What's Yakyuu? And that's why I said before bundles, if Sony heavily bundles GT5 with the PS3 in Japan, then I can see it doing 800k or so.

That was someone doing a joke apparently.

This one was taken from GT5 though. This one shows exactly what they are talking about in terms of textures and detail. Apparently car's don't have any mechanics underneath them!

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/2456/rkdh02.jpg 

"I wonder if this specific car really does have a flat bottom like most professional racing cars, but I wonder if standard cars do not have the bottom modelled. Anyone know?"

Left that part out of where you got that post picture from.

I am sure your right that some cars do indeed have underneath protectors i.e formula one cars.

But am not so sure most racing cars have them, especially Evo road racing cars which that is supposedly meant to be. Because how would they fix it when things go wrong during the race?

Alright, time to crush this attach rate argument here...

The obvious problem with comparing GT3's attach rates (now) with Halo 3's attach rate, is the massive amount of PS2's sold after GT3 was no longer being bought. To solve this, I'll show you specific dates in which GT3 had already sold most of its copies (with not too many PS2's sold):

Week ending August 19th, 2001: Japan's GT3 sales at about 1.7mil with 5.5mil PS3's sold, or a 31% attach rate. That's close enough to the current userbase of the PS3, so if GT5 is a hit / still popular there, we can expect at least 1.5mil from that region.

End of March 2003 (see page 31): Over 11 million copies of GT3 were shipped by the end of March 03. Since under 2 million were shipped to Japan, we know that at least 9 million were shipped outside Japan, so... That's over 9 million GT3 copies shipped to ~35 million PS2 consoles sold (VGC), likely close to a 25% attach rate in the west.

Attach rate really doesn't tell us much, since there are too many outside factors (like PS2's extremely fast rate of consoles sold), I don't think it's worth putting that much weight on.

As for other factors:

While people have mentioned Halo's popularity has constantly been increasing, the same can be said for Gran Turismo. Although the second title per console always performs worse, the first of the console (GT1, GT3, soon GT5) performs well. The exception here is European sales, which increased with every release besides GT2. Expect GT5's Europe to be nearly on par with Halo in America.

The increased competition (such as Forza 3) may mean less GT sales, but the same can be said for Halo. CoD is surely the bigger franchise out of the two, yet people think Halo will still do fine. I think the same will probably happen for GT5.

Bundles. I have no idea how many American copies of GT3 were sold due to bundles, so this could hurt the past sales' arguments for GT5 by quite a bit.

As for my prediction? I see GT5 selling at least 1.5mil in Japan, 3 million in America, and 5.5 million in Europe, which would clear 10. I just don't know how far it can go after that, though.

how can i say this w/o getting in trouble mother all racers review, gameplay, amount of cars tracks, realism, amount of different car series, and meta score wise

MK is mother of all sales but if we count the whole series combined on the consoles we'll find out that gt is the mother again

I think someone should get banned if they say GT5 won't sell as much as its predecessors because the PS2 doesn't have the same install base.

Explain MGS4 vs MGS3? MGS3 on a 100M userbase vs. what? 10M? 12M PS3 when MGS4 came out?

What possible spin can you put on that to cater to your argument that since the userbase isn't as high, there's no way that GT5 can perform as predicted? 

It's such a weak statement that it just *catch this* doesn't contribute to the thread. Which is apparently ban worthy

#sneers

I mean, dude wanted to bring in attach rates and what not to prove his side. Well look at it like this. GT 2001 Tokyo Concept and GT4: Prologue both sold like 1.5M. GT5P sold 3.75, according to VGC, and that doesn't even include digital downloads. No GT game has sold under 9M, and this could very well be the most anticipated one so far (judging by Concept --> GT3, GT4P --> GT4). And you all want to say that Reach is just gonna be some juggernaut and GT5 is nothing? 

You all better hope that Reach gets the same marketing treatment that Halo 3 got. I mean, cause think about it. People play Halo for the multiplayer. ODSTs multiplayer was just as good as Halo 3s yet it sold so much less, and I'd chuck that up to marketing. So here's hoping to some Reach Mountain Dew