The most impressive thing to me at this point is the fact that 1 year after the slim and pricecut the PS3 is still up 66% YoY. 

Sadly, for Sony, unless Kinect is met with overwhelming negative feedback i dont see what compelling offers the PS3 can offer this holiday WW to compete with the buzz that Kinect will surely cause.

Since Sony has already priced th enew Move model, a $50 price cut seems out of the question, which is pretty much all i could see taking th ePS3 safely to 1st place this holiday. Now its more of a toss up but im going to give the nod to the 360 just based on pre Kinect/Move guesstimation.

66%?

Sorry, dont mean YoYTD I mean weekly YoY.

Maybe because a YoY comparison means to the last week before Slim launched in 2009 when the PS3 sold like 90K.

I don't think it's the titles so much as the brand perception and genre association.  MS invested, particularly early on, in both true exclusives such as Blue Dragon as well as purchasing or otherwise negotiating timed exclusives that were specific for Japan, but I just felt they never overcame the brand/genre perception of being FPS/Western titles orientated and that they tried to use too western a style of marketing early on.

When the timed exclusives came to and end and the titles then hit PS3 with more content I think that hurt the 360 a lot in Japan, too.  In hindsight I think the timed exclusives approach was a mistake for MS, they should have either made sure they were true exclusives or only invested in real exclusives vs anything timed.

On paper the 360 has more than enough content to sell in the region I'd say - so I guess I disagree it doesn't - but it doesn't have the right perception in the market and MS don't seem able to attain it.  Now, it's irrelivent I think.  The boosts that saw the 360 easily beat the Xbox total seem over now, even the slight spike from the clearance sale and new model seems to be slipping away and never took the 360 near the Wii and PS3 in the region.

Unless Kinect suddenly becomes huge in Japan, then I think the 360 has achieved what it can there and will only see very small average weekly sales around the 3 to 5 k mark.

If you looked at the numbers, which i did......

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=113196&page=1#

In July of last year, the WW PS3 sales were 98k, the difference from this week is not due to the decline of last years weekly sales preslim its due to the larger volume of this year. Had we seen sales dip this week in 2009 id agree with you, but the % difference YoY is not due to lower volume in regards to the preslim weeks its due to the growth  THIS YEAR of sustained PS3 sales.

As you see the PS3 was at 98k July 10th, well before the slim and cut....the PS3 is simply just tracking very well a year after.

Okay okay.

Was you the guy who made those lenghty analysis of generation sales a year ago or so, in particular when sales of a console peak?

No way. I wouldnt even have posted what i did or been aware if it werent for Seece's helpful table in his signature and the poster who posts the YoY software and hardware, haha.

But as the news posting alludes. Its going to slightly dip YoYTD and a huge negative YoY weekly in september because of what you mentioned, the slim being released. But the last 8 months being up 45% YoY should ease th eblow, im very anxious to compare weekly YoY numbers from October on to REALLY see how well the PS3 Slim is holding up YoY.

I think its pretty much for sure that 360 is gonna outsell the PS3 over the holidays.  The big question is can the 360 outsell the Wii in NA this holiday?  If Kinect takes off which its looking like it very well could then I think theres a pretty good chance of 360 being number one in NA this holiday.  

Something interesting to note about the YOY comparison. Throughout the summer slump PS3 has been averaging about 140k per week. Last year the 360 was averaging in the low 100ks to 110k throughout the summer. When it got the SKU shift at the end of August it lifted average weekly sales in September to about what the PS3 has been doing for the past couple months. With the exact same thing happening to the PS3 this year and with Move on the horizon that means that PS3 will likely continue to track noticeably ahead of 360's 2009 numbers, probably averaging around 160k-180k in September.