Here are my own self-debunked theories:
1. Language Barrier
2. Developer Prowess
3. Publisher Power
Here is how I debunked them:
1. If language is such a barrier than how come Nintendo's main and domestic competitor, Sony, has always been associated with high quality third party games? Language can't be and is most certainly not the barrier.
2. Outside of Blizzard, BioWare, and Rockstar games, very few 3rd party developers have their own financial resources to be picky in terms of what consoles their games will be played on. With Xbox Live and PSN, indie developers are emerging and becoming a threat, albeit a small one, to all industry established developers. Henceforth, 3rd party developers have no sane reason to be picky or fanboys.
3. The power of publishers is routinely and vastly overestimated. We all know who holds the ace cards in the Activision Blizzard partnership. Activision before Blizzard had the Tony Hawk series, which was popular but has since faded into obscurity. With Blizzard, Activision got the World of Warcraft and each Diablo and Starcraft game. If Blizzard had not signed on, Activision would have gone the way of Midway games, where they were a mediocre publisher in the 1990s pumping out cartoon and movie based video games before going belly up before the 2010s.
Same goes for BioWare and EA. BioWare right now has more and better game franchises than Blizzard had in 1999.
As for the real answer to why 3rd party developers do not partner with Nintendo as much as they do the HD systems, I think there are couple of important factors. First, Nintendo had sterling 3rd party support in the SNES era, but went almost exclusively 1st and 2nd party in the N64 and Gamecube era. Developers still remember Nintendo for how Nintendo treated them during the N64 and Gamecube era, which has predisposed them to work with Microsoft and Sony.
Second, Sony from the PS1 engaged and made their success off of 3rd party developers. As a result, this history has them favorably disposed to work with Sony.
Third, Nintendo's dependence on recycling their franchise games for each generation and being able to sell over 5 million on Mario, Zelda and Metroid games has given Nintendo an extreme self confidence to the point where it is Nintendo vs. the world, to the outside observer. Who needs MW 3 if you have Super Mario Galaxy 3, which will cost less and sell comparable numbers?
Fourth, Microsoft itself is not hostile to 3rd parties. Before the Xbox, Microsoft was heavily invovled in PC gaming, thus they were able to create a reputation hospitable for 3rd party developers to work with once they made the console transition. Microsoft's consoles in many regards are PC games brought to your television.
Finally, I think we are all underestimating how much the majority of 3rd party developers originating in the West has to do with their predisposition to work with Microsoft and Sony. Sony may be Japanese based, but Sony banked the success of the PS1 on quality 3rd party support and got it. All the intanigbles of shared history, common language, gameplay vs. graphics and on are compatible with both Microsoft and Sony, just not Nintendo.At least three of the intangibles need to be present. Nintendo may speak the language but their foucs on gameplay first, graphics second and a lack of shared history is not a benefit to bring to the bargaining table with 3rd party developers.