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Forums - Sales - About the sales of SMG, one thing to remember

why would Sunshine be a better comparison than NSMB? DS and Wii are going to have similar user bases, both in terms of size and makeup. Gamecube has a much smaller and more focused user base. NSMB is absolutely the best game to compare galaxy with.



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I wasn't worried about SMG sales, so I'm not sure the reason for the thread, nor why it is being roped into a debate on SMG vs HALO 3, but since I'm avoiding work, I'll toss in my 2 pennies...

Some of the factors that I think is important to remember:

1) Halo 3 was incredibly frontloaded. It's like modern movie blockbusters that hype the shit out of their product and then drop off dramatically. Mario Galaxy was not sold in the same manner - it practically snuck onto store shelves.

2) Mario is simply the single most recognizable character in video games. Even casuals know him, and will be likely to pick up the title if the reviews are good enough (and they have been), so the "core vs casual" thing shouldn't be as much of a factor as it would be for some other franchises.

3) Mario's appeal is truly to all ages, and the Wii's numbers are growing faster than the 360's. In a year, I expect the Wii to have a 2:1 advantage world wide. Those 2 factors mean the Wii will have a much larger user base than the Older-Core-Gamer oriented Halo 3.

4) There is no shortage of good shooters on the 360. Hell, there's a bunch of good games this holiday that will give H3 a run for it's money (COD4, Mass Effect, BioShock, etc), but SMG is pretty much in a class by itself on the Wii. No other platformer is half as good (and if there were, they don't have the name recognition), and there aren't many titles in other genres to compete with either. In short, for the next few months at least, anyone who buys a Wii and asks "What games should I get?" will be told, first and formost, get SMG.



omgwtfbbq said:
why would Sunshine be a better comparison than NSMB? DS and Wii are going to have similar user bases, both in terms of size and makeup. Gamecube has a much smaller and more focused user base. NSMB is absolutely the best game to compare galaxy with.

I had bought into the "ONOZ Galaxy bombs in Japan" story but check this out:
NSMB - 5.07 out of 11.13 million total - 45.55%.
DS - 20.43 out of 58.07 - 48.27%.
45.55/48.27=0.947.
Super Mario Galaxy - 0.46 out of 1.75 million - 26.29%.
Wii - 3.95 out of 15.56 million - 25.39%
26.29/25.39=1.035.

So unless I am doing something wrong with the numbers it looks like Galaxy is just as popular in Japan as NSMB is relative to the console userbase in Japan as opposed to outside it. This is not what I expected to find when I started putting together these numbers ...

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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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omgwtfbbq said:
MontanaHatchet said:
The race with Halo 3 IS OVER.

Don't even get me started..

Super Mario Galaxy

Launch sales
1) 260,993
2) 78,563
3) 44,750
Launch sales
1) 689,270
2) 417,301
Launch sales
1) 207,021
2) 165,553
3) 162,420

Apart from in Japan, SMG launched way better than NSMB. The NSMB numbers in Europe and America are about 50% of the total sales, for a quite respectable 5 million sales. Remember that NSMB launched to a much bigger user base. I would say that Galaxy will outperform NSMB in America and Europe, and underperform in Japan. Overall, I expect the SMG sales to be lower than NSMB but not by much.

Halo 3 is looking like charting very similarly to Halo 2 (but slightly higher). With a larger overall 360 userbase than Xbox, Halo 3 should outperform Halo 2.

Remember that NSMB sold 11.33 million and is still selling quite strongly, while Halo 2 sold 8.39 million and is still charting but much weaker. I wouldn't call the battle between Halo 3 and SMG over quite yet... 


It's definitely not over.  Halo 3 had a much stronger start, but terrible legs.  Last week, SMG sold: 162,420 + 38,492 + 188,325 = 389,237 units in a single week.  It's only the third week, and clearly SMG is just getting warmed up.

What about H3 in its third week:  78,465 + 4,702 + 252,596 = 335,763.  Relative to SMG, it had an extremely hard dropoff.  Consider that it started with much higher sales and fanfare, and three weeks in it was already selling more slowly than SMG!

And last week?  Halo 3 sold:  62,409 + 1,075 + 54,417 = 111,901.   Don't expect numbers this low from SMG anytime soon.

Let's compare SMG at 25 weeks to Halo 3 at 25 weeks and see how they look.  If Halo 3 is still up by more than 1.5 million units, I will be extremely surprised.  I expect total units sold to converge around December 2008. 

