My guess is the 4000-8000 option.

The 360 has been selling above 3k for a while, and with the MH game, its not hard to see it selling above 10k.

People need to give MS some credit, theyve drastically changed their image in Japan, and actually have the support of the developers and publishers. Their next system could be a mild hit there.

i dont think it will triple sales. maybe double so about 5k

5k.

Considering your avatar and user name, I take that as a sign of life not being fair.  No WAY should I of beat you with the OVER 9000 reference

I think 9000 is probably the line here.  I see it getting a bit of a burst, but not a lot.

Why not? Their sales are consistently like 10 fold over last gen in Japan (they were selling a couple hundred Xbox's a week late in the generation, now 2-3,000 X360's).

Believe it or not they are making enourmous progress there. Almost to the point of being a viable platform imo.

I bet they would support sales of 400,000 or more of a Final Fantasy title just in Japan for example, if SE released a 360 one there. If we go by the PS3's FFXIII sales relation to install base.  You dont think when SE is next considering taking a FF title multiplatform, 400,000-500,000 potential Japan sales wont be meaningful in their thinking? Possibly even ensuring a Japanese release on X360 this time?

also, if there's one market that loves slim consoles (even if they arent that slim), it's Japan. PS3 never really took off in Japan until the PS3 slim.

I'd say 8001-12000

I came from the future and I can give you the sales numbers.

Xbox 360 --- 11,200

Monster Hunter Frontier --- 96,000

I remember Bayonetta doubled the 360 sales.

Monster Hunter, 360 slim and a price cut should be enough for more than 10k.

I think that the 360 can sell 14K in Japan that week. I do think though that Kinect will give Microsoft and the 360 new hope in Japan.