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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is It Possible For GT5 To OutSell Halo Reach Lifetime?...I Think So!

GT5 will finish lifetime around 7- 8million.

Halo Reach will lifetime sell around 12-14 million.

ODST was just an expansion for Halo 3 and will sell around 6 million lifetime.

 

There is absolutely no way GT5 will touch Reach sales.



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pezus said:
Hyruken said:

I think as someone else said some people are being pretty arrogant.

Have yet to see a single person back up their opinion of GT5 with facts and figures about how it will beat those numbers.

By saying 10m units sold with 130m consoles to sell to does not make that view stronger, it weakens it. PS3 has only a 3rd of that install base, to expect it to beat it with that much of a handicap is laughable.

What have you got to say about MGS3 vs MGS4 then?


MGS3 has various versions i.e substance.... However even if we look at those numbers we see in Japan MGS3 sold more then MGS4 and in others MGS3 sold equal with MGS4. The only place where it has had a big change is US and that is only by 800k.

By that logic you can say GT3 sold 14m and GT4 sold 10m. A big drop.

GT figures are anything but consistent.

What some of you people are saying is GT5 will basically sell more then the top 3 PS3 exclusive games combined...

Selling 10m units at the peak of a consoles life with no competition and 130m consoles to sell to is one thing. Selling 10m units while the console is far from that previous peak, with 2 other competitiors and 35m consoles to sell to is something totally different.

If that happens then i would be shocked.

 



just so ya'll know gt3 had around 12m consoles WW when it released not 120 not 136 but 12 million gt5 will have 3 times more user base when it releases not 3 times less ok, games get there majority of there sales whitin the fisrt yr or two of release ps2 had around 20m-40m user base in its first 2 yrs after gt3 released so saying gt3 had 130m user base is not really worth nothing



                                                             

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boilermaker11 said:
Hyruken said:

Ok i have spent a bit more time thinking about this question and i am now 100% certain answer will be no, probably not even close.

The key to the argument is attach ratios as others have mentioned. People seem to be ignoring the fact previous GT's had in most cases x3 consoles to sell to, hence they had high numbers.

For my explanation i will use the biggest selling GT game of all time GT3. A game that sold 14m units worldwide. The last GT game to break 11m units, which is important because Halo 3 broke that figure to. No other GT game has gone beyond that barrier. GT3 had 136m consoles to sell to.

So if we look at the 136m PS2's sold we see 52m were sold in US, which is 38% of sales. 61m sold in Others which is 44% and 25m in Japan which is 18%.

PS3 is selling at roughly the same %'s. 35m PS3's sold, US 14m which is 40%, Others 16m which is 44%, and Japan 5m which is 14%.

So if we look at GT3 sales we see 14m sold. 7m in US, which is 50% of the total, 2m in Japan which is 14% of the total and 45% in others. Which instantly kills one myth raised in this thread, that it will sell more in Japan.

Now if we use those figures we can find out how many PS2 owners from each region bought GT3.

US attach rate was 13%.  Japan attach rate was 8%, and Others attach rate was also 8%.

If we take that attach rate into PS3 that would mean 1.82m in US, 1.12m in Japan and also 1.12m in Others.

Giving us a total of 3.4m. That number is the number of GT5 sold IF THE ATTACH RATIO FROM GT3 on PS2 repeated itself on PS3.

So for GT5 to have a chance of beating Reach we have to assume it will need to compete with Halo 3 numbers. After all i selected the biggest selling GT game so it is fair to do the same with Halo series.

360 has sold 40m units worldwide. Of those 40m sold 23m are in US which is 57% of the total. Others is 15m which is 37% of the total and 1m in Japan which is 3%.

Halo 3 sold 11m worldwide. 8m in US which is 72% of sales. 3m in Others which is 27% and 100k in Japan which is 1%.

So with those figures we can find out the attach rates for Halo 3 in each region.

In US 35% of 360 owners bought Halo 3. In Others 20% bought Halo 3 and in Japan 10% of 360 owners bought Halo 3.

Giving a total attach rate of 28% of all 360 owners buying Halo 3.

So if we follow that pattern set by Halo 3 of getting to 11m and copy it into the PS3 we would find.

