Well for starters, I'll say I'm a Sony fanboy. In a sense anyway. I'm not a fanboy, I will purchase what I believe is best, and at first I owned a 360, but decided after a while I'd switch my focus and bought a second hand PS3. After being content with the service provided there, I sold my 360 as I did not want to pay for live. 

However. If a 720 launched first. With PS4 a year or possibly further away, I'd buy a 720 immediately.  Depending how the system treated me I'd buy a PS3 second hand, later down the road. I'm not one looking to do any manufacturer any favours, I'm not cheap but I'm not looking to waste money at the same time. 

So as a result of the PS3s launch, after being a big PS2 fan, I ended up still owning a PS3 - but a second hand system a year and a half down the road. I think this has been a large factor in why the PS3 is in the position it's in. Admittedly the 360s launch was also earlier than the Wiis, so why isn't it doing better than the Wii? relatively simple, the Wii hit an untapped market. Obviously aspects like price will have a factor, if it launches later down the road but at a cheaper price, that may favour Sony differently than my predictions, but I think the chances of this are slim. 

So do you think Sony will lose further market share in the current generation, next generation by launching last?

Thanks. 

Well it won't suffer if they have ideas to take off competition  that released eariler. And i hoope fanboys don't attack me. I say this as a good thing so the can improve their product. Lots of companies do this.

You can blame Blu-ray for the late launch of PS3.

Since PS4 will most likely be Blu-ray compatible, it will most likely be launched alongside the next xbox.

Of course it will.

Nintendo with the 3DS and Wii 2 will be encroaching on Sony's and Microsoft's turf with a higher number of 3rd party devs and "core" games than they had for the Wii or Gamecube. Nintendo pretty much has the Blue Ocean market locked down with a majority both the Kinect and Move will not take from Nintendo before the start of the next generation come holiday season 2012 or holiday season 2013 at the latest.

Microsoft launching the 720 will further solidify their US customer base.

Sony launching last will have to compete for the "core" leftovers in the Americas market, mainly Sony fans who grew up on Sony and can never picture playing a console that does not have a Sony label on it. As for the emerging markets such as Brazil and the like, Sony has been and will do the strongest with the PS4.

I expect more parity in the next generation. Then again, if Nintendo gets serious about retaking those core gamers like me who grew up on Nintendo and SNES in the 1990s, then we may see a definite loser and a possible exit from one of the big three.

I wouldn't count on any of the big 3 leaving.

I do however, expect Nintendo to make a bigger push in the console market due to Apple and other smart phones encroaching on Nintendo's handheld gaming monopoly. The more Nintendo gets threatened on the handheld front, the stronger they will push their consoles to the "core."

If I was a Nintendo hater, I would be very afraid for the next generation. Nintendo is looking to take numbers, go to houses, and chop heads off. We will know how serious they are about the "core" and getting 3rd party developers come Spring 2011 when the 3DS launches.

This analysis assumes all 3 pursue the Blue Ocean market AKA casual gaming. Henceforth, the winners and losers will be those who launch early with a business plan to expand their "core" gaming market.

They said they'll launch last though, most likely.

Ok, what other things a new console can do that a PS3 cant do now? I look at it from the other way around. The PS3 will be the cheaper and with huge games library and can do whatever other new consoles can do. I dont see any new technology which can make the new cosnole for Wii or X360 different than the PS3.

In the end, the PS3 can do everything :)

1. If xbox 720 ever comes out it'll probably be just a little gray box  attached to kinect like camera interface receiving signal from microsoft game streaming servers. Looking at e3 and gamescon it's pretty obvious MS is giving up on hardcore gamers.

2. PS3 was mostly hurt by initial price which made cheaper x360 with "free" torrent games much more interesting choic for many.

But not a whole year. They can't depend on the brand name again after the PS3.

You are forgetting a very basic human want: Status symbols.

Back when the PS1 and Sega Saturn were first released, I had friends in my neighborhood who bought them because they were more expensive giving them bragging rights, eventhough my friends and I thought they were complete tools and still are to this day.

In many places everywhere, I would bet many of your many of your most vocal Sony supporters are those who buy Sony as a status symbol.

In a fool's mind, $600 compared to $200 with a few more exclusives means better and something they can say "I have this and you don't nah nah nah nah!"

I don't think Sony wanted last place again, though.