First of all, it seems to me you're relying on false "casual vs hardcore" dichotomy too much, second of all, MS is likely making the same mistake. Concerning the OP, it will address some points you've made, if we put it this way - too crowded genres means to many games with similar appeal competing for the same gamer, thus eventually it  may lower potential sales of every one of them. Inability to stand out against background is what makes Kinect games obsolete, they're likely not to follow any Wii blockbuster route. In other words, Microsoft is sooo 2006.

Exactly one year ago I would have said you're absolutely right.

After last year's E3, I remember that I saw quite a number of articles about "Project Natal" in various mainstream media in my country. Media that I never even expected to report about something videogame-related seemed suddenly absolutely enthusiastic about Natal, describing how fascinating Milo was and what potential it has etc.

In the last 11 months however I cannot remember reading anything about Natal in non-gaming media, but that's no wonder since there was no press-conference about Kinect in that time. Then in the last two days I saw three articles about Kinect in mainstream media in my country. They weren't exactly negative, but reading between the lines it was obvious they were somehow disappointed. They wondered why they didn't see Milo again - and when it came to the actual Kinect games that Microsoft showed during the presentation, they were always described as being clones of successful WIi titles. It was always something like "Kinectimals is Nintendogs, Kinect Sports is Wii Sports, Your Shape is Wii Fit, Joy Ride is Mario Kart, Dance Central is just dance..."

I read around 3 articles about Kinect from the Seattle Times, none of which were negative.

Your gonna get some mate. But the overall feel in mainstream media is they love it. Seece posted about the mainstream media yesterday. Loads of amazing feedback. Absolutely loads.

It's now that you will read more. And find it on every morning show across America and Europe for a few weeks. Remember M$ are having demos across major cities for weekends with Kinect. 

As well as M$ reps in certain stores to let people demo it to. Game where I live is having one. Wooohooo.

I hope they have more then that.

They showed what they needed to show for the audience they wanted to attract.

I always have to talk my wife into letting me buy some new game/accessory for my gaming systems. It's an uphill battle. She is an anti-gamer.

Monday she sees me watching the M$ conference and as soon as HMX starts the dance game announcement, she perks up. "Ooh! What's that?" she asks. I explain, and now she's begging me to get the Kinect so she can play Dance Central.

My wife. Begging me to drop $200 on video game stuff. For HER.

The Kinect's target audience doesn't care about diversity. They care about accessibility, fun and the "wow" factor. If my wife is any indicator of the casual market's reception, M$'s launch titles are going to "move" some serious units (sorry, couldn't resist the pun).

I hope so,but I disagree for the simple fact that the price is so steep.

It's steep, but no more expensive than Move (for multiplayer) or Wii Fit Motion Plus.

The thing is, when people go to the store they think they're getting the Move for $100. Then they realize they need the extra controllers and whatnot, and it winds up being more than the Kinect. Same with the Wii. As a retailer, I can attest to the fact that people get weary once you start piling up extras. You tell new Wii buyers they're going to need a nunchuck and another Motion Plus for that extra ($30) controller if they want to actually play Wii Sports Resort, and they're like "no, it's okay... we're just going to get this for now..." Their reaction is "whoa, that's not what I thought this was gonna cost... I'm getting hosed here." With Kinect, it's just one product. One price. Four people can play. The family/causal shoppers will see that as a much better deal than the alternatives. Especially with the Arcade price drop. At least, that's what it looks like to me.

So a  varying range of genres and there's no diversity?
Also dont they know the only genre the 360 has is fps? I didn't see one!

@johnnyatlas. you need a bettwer wife.