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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360: 2008 VS 2010 - 2nd Half

postofficebuddy on 09 October 2010
kowenicki said:
postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:

After seeing this week's EMEAA numbers I can't see the 360 matching the 2008 holiday. It's going to start being dramatically down in that region compared to 2008 come the end of September. And I still suspect we're overtracking it in that region. I stand by my 500k up on 2008 prediction.


same old same old from you, "overtracked blah blah", Others sales are fine, and not the main driving force for X360 sales over xmas anyway.


I said 'suspect'. I never stated our numbers are off. I'll gladly concede my error if Gfk proves my suspicion unfounded. :edit: And before you go accusing me of bias, Source thinks it won't match holiday '08 either.

The Source thinks that 2010 was the worst year for 360 software ever, The Sourse also thinks kinect will do nothing and The Source  predicted the lowest 360 sales of all the VGC community in the prediction thread for holidays 2010. 

See a pattern?

PS. ioi disagrees with his predictions for this holiday.

have a look at this... particularly near the bottom of the thread.   http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=114610&page=1#

 


Hmm, I didn't realize he had the lowest prediction in the community. Although I seem to be correct with my EMEAA being dramatically down on 2008 prediction. The Source seems to be pretty pessimistic but like I said I'll wait untill we have Gfk, NPD, and quarterly report data. And I'll refer you back the Canadian sales thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117360&page=1&str=1262308876#

:edit: And I'm not trashing on ioi but it's not like either he or the Source are infallible. He also predicted that Move would have no impact and would only sell about 65k in Americas in September.



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Squilliam on 15 October 2010

Its like 3 weeks to Kinect right? woot. Awesome to see this 2008 / 2010 comparison ongoing.



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Seece on 19 November 2010

If sales stay flat now for the rest of the year, 360 will finish just over 13 million for 2010.



 

eliasg on 19 November 2010
Seece said:

If sales stay flat now for the rest of the year, 360 will finish just over 13 million for 2010.


Thats some crazy numbers for MS. XBOX brand is here to stay!!!!



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Squilliam on 22 November 2010

Not bad!



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TheSource on 22 November 2010

Kowenicki if you're going to say I said something retarted like X360 software is performing worse in 2010 than in 2005 you should at least show everyone where I made the claim instead of just exaggerating how stupid I am for your own amusement.

I don't know that I was totally off-base comparing Q4 2008 to Q4 2010 for X360. October 2010 (768k) was down for X360 against October 2008 (804k) when I last checked the data points. November will be up. When some of the Kinect impact wears off in December, logically you'd split the difference between Oct vs Oct and Nov vs Nov. X360 will sell 850k / 900k or something in the USA in Nov (about 1m in the Americas) - which puts it at 1.55m in December. Japan adds 50,000. EMEAA is similar to the USA. Call it 3.25m worldwide, if we include the rest of the world, and 3.15m for USA, Europe, Japan. It's not like I'm going to be much out for December, and you were only 500k different from my Dec prediction anyway, get over yourself.

X360 has also NEVER doubled in the USA from Nov to Dec, its always more like 1.5x to 1.8x growth, except in 2006 when it had far weaker numbers and went from 500k to 1.1m, so its hard to get worked up about Kinect changing that, as price drops should have made X360 more seasonal, with bigger lifts too. Instead the lifts remained in the 1.5x to 1.8x range. Over 2005-2009, avg growth for X360 from Nov to Dec was exactly x1.65, so there is no reason to expect a 2m December or whatever.



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Squilliam on 03 December 2010

So close! I wonder how close we're going to get between now and then. 1.3M against december sales shouldn't be too hard and we have 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st. We have 5 whole weeks in the busiest time of the year to cover 1.3M. I think I might be right Seece, what do you think? Over by a million?



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Seece on 03 December 2010
Squilliam said:

So close! I wonder how close we're going to get between now and then. 1.3M against december sales shouldn't be too hard and we have 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st. We have 5 whole weeks in the busiest time of the year to cover 1.3M. I think I might be right Seece, what do you think? Over by a million?

What do you mean 1.3 mill? Up 1.3M Dec over Dec??!



 

Mendicate Bias on 03 December 2010
TheSource said:

Kowenicki if you're going to say I said something retarted like X360 software is performing worse in 2010 than in 2005 you should at least show everyone where I made the claim instead of just exaggerating how stupid I am for your own amusement.

I don't know that I was totally off-base comparing Q4 2008 to Q4 2010 for X360. October 2010 (768k) was down for X360 against October 2008 (804k) when I last checked the data points. November will be up. When some of the Kinect impact wears off in December, logically you'd split the difference between Oct vs Oct and Nov vs Nov. X360 will sell 850k / 900k or something in the USA in Nov (about 1m in the Americas) - which puts it at 1.55m in December. Japan adds 50,000. EMEAA is similar to the USA. Call it 3.25m worldwide, if we include the rest of the world, and 3.15m for USA, Europe, Japan. It's not like I'm going to be much out for December, and you were only 500k different from my Dec prediction anyway, get over yourself.

X360 has also NEVER doubled in the USA from Nov to Dec, its always more like 1.5x to 1.8x growth, except in 2006 when it had far weaker numbers and went from 500k to 1.1m, so its hard to get worked up about Kinect changing that, as price drops should have made X360 more seasonal, with bigger lifts too. Instead the lifts remained in the 1.5x to 1.8x range. Over 2005-2009, avg growth for X360 from Nov to Dec was exactly x1.65, so there is no reason to expect a 2m December or whatever.

What about when 360 sales hit 25 million and you said that sales were going to slow down because the 360 was mostly selling to its old userbase?

Or how about a while after that when you predicted around 40 or 45 million lifetime sales for the 360?



                                           

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Squilliam on 03 December 2010
Seece said:
Squilliam said:

So close! I wonder how close we're going to get between now and then. 1.3M against december sales shouldn't be too hard and we have 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st. We have 5 whole weeks in the busiest time of the year to cover 1.3M. I think I might be right Seece, what do you think? Over by a million?

What do you mean 1.3 mill? Up 1.3M Dec over Dec??!

1.3M to match 2008 and another million to exceed it by 1M





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