35% attach rate in US of PS3 would be 4.9m, 20% attach rate in Others would be 3.2m and 10% attach rate in japan would be 500k.

Giving a total of 8.6m.

That is IF WE USE HALO 3 ATTACH RATIOS ON PS3.

So if you look at it logically your see not only will GT5 have to beat Halo 3's attach ratios it will need to beat it by around 25%. Which with the numbers of PS3's available is not going to happen.

The reason Halo 3 sold so well was because of it's american attach rate. 35% of people buying a game is outstanding. The difference with PS3 is it is nearly 10m units behind in US. Which while they are ahead in other regions it is not the right region for GT sales. As pointed out GT3 overall sales had 50% in US. Meaning half of GT5 sales will most likely be in US. If even 50% of US PS3 owners bought GT5 it would still be nowhere near Halo 3 sales.

Which basically concludes for GT5 to win it will need to break all gaming records this gen and do something no GT game has done for almost 10 years, which is break 11m units, whilst beating it's own franchises previous records with 66% less consoles to sell to.

The atach ratio figures are against it. If GT5 even sold 29% attach rate on PS3 it would still not beat Halo 3 numbers. It would need a ratio of around 35%. Meaning 1 in 3 people buy GT5.

Not going to happen.

Where you said GT3 had 136M consoles to sell to, that's where all your number crunching lost all value. GT3 came out in 2001. 2001!!!! The PS2 JUST released a year before that, and LESS than a year in NA and EU for the release for that game. If you're trying to say that GT3 sold that many because the PS2 is at 136M 9 years later....well, come on now.

Sure, it had legs, but to say to get to 14M, it took 9 years, and 136M PS2s. That's crazy. After all, VGC doesn't even track that game anymore. I'm pretty sure they had all they're data for that game in like 2005 when this site launched, since you know...GT4 came out then (not to say that GT3 sales stopped when GT4 came out, but that sales eventually plateaued LONG before 136M PS2 were sold)


What has it got to do with time?!

The biggest selling GT game is GT3, it sold 14m units. On the PS2 which has/had 130m consoles sold. How is that wrong exactly?

The figures i showed are over the entire consoles/games lifetime. GT3 came out around the PS2's first birthday. GT4 came out 4 years after that.

GT5 will come out after the PS3 has entered it's 5th year on sale. That is a big change from lastime.

If there was no Wii/360 and GT5 was released around a year mark after the PS3 launched then maybe it would have a cance at those figures. But as said above it no longer has that free reign, it has 2 competitors of which BOTH have sold more consoles then it. If you honestly think that won't play a part in the sales this time round then as i also said i just find that laughable.

Over the course of the PS3's lifetime i expect GT5 to sell around 8m copies. Nearly double that of the current number 1 PS3 exclusive. Expectiong it to almost treble it is just wishful thinking.



I find people useing the ratio number arguments a bit misleading.  None of the gt games had the full console amounts when they launched plus after newer versions came out the ps2 still sold tens of millions but the game sales dried up more.  How many more consoles will have sold in the year after gt5 releases?  In 2?  How many in 3?  To assume that for it to sell more than 10 million would need a huge ratio misses the point that tens of millions of ps3s will sell after gt5 launches as well. 

How many 360s were out when Halo 3 launched?  A lot fewer than there were when it hit 11 million.



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Halo Reach could outsell it, COULD. but it wont

If the game was called Halo 4, I still dont think it would.

I understand that many of you may be 16 year old shooter fans who roar with every thing that is halo. Loving your head sets and mountain dew halo parties, completely oblivious to anything else. You and all of your friends play only halo and COD, and that is fine.

but just know, when compared to GT fans WW, YOU are the minority.

Gran Turismo 5 will outsell any 1 Microsoft exclusive game ever, and become the largest selling HD console exclusive this gen in my opinion.



̶3̶R̶D̶   2ND! Place has never been so sweet.


Hyruken said:


What has it got to do with time?!

The biggest selling GT game is GT3, it sold 14m units. On the PS2 which has/had 130m consoles sold. How is that wrong exactly?

The figures i showed are over the entire consoles/games lifetime. GT3 came out around the PS2's first birthday. GT4 came out 4 years after that.

GT5 will come out after the PS3 has entered it's 5th year on sale. That is a big change from lastime.

