Well Said dude

Anyways Good Read OP!!

I didn't forget about the cheap phats. My post is a bit long, so it's easy to miss the fact that I tried to cut the phat out of the numbers. I accept I may have estimated the split of phat to slim wrongly.

The 40% for 360s figure in the link you posted changes the analysis if true, given I figured a worst case scenario for 360s was 80% on the launch week. I figured that given the immediate phat price cut post E3 without the supply channels being refreshed the available number of phats would be diminished significantly by launch day for 360s. Perhaps if there were still a decent number of phats around then the 360s was in the 60% range for it's launch week. I'm assuming NPD must have provided the people who pay for their data (Pachter et al) an estimated breakdown of slim & phat sales. There's a bit of haziness in the Americas numbers for sure, I doubt even the 40% figure they use is definitive. I'll concede that possibly ~96-128K of America's 360s launch week is 360s rather than the 128K-144K I assumed. Still if for 15 days in June 360s sold 180K I'm picking that the first week had the higher sales by a reasonable margin.

I'm more positive about the EMEAA 360s % because I'm pretty sure the cheap phats were on sale prior to 360s release for a couple of weeks at least. And the cheap phats were not selling much prior to 360s launch, so there's no reason to think that the cheap phats would all of a sudden spike in sales coincident with the 360s launch. So I stand by my 80-90% estimate.

I agree there are a number of variables that makes direct comparison between PS3 slim launch and 360s launch difficult. Taking out phat sales in both cases is part of making the comparison more robust, but it also requires an educated, or uneducated in my case, guess thus introducing a confounding variable at the same time as trying to eliminate one. I was attempting to look only at the respective slim sales by trying to eliminating the phat artifacts. Revising Americas figures drops 360s WW cumulative launch down to between 275 and 305K.

There's no debate that PS3 slim sold more units in its opening week than 360s. The facts are here in the chartz. What I was looking at was the qualitative meaning behind the respective sales. If we assume the (new) worst case scenario for 360s of 275K we are still looking at an incredible lift in sales for a console that was not dropped in price. And this is at the same time as the phat was dropped in price meaning the 360s was not only competing with PS3 and Wii, it was also competing with its hefty but cheap brother.

In my opinion, even at as "low" as $275K, what the 360s achieved across the globe is more impressive than what PS3 slim achieved in its launch week when you consider the context of the 2 launches. That's not to say the PS3 slim launch wasn't impressive. Everyon'e socks were knocked off, and we all recall the naysayers saying the Slim effect would last no more than a month. But I have to admit the 360s launch blew me away. I have to mea culpa and say that even after reading of the UK sales (prior to EMEAA numbers being posted) I was picking that the rest of EMEAA wouldn't double that number. I was wrong by a HUGE margin, HUGE. So I was more stunned by that than I was by PS3 Slim. And the UK result was off the charts.

It's fair to either dismiss the Japan difference or uphold it. It all depends on how you want to contextualise the data. I think it's valid in this context note that, still, the largest difference between PS3 Slim and 360s launches is Japan. Because it allows you to consider how well 360s did in the markets where it has been selling well historically. But also while MS can't make significant inroads into Japan this is a problem for MS, especially if they really want a shot at the number one spot. I don't see Japan changing, and in all likelihood Wii's successor will kick ass there similar to (but perhaps less comprehensively) the Wii and Nextbox will remain a distant 3rd. And this can't be ignored when looking at global sales.

I suspect the biggest point which can be implied with the Xbox 360 revision is how much damage the reputation of unreliability must have done to the sales of the console. I suspect that the increase in sales was mainly due to latent demand from people who wanted an Xbox 360 but were held back by the stigma of unreliability or people who had an Xbox 360 and wanted to upgrade to a better design.

Im sure there are other factors involved like perhaps noise or wireless, but overall I suspect its the reliability. I remember when I was working in retail when the PS2 slim came out. A lot of people bought them because they had experienced or had feared their PS2 breaking down. In this case the reliability problem is greater and beyond that the step up for the most unreliable consoles is quite significant if someone was going from an early 2006/2007 20GB to a 250GB revision console they'd get a significant boost in HDD space as well as reliability, lower noise and the ability to install/download games and a warranty.

I believe it does have some longer term significance because as a redesign it shifts the value proposition somewhat given the Arcade will have a reasonable 4GB storage space and the likely inclusion of wireless with both models. Furthermore it gives people who may have passed up on the 360 a reason to give the console another look because it looks completely new. I know I did, when I saw one displayed out in the open at a local store I certainly stopped to have a second glance at it. I believe its enough on its own to lift sales over a longer 6-12 month term or beyond, although it wouldn't be any more than 5-10% over what it would have otherwise had.

