@Vette

I'll give that, yes. I was mostly looking at numbers compared to total consoles sold, considering the...ah...what's the word...fanaticism of the fans. So alright, I'll throw out my MGS4 comparison. After that, it's mostly trends I'm thinking of. GT3: A-Spec did sell early, that's true, but if GT4 sold at 70m consoles, obviously there was a slight downward trend of sales in comparison to total consoles.

Either way, just consider me the low end guy. I feel it's realistic. But as said, if my numbers get crushed, I shall be the first person to tip my hat and admit defeat.

You don't have to be mighty to see that there's something wrong with your numbers. I'll still take the compliment though ;)

The common second week for a game in Japan is usually 1/5 of the first week. So if you predict 350k FW, then second week will most likely be around 70-80k. And then the third week is even lower and so on and so forth.

It's very rare for a big game in Japan to have a LT total that is the double of it's FW sales. So even predicting 700k for first 10 weeks with a 350k FW is intense.

I'm an expert in Japanese culture after all.

Who the hell are you? the prediction police?  Stop telling everybody they are wrong, let them make their own predictions, as that is the point of the thread!!  Good grief!!

Now, OT:

First week

NA = 450k, Others = 1.2m, Japan = 350k, total = 2m

10 week

NA = 900k, Others = 2.4m, Japan = 600k, total = 3.9m

LTD

NA = 1.9m, Others = 4.2m, Japan = 1.5m, total = 7.6m

1st Week : Americas - 450K - Others : 800K - Japan 250K

10Weeks : Americas : 800K - Others : 2.1M - Japan : 600K

Yes there was a downward trend with GT4,  it happened with GT1 --> GT2.   But again you cant really compare to since it was the 2nd full GT game, while GT5 is the first on the PS3. 

Just want to put it out there,  I wasnt actually attacking your numbers,  just your methodology.  it has been brought up many times in the past and was beat down every single time,  I just figured we were past that.   If thats your numbers then thats fine,  just dont say that was your reasoning.

There's something wrong with this post...

Just kidding kidding.

Thank you!

Well this is no common game so why would common trends apply here?   

Also isnt the end of December and Early January the hoiliday season for Japan? 

@Vette

Actually, that was part of my reasoning to begin with, but you make a good argument for ignoring the MGS4 comparison, so all good there. And not to worry, I didn't think you were attacking my numbers. Attacking my numbers would involve drooling and snarling at me without reason or logic. There's been some good arguments though as to why my original conceptions should be slightly altered and I've reconsidered that. I'm going to keep my numbers the same, but its nice to have a debate that doesn't devolve into personal attacks and insults.

I believe it's been said already though that we've got three months. Once I see things like pre-order numbers and such, I might just alter them after all.