Wii worst year for sales already? really???

superchunk

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superchunk on 20 August 2010

RolStoppable said:

superchunk said:

Yep, I'd have to generally agree with you on all of this.

Interesting thing is, I've said for years 2012 will user in the next gen, but, with the PS360 getting the odd support for 'losing' systems and at least the PS3 not really hitting the sub $200 price yet, do you think its possible the Wii will get replaced before they do and that they will let it get a significant lead on the next gen? Its not too far out there considering PS2 launched first when PS1 was still healthy.

Up until E3 2010 I thought that Nintendo definitely wouldn't launch their next home console first, but the Wii's lackluster third party support and the 3DS launching before a PSP successor drastically increased the probability that Nintendo will move first into the next generation. The only way for Nintendo to get significant third party support for their home console seems to be by forcing third parties to by not leaving them any other choice.

So yes, it's definitely possible, even more likely than not.

Yeah, that's pretty much my line of thinking as well. I still think PS360 will also launch in 2012 (2013 if no price reductions this year), just I originally thought Nintendo would be last not first.

Hopefully, they'll follow 3DS footsteps with very strong 3rd party launch support.

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GuyDuke on 20 August 2010

Well, some people need to be comforted here that their little console won't be crushed by the Wii... Wii has its peak year in 2008 already, it sold so many units it's normal it slowed down, but on the other hand, Nintendo has a lot of thing they can do to sustain their sales, with releasing a new model, another pricecut, reduction of price of the games, bundles... while Sony and MS did use everything they could use to maintain their sales...

We'll see in the Holidays. With Wii Party, I think the Wii has a big big big chance of being the winner once again.

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jarrod on 23 August 2010

superchunk said:

RolStoppable said:

superchunk said:

Yep, I'd have to generally agree with you on all of this.

Interesting thing is, I've said for years 2012 will user in the next gen, but, with the PS360 getting the odd support for 'losing' systems and at least the PS3 not really hitting the sub $200 price yet, do you think its possible the Wii will get replaced before they do and that they will let it get a significant lead on the next gen? Its not too far out there considering PS2 launched first when PS1 was still healthy.

Up until E3 2010 I thought that Nintendo definitely wouldn't launch their next home console first, but the Wii's lackluster third party support and the 3DS launching before a PSP successor drastically increased the probability that Nintendo will move first into the next generation. The only way for Nintendo to get significant third party support for their home console seems to be by forcing third parties to by not leaving them any other choice.

So yes, it's definitely possible, even more likely than not.

Yeah, that's pretty much my line of thinking as well. I still think PS360 will also launch in 2012 (2013 if no price reductions this year), just I originally thought Nintendo would be last not first.

Hopefully, they'll follow 3DS footsteps with very strong 3rd party launch support.

DS was pretty much prologue for Wii, in terms of how Nintendo handled the platforms. I expect 3DS and Wii2 to have a similar shared ideology, and chiefly target the core at first (3DS already is, Wii2 will follow). Then Nintendo can keep casuals and kids happy with their current machines and slowly transition them later on in their year 2/3 growth phase, which is when Sony/MS finally come to market. This is chiefly why I expect Wii2 just a year after 3DS, it's definitely going to be first to launch imo.

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Zlejedi on 23 August 2010

superchunk said:

RolStoppable said:

No, the DS wasn't riding on the Gameboy line's success. The DS was destined to come in second after the PSP. The PSP was riding on the PlayStation brand's success. Take a look at the first year's third party lineup of both, the DS and PSP, if you don't believe me.

How can you say that third parties knew that core gamers would stay with PS360? Third parties also knew that the PS3 would come in first this generation.

You set the qualifier for the Wii getting the big third party support at 60 % market share. But why? You just made that up to justify their actions. Even at a 50:50 split between Wii and HD consoles, the Wii still has the advantage of two to four times lower development costs for AAA games.

Idk, I didn't follow these lineups when DS/PSP launched, but with the handheld legacy of Nintendo and the Pokemon lineup alone and the typical demographic of handheld owners, I wouldn't have expected any different than DS leading the league.

A lot of my Wii/PS360 stuff is clearly my opinion, but I think its very logical when you look at the general dynamics of each market. You can't deny the clear immediate love by the core gaming community for the PS360 HD content. Wii, even when it was obvious it was outselling the combined totals of PS360, was heckled by this community.

The first two years of higher end core IPs were already destined for PS360 before 2006. Once those were out and the next wave of titles were about to be made, devs had a choice. Go for the clear leading console by then and not focus on cutting edge HD content or assume those that would primarily buy these specific titles would continue to support PS360 more than Wii. They took the latter as evidenced by where every single one of these IPs went.

On top of that they could continue to utilize the tools they have already developed and they figured with that continued push of HD content, the combined market share of PS360 would remain equivalent to Wii's.

My 60% line is because this is the point I believe any console would need to get to in order to easily win a far greater share of 3rd party push for their best IPs. I think this is probably demonstrated by the DS/PSP. I haven't looked, but I bet if you look at 3rd party support, DS started to clean house once it passed the 60% mark. Just an assumption, but it may be worth trying to determine if true.

I think you are forgetting one extremly important thing. Developers are also gamers and i doubt many people become game programmers without being enthusiastic gamer first so it's natural that when X360/PS3 came and equaled high end pc computers in first months they become enthusiastic about those new machines. It's also no suprising that when Wii came out those devs were much less excited about machine which have not that much more power than xbox and ps2.

If you look at who makes 3rd party Wii games - it's either small developers too poor to make hd game or huge companies which are all about making cash with games coming out like toys in chinese factory from assembly lines no suprise Ubisoft and Activision lead the way here. The only place where this looks slightly diffrent is Japan and especially Capcom who is probably only big company to put some effort and enthusiasm into Wii (but even then it's nowhere near levels of hd support).

It's also perfectly visible if you look at metacritic where the real effort and enthusiast goes.

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GianCarmen on 23 August 2010

When you have sold over 70 million consoles in 4 years eventually sales will come down. There is not one thing you can do about that. The wii is nintendo's best selling home console by far and as far as i am concerned if it stopped selling today I would not care because its a huge success in my mind. What they have been able to do with the Wii and DS has been amazing. I still can not understand all this doom and gloom for a system that has sold over 70 millon consoles. It will never end. Its the same crap all the time.