the old consoles die and the new console hasn't quite ramped up yet.
The significant difference is that in this case they will probably launch at a $299 price floor but they will keep their old consoles in the market at $199 or less depending on the model and the prices of the respective competition and new consoles.
The thing which is almost certain is that Microsoft will go for some fancy pants GPU from either Nvidia or ATI and Sony will probably be true to form and keep more of the balance of their transistor budget focused towards the CPU.
In terms of process technology this is Intels pipeline:
- 2011 22nm ramp.
- 2012 new CPU
- 2013 11nm?? (might be late) ramp
- 2014 new CPU
So considering consoles are 12-24 months behind Intel process technology, the consoles will probably release on 22,28,32 nm processes depending on the fab of choice and other design considerations such as the time of release.I would expect that if the Xbox next/PS4 debuts in 2012 they will be on the 28nm process and they will shrink the chips in the following year to 22nm.
This will probably be the last generation released on a traditional silicon production format. However considering the reduction in die size and the increase in watt / area, its quite possible that both Sony and Microsoft will go for a system on a chip design approach if they target a TDP of 150W or less.
Tease.
