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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 19 - Game Thread

Nikells said:
Vetteman94 said:

Explain the risk?   Cause I dont see it

The risk is three-fold if we lynch Hatmoza and he's telling the truth.

1) We lose the chance to recruit a powerful ally (Kratos.)
2) We lynch a townie for the mafia.
3) We waste a lynch.

The bolded is a risk for every lynch, so that doesnt really apply here. 

As for your first one, thats if he is telling the truth, and while a vigilante can be useful they can still be extremely dangerous for the town as well.  Since at night they are still just randomly picking targets. 



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SciFiBoy2.0 said:

again, its incredibly obvious that Zeus is in the game and was targetted by the Mafia last night, why people dont want to believe this when it basically says it in the Day Start narration is beyond me, perhaps they are mafia and hope that this makes the doctor/protector ignore the possibility of there being a Zeus, so doesnt try and protect him?

Hatmoza im not sure about, his role-claim sounds plausable, but im not convinced of his alignment..


Exactly. Zeus is a way too important character to miss in the game, saying that he doesn't play is like God of War without Kratos.

@Dtewi:

Why shouldn't he reveal that Zeus was attacked? Revealing the role =/= revealing who has the role. In fact, 3ever even gave away another role when talking about Zeus' attack, the Sisters of Fate.

As long nobody roleclaims Zeus, it has no influence on the game. And even if somebody roleclaims him, there's no way to proove that. Even if somebody doubts his roleclaim and claims the role for himself, how could we know which of them lies? Now if we know which alignments the roles have, that would be a completely different question...



updated: 14.01.2012

playing right now: Xenoblade Chronicles

Hype-o-meter, from least to most hyped:  the Last Story, Twisted Metal, Mass Effect 3, Final Fantasy XIII-2, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Playstation ViTA

bet with Mordred11 that Rage will look better on Xbox 360.

Silver-Tiger said:
SciFiBoy2.0 said:

again, its incredibly obvious that Zeus is in the game and was targetted by the Mafia last night, why people dont want to believe this when it basically says it in the Day Start narration is beyond me, perhaps they are mafia and hope that this makes the doctor/protector ignore the possibility of there being a Zeus, so doesnt try and protect him?

Hatmoza im not sure about, his role-claim sounds plausable, but im not convinced of his alignment..


Exactly. Zeus is a way too important character to miss in the game, saying that he doesn't play is like God of War without Kratos.

One could say the same thing about Shao Khan from Mortal Kombat



Vetteman94 said:
The bolded is a risk for every lynch, so that doesnt really apply here. 

As for your first one, thats if he is telling the truth, and while a vigilante can be useful they can still be extremely dangerous for the town as well.  Since at night they are still just randomly picking targets. 

Ok: but I think it's more of a risk to lynch him than anyone else since he's revealed so much already.

So far the only valid reason to lynch Hatmoza is the elaborate theory that he's a mafia serial killer recruiter who thought it would be a great idea to announce his role to the town immediately and hope he didn't get investigated by the cop.

Also: if Hatmoza is telling the truth and we lynch him we're theoretically losing two townies instead of one.



Hephaestos said:
noname2200 said:

 

Hephaestos said:

one thing that doesn't fit though.... Silver and I believe appolo was killed by patapon... but the story says he's then with zeus at the top of olympus.... odd odd... would make the sibling idea credible... but that would make it that we could have had 5 kills night one...

Patapon was the Daytime Vigilante.  And what's this about Silver getting killed?

difference between daytime and nightime? does his kill appear in the day?

who said silver got killed? please read again...

The Daytime Vigilante kills during the day, with his identity and action openly exposed when it happens.  The game where Words of Wisdom moderated is a good example of how that works.

Regarding Silver: "Silver and I believe appolo was killed by patapon" is a horribly disjointed sentence, especially if you're trying to connect Silver to the clause before the ellipses.  I don't want to go all Grammar Police on you, but what you wrote apparently doesn't mean what you meant, since what you wrote means "Silver and Appolo got killed by patapon." 

So, what did you mean?

Nikells said:

It seems incredibly unlikely to me.
If Hatmoza was just making this all up he'd have to:

1) Bet on Kratos being the serial killer.
2) Bet on nobody calling out his name-claim.
3) Bet on not being investigated by the cop or tracker at all for as long as he lives.

And for what? All Hatmoza gets from his early role-claim is lots of attention. Stefl was a very different case as he gained a lot of power during the day with his investigations.

1) Again, that was a logical assumption to make: hatmoza even mocked Khuutra for briefly challenging that premise.