If there was no Wii/360 and GT5 was released around a year mark after the PS3 launched then maybe it would have a cance at those figures. But as said above it no longer has that free reign, it has 2 competitors of which BOTH have sold more consoles then it. If you honestly think that won't play a part in the sales this time round then as i also said i just find that laughable.

Over the course of the PS3's lifetime i expect GT5 to sell around 8m copies. Nearly double that of the current number 1 PS3 exclusive. Expectiong it to almost treble it is just wishful thinking.

GT4 slowed gt3s sales.  Yet you don't say how many ps2s when the sales slowed you just say total sales.   GT4 had a bigger user base but for many people the difference between gt4 and gt3 might not have been enough to get a new game. 

Timing matters because you can't say something sold on a huge userbase and then only refer to the current userbase.  The current userbase fo ps3s is not comparable to the final base of the ps2 and should not be used as if it's the final base of what the ps3 will be.  The ps3 hasen't been out 4 years and it's over 35 million.  How many more ps3s will there be when gt5 stops selling?  So there will be a userbase big enough to support the gt5 selling very well by the time things are done.



pezus said:
Hyruken said:
pezus said:
Hyruken said:

I think as someone else said some people are being pretty arrogant.

Have yet to see a single person back up their opinion of GT5 with facts and figures about how it will beat those numbers.

By saying 10m units sold with 130m consoles to sell to does not make that view stronger, it weakens it. PS3 has only a 3rd of that install base, to expect it to beat it with that much of a handicap is laughable.

What have you got to say about MGS3 vs MGS4 then?


MGS3 has various versions i.e substance.... However even if we look at those numbers we see in Japan MGS3 sold more then MGS4 and in others MGS3 sold equal with MGS4. The only place where it has had a big change is US and that is only by 800k.

By that logic you can say GT3 sold 14m and GT4 sold 10m. A big drop.

GT figures are anything but consistent.

What some of you people are saying is GT5 will basically sell more then the top 3 PS3 exclusive games combined...

Selling 10m units at the peak of a consoles life with no competition and 130m consoles to sell to is one thing. Selling 10m units while the console is far from that previous peak, with 2 other competitiors and 35m consoles to sell to is something totally different.

If that happens then i would be shocked.

 

You contradicted yourself over there. How could GT4 sell less yet it had more consoles to sell to when it launched compared to GT3's launch?

What are those competitors you keep mentioning? Forza and Need for Speed or what?



The problem is we are now talking about how many consoles were out there when each game came out. Which is fair enough.

But if you want to work those %'s out then be my guest. The data is sadly incomplete so would just be guess work.

The competitors i mention are other consoles/formats. Back in the day most people had a PS2. That was the format of choice. It is no longer like that. Some people might now be the Mario Kart type on Wii, some might be the Forza type on 360, you could also say maybe now people have pc's good enough to play games too.

Point being the amount of people who buy games, in particular racing games will be spread out onto other formats while before they probably only had 1, which was the PS2. 



ultraslick said:

Halo Reach could outsell it, COULD. but it wont

If the game was called Halo 4, I still dont think it would.

I understand that many of you may be 16 year old shooter fans who roar with every thing that is halo. Loving your head sets and mountain dew halo parties, completely oblivious to anything else. You and all of your friends play only halo and COD, and that is fine.

but just know, when compared to GT fans WW, YOU are the minority.

Gran Turismo 5 will outsell any 1 Microsoft exclusive game ever, and become the largest selling HD console exclusive this gen in my opinion.

I will bet you my account access it doesn't. I will forfeit my account to you if GT5 sells more than Reach. Your dreaming alot here.

PS doesnt have the name in the US it needs to get close. ALL GT games sell 50% of the sales in US. Where 360 is killing it by over 10m consoles. 

GT5 selling more than Reach is fiction.



Chairman-Mao said:

I agree that GT5 will sell more. Reasons:

1) There has been 3 Halo games this gen (including Wars) and no GT games. As history shows the first GT game in each gen (GT & GT3) have outsold their respective sequels.

2) Reach has competition from Black Ops, GT5's biggest competition is probably Hot Pursuit which is a totally different type of racing game.

3) I think GT games have longer legs than Halo games and GT5 will sell well until GT6 comes out.


Prologue came out. GT5 will be the second GT.