Two of the biggest 3rd party title games on the Wii are getting ready to see direct sequels in the second half of 2010.

Right now VGChartz has the total for the Wii version of Carnival games just slightly higher than those of Just Dance, but Just Dance will be in the lead in a couple of weeks.

So my question is which of these two games do you think will have higher total sales?

I think the Just Dance  franchise definitely has the momentum right now, but Just Dance 2 is going to have competition in the form of the orginal game which is still selling well and Dance on Broadway which just released and seems like it may become a hit in Europe. Plus it seems games that have sequels release soon after the original don't do so well on the Wii (for ex. Boom Blox Bash Party)

New Carnival Games has the "New" description in it, similar to New Super Mario Bros. It is also going to utilize the MotionPlus device which should help change gameplay up a bit. New Carnival Games however also has a DS version which may detract sales from the Wii version. Also Nintendo is going to be releasing Wii Party, which might also be in direct competition with New Carnival Games.

So what do you think, which game will sell more and what do you expect the total sales of both games to be?

I think both are going to see lower totals from the original, but am going to give the edge to New Carnival Games, and say it will get to 2.2 million and Just Dance 2 at 2 million total.

Anybody have any thoughts on this? I thought it was actually a kind of interesting topic. A lot of the talk about 3rd party sales has gone to Epic Mickey and Goldeneye, but these 2 are sequels to some of Wii's biggest games relasing within a few months of each other (suppposedly).

Really depends in the music line up for just dance 2.... But since i really like the first game im going with just dance selling more!

I really hope Just Dance 2 sells more.

At least it's somewhat fun.

Just Dance 2 will outsell New Carnival Games (though I probably will get NCG long before JD2 as I don't have JD1 yet).

The reason is this -- Carnival Games Mini-Golf. While the first Carnival Games was seen as a fun diversion and a must have (and a hard-to-find for a couple of years), the flood of me-too carnival themed games as well as the mediocre (at best) mini-golf spin off in the same franchise will have make people hesitant to buy this sequel than they would have been otherwise. Meanwhile, Just Dance is "hot" right now -- even if those doing the dancing are anything but.

Mike from Morgantown

I'm going with Just Dance. It has more room to grow, more room to offer people a reason to upgrade.

Just Dance 2 will blow it away.

It is interesting that everyone seems to be picking Just Dance 2. I just thought with the previous game still selling and Dance on Broadway there might not be room for it. Bu it will probably be how things were when Guitar Hero was at its peak, previous version still sellling well, but the new version does great also.

Are people picking Just Dance 2 because they think it is going to do really well, or doyou think New Carnival Games is going to do poorly?

I'm just wondering if people really want more Carnival Games?

It's like Deca Sports. People were hungry for more Wii Sports, so they bought Deca. By the time Deca Sports 2 came around, there were countless similar sports game compilations and Wii Sports Resort was on the horizon and promising something really new, so nobody really cared for Deca Sports 2. I don't see how Carnival Games can offer something really new.

Just Dance, on the other hand, can easily offer more just by adding more dances and more music. Then on top of that they might be able to add WM , balance board, or even Ubisoft's camera as input devices. And then finally they can probably find a way to add more game modes that might engage different players.

I'm going to buck the trend and say NCG over JD2 although JD2 will likely be quicker out of the gate.

The reason why is because while JD sells incredibly well, it's not played very often.   Avg play time per person is about 6hrs.   So with such low useage, why are people going to buy the same game again?  

DDR also has this problem, the original sells better then 2,3,Disney.   People are happy with one in a series, especially the Wii crowd as can be seen by countless sequel failures.    UNLESS they change it significantly from the original.

With NCG using WM it's not the same experience, nor does it have any comparable competition on the market.  It's not sports like WSR nor a party game like Wii Party, and no other mini-game fest uses WM giving it it's own place in the market.  It should see the same boost in interest TW10 got (but not 11) when it added WM .   Also, with soooo few games using WM I'm sure people will be happy to find one that does, that also caters to their tastes (IE: Not RS2)

Also CG's hasn't been overused like Deca Sports, Game Party and possibly Rabbids.   It's been years since a true CG so people will be more eager to try it out.   Although Mike_Intellivision is right about the lousy Mini-golf negatively affecting the brand but since that was a spin-off people may be more forgiving.