for a while i thought kinect could do great things for the 360 but having seen the line-up i no longer believe that.  i don't see the blue ocean audience flocking to the 360, most of the games they have are clones of experiences on the wii.  i doubt too many people will give up their wiis for a 360 and if they don't have a wii they probably just don't care.  the red ocean probably won't care much for kinect either cause for them it is quite possibly the worst line up in the world.

sony should do okay-ish with move.  won't move many consoles but i think the sony faithful will buy it up. 

Looking at the numbers so far, i'd wager that the 360 and ps3 end the year pretty close. 

Er hang on....You just said

"most of the games they have are clones of experiences on the wii.  i doubt too many people will give up their wiis for a 360 "

But then said

"sony should do okay-ish with move." 

That seems a bit hypocritical to me. How can you say one will do bad as it is a clone of the Wii (Kinect) but the other do well? (Move). In terms of clones isn't having a motion control controller and navigation controller a copy of a Wii remote and Nunchuck? I mean is that experience not the same as on the Wii then?

Kinect is different from the Wii remote system because you don't need a remote! That is a big difference, that is something neither Nintendo or Sony can offer. That does not mean it will sell loads it just means that you can't say the experience is the same on Wii as it is with Kinect as that is just wrong.

In terms of sales i think the obvious new arcade slim and it's price cut will be what wins holiday for 360. People seem to be ignoring that in some regions PS3 is already down year over year. To drive sales it is going to need more then just GT5. GT5 will help shift a few consoles but not millions...The majority of GT fans will already own a PS3 now. If Sony can make a big ish price cut then it will do well. If not then it will get crushed this holiday. People will not pay £300 for a PS3 then £100 to get the Move components. That is just crazy thinking.

It looks like price cuts were the reason for the trends.

2007: Ps3 sold better ( it was just released)

early 2008: Ps3 continued to sell better with momentum from 2007

Late 2008: 360 gets a price cut and outsells ps3 (Premium drops to 299)

Early 2009: 360 continued to sell better with momentum from 2008

Late 2009: Ps3 gets a price cut and outsells 360 (Ps3 drops to $299)

Early 2010: Ps3 continues to sell better with momentum from 2009

Late 2010: If there are no price cuts then I see the Ps3 outselling 360. The Slim may be attractive, however GT5 is also releasing. We'll have to see what happens. Correct me if I'm wrong, but has 360/Ps3 ever sold 4.6mil in 2010 by the 1st week of July. This may show that 2009s price cut/slim will have longer lasting momentum. Kinect is a wild card. Move probably won't move consoles this year. I see the controller themselves selling to existing Ps3 owners. Maybe it will make a name for itself by 2011.

Also: how big is SOCOM in America?

What leads you to believe this?

Because the PS3 is a few months away from entering it's 5th year on sale. I doubt very much after half a decade those die hard fans have waited around twidling their thumbs playing PS2 waiting to upgrade. Those die hards would of done so when Pro-logue came out.

i'm not really sure what you are even confused on so let me be more specific.

move and kinect both have wii rip off experiences - dancing games, sports complilations, exercise games.  none of those games seem to do anything "new" that will cause these devices to sell to the crowd that are buying wiis, imo.

move supports some core games like lbp, echochrome 2, socom, ect.  kinect does not.  i suspect that move will sell more than kinect to the existing owners.  killzone fans may want move for killzone 3.  halo fans will want kinect for what.. kinectiamals?  doubtful.

see,  i stated that neither of these new devices will drive hardware sales.  its just that in the case of my ps3 statement you decided to crop what i wrote to change the meaning of the statement.

Well, I disagree, but I guess we'll have to wait to see if the fans have already purchased a Ps3. : D

Maybe they would want it for games like Fable 3, Forza 4?

Your statment is basically implying Move is more appealing to the wider audience. I disagree. There will be all types of people interested in Kinect. Those who want to play games like Fable 3,Star Wars etc. There will be those who want to keep fit with the fitness game, those who like dance games like the dance game. And then there will be those who like Kinect for it's other features such as voice activated television control/video conferencing. Some will be interested in it for the ESPN sports deal. Lot's of people watch sports right? etc etc

You can't pigeon hole Kinect into one bracket of people....

You don't need Kinect for ESPN, just xbox live.

I thought you needed it to be able to use all the interactive features i.e asking it to replay the last 30 secs when you want?