Good analysis.

In EMEA the new model arrived after the discount so it seems fair to assume the bulk of the spike was the new model.

The only data points I noticed was that in UK the sales of HDD transfer kits spiked massively at a number of retailers and Amazon, right along with the big jump for the 360s, leading me to believe, in addition to other factors, that a lot of the sales may have been to existing 360 owners.

Comparing the new 360 to the new PS3 this makes total sense to me.

The PS3 Slim was a re-design intended to allow for the console to be sold cheaper.  Apart from consuming less power and some tentative suspicions 60 GB models were more prone to failure there was no reason to upgrade a Phat PS3 for a Slim.  In fact, for most people doing so meant downgrading their console.  No doubt some die hard PS3 fans did, but your average PS3 owner wouldn't have been.  As a 60GB BC PS3 owner the Slim has no attraction to me really and I'd be sacrificing features I currently have to buy one.

The 360s though is another story.  It's smaller, quieter, has a smaller power brick, a decent HDD size and built in WiFi.  It is also expected to be far more reliable.  For existing 360 owners the 360s represented a sensible upgrade option.  Particularly in UK most people I know with a 360 or a PS3 use WiFi, and the built in WiFi plus the other features make the new model far more desirable in my book.  If I had an old model 360 I'd seriously consider the upgrade unless my purchase had been made fairly recently.

Of course, another scenario is that potential demand for the 360 was higher than sales have indicated but had been held back by reliability issues plus perceived cost of buying the 360 plus WiFi as an additional cost plus expensive larger HDD.  In which case a fair bit of the spike could be pent up demand for a reliable, more cost effective (for WiFi users and heavy HDD users) 360 console.

If the latter was the case we should see the 360s settle to a much more elevated average weekly sales position.  If the bulk of the sales really were existing owners, then we can expect to see the 360s settle somewhere closer to where the console was before - although I think the new model is good enough to ensure at least a minor average weekly sales rise.

Personally I think it's a split.  The new console (and it's price) doesn't seem enough (unless fear of RROD was massive) to warrant such a jump, particularly in the UK, without a decent price drop so I'm assuming unless proven wrong by the data that a fair chunk of that spike was existing 360 owners buying a 360s, alongside the usual weekly new owners plus a modest spike of additional new owners down to marketing and awareness of the more attractive model.

It's done fantastic, as it has beaten almost eveyone's expectations.

However, this is only short term success, and although I think it's going to have an impact (albeit not major) longer term,  it's not a game changer. The PS3 Slim launch beat it - and fairly in comparison terms:

- PS3 recieved a 25% price cut - but still remained a lot more expensive

- 360 did have clearance sales

- 360S had no price cut

So I think it's fair enough to say that on average, worldwide, the PS3 has more demand currently (assuming the 360s isn't a game changer).

Everything boils down to Kinect - and I'd love to know how Microsoft themselves think it's going to do as it directly dictates when their next console will be coming. If Kinect doesn't rise 360 sales, a new console has to be coming soon enough:

- The 360 released a year earlier (so is older) and has less price cuts left in it. If Kinect doesn't boost sales it has nowhere left to go without significantly making more losses by aggressively cutting the price. It can although stick in there for a year or so with the PS3 at reasonable, profitable prices, but after that a new console has to be near its release.

If however Kinect is a success, it's a whole different ball game for Microsoft. It will enable them to increase sales, profits - and hold off on a new console, meaning when it releases it will be more up-to-date, or at least it should be.

I think in around 8 months time we will finally be able to see where this gen, and next, is going.

stop it bhr you are going off topic, keep your stats and opinions to yourself.

ot: 360 s sales aren't surprising as it has no rrod, and considering the uk and us have the highest attach ratio i expected those sales, will the slim have legs? it depends how many people want to upgrade if in one month everyone who wants to upgrade did it, i would expect 360 sales to be below ps3.

can we stop calling the old design phat or fat? thing is taller, not bigger.... 360T? maybe?

I send that, you need to come back full time and crush the BS spread around here Zen.

In australia and im assuming NZ the xbox slim went up in price and now is 449 and 499 respectively so our 2 markets wouldnt have had a large boost. Reckon it will be big when kinect hits though, there have been a few news paper reports about it.