Of course it will.
Nintendo with the 3DS and Wii 2 will be encroaching on Sony's and Microsoft's turf with a higher number of 3rd party devs and "core" games than they had for the Wii or Gamecube. Nintendo pretty much has the Blue Ocean market locked down with a majority both the Kinect and Move will not take from Nintendo before the start of the next generation come holiday season 2012 or holiday season 2013 at the latest.
Microsoft launching the 720 will further solidify their US customer base.
Sony launching last will have to compete for the "core" leftovers in the Americas market, mainly Sony fans who grew up on Sony and can never picture playing a console that does not have a Sony label on it. As for the emerging markets such as Brazil and the like, Sony has been and will do the strongest with the PS4.
I expect more parity in the next generation. Then again, if Nintendo gets serious about retaking those core gamers like me who grew up on Nintendo and SNES in the 1990s, then we may see a definite loser and a possible exit from one of the big three.
I wouldn't count on any of the big 3 leaving.
I do however, expect Nintendo to make a bigger push in the console market due to Apple and other smart phones encroaching on Nintendo's handheld gaming monopoly. The more Nintendo gets threatened on the handheld front, the stronger they will push their consoles to the "core."
If I was a Nintendo hater, I would be very afraid for the next generation. Nintendo is looking to take numbers, go to houses, and chop heads off. We will know how serious they are about the "core" and getting 3rd party developers come Spring 2011 when the 3DS launches.
This analysis assumes all 3 pursue the Blue Ocean market AKA casual gaming. Henceforth, the winners and losers will be those who launch early with a business plan to expand their "core" gaming market.