2) Who said he isn't Athena?  But then again, who's to say where Athena is aligned?  We've heard rumblings already that Athena's not a goody two-shoes in the God Of War series.  We've also had it hinted that she wasn't a friend of Zeus, either.

3) That is the only risk he would take, and for what it's worth I think hatmoza's sufficiently high-profile that he would probably be investigated at some point anyways.  And of course we can all agree that Khuutra (Mafia) was also likely to be investigated early on; deflecting the inevitable investigation from a teammate would be a viable strategy.  Moreover, he's certainly doing quite a bit to try and discredit anyone who challenges his claims: perhaps he would figure that he can stave off an investigation by being obviously pro-town: the cop(s) certainly have enough folks to look into as it is.

No, if hatmoza's anti-town there's a rational motive behind his actions.

Nikells said:


Here's the bottom line:
Hatmoza's cards are flat out on the table now: if he's lying we'll be sure to catch him out soon.

How do you figure, especially now that a cop has died?  How is his capture inevitable, especially if we accept his statements without reserve?

Nikells said:


Right now there is nothing to prove that he is not telling the truth.

There's no smoking gun, but there's certainly cause for concern. 

1) He was quick to get defensive when challenged,

2) He's taken to accusing anyone who suspects him,

3) After his initial post he's made little effort to convince Kratos to expose himself (do you realize you've done just as much, if not more, for that cause than he has?),

4) He (a long-time Mafia veteran) committed the faux pas of posting long after night had fallen simply to reiterate that 'he will find Kratos' (why does he feel the need to reiterate this? The only reason I can see is to bolster his own credibility),

5) His story this morning requires us to believe that Kantor trusted him enough to NOT use his lie detecting ability on hatmoza's claimed role,

6) Kantor gained information to narrow Kratos to two people AND tell this information to Hatmoza, all in one night (i.e. Kantor can take two separate night actions in one night),

7) He's a psychiatrist who is told that his possible patient will become a vigilante: judging from the last game with a psychiatrist, the psychiatrist is not explicitly told what will happen when he finds his target,

8) He FoS'd Khuutra (Mafia), despite Khuutra doing the opposite of what he listed as being suspicious behavior.

 

I'm eager to hear his answer to your questions.



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Alright, I'll have to be gone for a few hours now.  But I'd like to hear some thoughts from our quieter members, in particular Squilliam.



Vetteman94 said:
Silver-Tiger said:
SciFiBoy2.0 said:

again, its incredibly obvious that Zeus is in the game and was targetted by the Mafia last night, why people dont want to believe this when it basically says it in the Day Start narration is beyond me, perhaps they are mafia and hope that this makes the doctor/protector ignore the possibility of there being a Zeus, so doesnt try and protect him?

Hatmoza im not sure about, his role-claim sounds plausable, but im not convinced of his alignment..


Exactly. Zeus is a way too important character to miss in the game, saying that he doesn't play is like God of War without Kratos.

One could say the same thing about Shao Khan from Mortal Kombat


You got a point there. But Shao Khan was never directly involved in the game. He just observed it. Zeus, on the other hand, was being targeted by Khuutra, and would have been killed if the Sisters of Fate wouldn't have prevented it.



updated: 14.01.2012

playing right now: Xenoblade Chronicles

Hype-o-meter, from least to most hyped:  the Last Story, Twisted Metal, Mass Effect 3, Final Fantasy XIII-2, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Playstation ViTA

bet with Mordred11 that Rage will look better on Xbox 360.

noname2200 said:
Hephaestos said:
noname2200 said:

 

Hephaestos said:

one thing that doesn't fit though.... Silver and I believe appolo was killed by patapon... but the story says he's then with zeus at the top of olympus.... odd odd... would make the sibling idea credible... but that would make it that we could have had 5 kills night one...

Patapon was the Daytime Vigilante.  And what's this about Silver getting killed?

difference between daytime and nightime? does his kill appear in the day?

who said silver got killed? please read again...

The Daytime Vigilante kills during the day, with his identity and action openly exposed when it happens.  The game where Words of Wisdom moderated is a good example of how that works.

Regarding Silver: "Silver and I believe appolo was killed by patapon" is a horribly disjointed sentence, especially if you're trying to connect Silver to the clause before the ellipses.  I don't want to go all Grammar Police on you, but what you wrote apparently doesn't mean what you meant, since what you wrote means "Silver and Appolo got killed by patapon." 

So, what did you mean?

Nikells said:

It seems incredibly unlikely to me.
If Hatmoza was just making this all up he'd have to:

1) Bet on Kratos being the serial killer.
2) Bet on nobody calling out his name-claim.
3) Bet on not being investigated by the cop or tracker at all for as long as he lives.

And for what? All Hatmoza gets from his early role-claim is lots of attention. Stefl was a very different case as he gained a lot of power during the day with his investigations.

1) Again, that was a logical assumption to make: hatmoza even mocked Khuutra for briefly challenging that premise.

2) Who said he isn't Athena?  But then again, who's to say where Athena is aligned?  We've heard rumblings already that Athena's not a goody two-shoes in the God Of War series.  We've also had it hinted that she wasn't a friend of Zeus, either.

3) That is the only risk he would take, and for what it's worth I think hatmoza's sufficiently high-profile that he would probably be investigated at some point anyways.  And of course we can all agree that Khuutra (Mafia) was also likely to be investigated early on; deflecting the inevitable investigation from a teammate would be a viable strategy.  Moreover, he's certainly doing quite a bit to try and discredit anyone who challenges his claims: perhaps he would figure that he can stave off an investigation by being obviously pro-town: the cop(s) certainly have enough folks to look into as it is.

No, if hatmoza's anti-town there's a rational motive behind his actions.

Nikells said:


Here's the bottom line:
Hatmoza's cards are flat out on the table now: if he's lying we'll be sure to catch him out soon.

How do you figure, especially now that a cop has died?  How is his capture inevitable, especially if we accept his statements without reserve?

Nikells said:


Right now there is nothing to prove that he is not telling the truth.

There's no smoking gun, but there's certainly cause for concern. 

1) He was quick to get defensive when challenged,

2) He's taken to accusing anyone who suspects him,

3) After his initial post he's made little effort to convince Kratos to expose himself (do you realize you've done just as much, if not more, for that cause than he has?),

4) He (a long-time Mafia veteran) committed the faux pas of posting long after night had fallen simply to reiterate that 'he will find Kratos' (why does he feel the need to reiterate this? The only reason I can see is to bolster his own credibility),

5) His story this morning requires us to believe that Kantor trusted him enough to NOT use his lie detecting ability on hatmoza's claimed role,

6) Kantor gained information to narrow Kratos to two people AND tell this information to Hatmoza, all in one night (i.e. Kantor can take two separate night actions in one night),

7) He's a psychiatrist who is told that his possible patient will become a vigilante: judging from the last game with a psychiatrist, the psychiatrist is not explicitly told what will happen when he finds his target,

8) He FoS'd Khuutra (Mafia), despite Khuutra doing the opposite of what he listed as being suspicious behavior.

 

I'm eager to hear his answer to your questions.

excellent post, Hatmoza just moved back onto my radar



Silver-Tiger said:
SciFiBoy2.0 said:

again, its incredibly obvious that Zeus is in the game and was targetted by the Mafia last night, why people dont want to believe this when it basically says it in the Day Start narration is beyond me, perhaps they are mafia and hope that this makes the doctor/protector ignore the possibility of there being a Zeus, so doesnt try and protect him?

Hatmoza im not sure about, his role-claim sounds plausable, but im not convinced of his alignment..


Exactly. Zeus is a way too important character to miss in the game, saying that he doesn't play is like God of War without Kratos.

@Dtewi:

Why shouldn't he reveal that Zeus was attacked? Revealing the role =/= revealing who has the role. In fact, 3ever even gave away another role when talking about Zeus' attack, the Sisters of Fate.

Okay let's go to the extreme, what if GodOfWar described the entirety of what happened last night only using the role names would you still consider that to be no big deal?



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Nikells said:
Vetteman94 said:
The bolded is a risk for every lynch, so that doesnt really apply here. 

As for your first one, thats if he is telling the truth, and while a vigilante can be useful they can still be extremely dangerous for the town as well.  Since at night they are still just randomly picking targets. 

Ok: but I think it's more of a risk to lynch him than anyone else since he's revealed so much already.

So far the only valid reason to lynch Hatmoza is the elaborate theory that he's a mafia serial killer recruiter who thought it would be a great idea to announce his role to the town immediately and hope he didn't get investigated by the cop.

Also: if Hatmoza is telling the truth and we lynch him we're theoretically losing two townies instead of one.

How is his elaborate theory any better than the other that has been laid out in his opposition?  

Hell I'll play the speculation game for a minute here.  It seems the Gods are pro-town,  its probably a bad assumption but i think its true at least some of them are,  so why and how would he be able to turn a character to aid the very people Kratos seeks for revenge?  And he claims to be someone who also plots against those very Gods