SMG is a bigger experience than Halo 3.  It's newer, it's fresher, and it's accessible to more people. 



omgwtfbbq said:
why would Sunshine be a better comparison than NSMB? DS and Wii are going to have similar user bases, both in terms of size and makeup. Gamecube has a much smaller and more focused user base. NSMB is absolutely the best game to compare galaxy with.

No. This is the trap that people fell into when trying to predict sales for SMG and used NSMB as the reference. 2D Mario is a different genre than 3D Mario. You can can compare the two and come up with lots of similarities but at root of it all they are very different games that appeal to their own distinct crowd. The comparison between the two can give you indications and you might adduce some small a priori noema that will help engender further investigation. Straight up comparison such as looking at sales for NSMB and assigning that some predictive value for SMG sales is not relevant because they are two radically different games.



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fkusumot said:
omgwtfbbq said:
why would Sunshine be a better comparison than NSMB? DS and Wii are going to have similar user bases, both in terms of size and makeup. Gamecube has a much smaller and more focused user base. NSMB is absolutely the best game to compare galaxy with.

No. This is the trap that people fell into when trying to predict sales for SMG and used NSMB as the reference. 2D Mario is a different genre than 3D Mario. You can can compare the two and come up with lots of similarities but at root of it all they are very different games that appeal to their own distinct crowd. The comparison between the two can give you indications and you might adduce some small a priori noema that will help engender further investigation. Straight up comparison such as looking at sales for NSMB and assigning that some predictive value for SMG sales is not relevant because they are two radically different games.


I honestly can't remember the last time a poster used an English word I was totally unfamiliar with. 

(W3NID) noema (noun) in Husserlian philosophy:  the objective aspect of or the content within an intentional experience -- distinguished from noesis

That seems kinda ... obscurely hyperspecific for this discussion.  Also, I don't understand what exactly the "intentional experience" is.  Could you please elaborate on what you mean by an "a priori noema"? 

On a related note, is there any specific reason that that one sentence had such an abundance of 'college words'?


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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan said:
fkusumot said:
omgwtfbbq said:
why would Sunshine be a better comparison than NSMB? DS and Wii are going to have similar user bases, both in terms of size and makeup. Gamecube has a much smaller and more focused user base. NSMB is absolutely the best game to compare galaxy with.

No. This is the trap that people fell into when trying to predict sales for SMG and used NSMB as the reference. 2D Mario is a different genre than 3D Mario. You can can compare the two and come up with lots of similarities but at root of it all they are very different games that appeal to their own distinct crowd. The comparison between the two can give you indications and you might adduce some small a priori noema that will help engender further investigation. Straight up comparison such as looking at sales for NSMB and assigning that some predictive value for SMG sales is not relevant because they are two radically different games.


I honestly can't remember the last time a poster used an English word I was totally unfamiliar with.

(W3NID) noema (noun) in Husserlian philosophy: the objective aspect of or the content within an intentional experience -- distinguished from noesis

That seems kinda ... obscurely hyperspecific for this discussion. Also, I don't understand what exactly the "intentional experience" is. Could you please elaborate on what you mean by an "a priori noema"?

On a related note, is there any specific reason that that one sentence had such an abundance of 'college words'?

 Husserl thought that the way we talked about comparisons was important and should be very specific. The intentional experience is the active one and may exist before hand, in principle, a priori. Specifying the noema keeps this in the objective vice the subjective realm. The analysis is a little like Kant's in the Critique of Judgment. So in the comparion you might find an element that is common to both SMG and NSMB is used to different ends and in an apparently not ironic sense. When you compare them their will still be tension between the modality of both uses.

Anyway, sorry for geeking out like that. All my graduate and post-graduate studies were in Philosophy, Greek Philosophy and the Early Church Fathers like Augustine up to Aquinas.

The sentence in question was what it was to very narrowly define what type of comparison could yield grist for discussion. 



Final-Fan said:
Just for fun -- here are the sales numbers (in millions) and attachment rates for Super Mario "main series" titles and the consoles they sold on.

NSMB is not counted because its sales numbers have not finalized, and neither have the DS's.

*SMB - 40.23
SMB3 - 17.28
NES - 61.79
17.28 / 61.79 = 27.97%

* These games were bundled with the console at launch and these bundles account for a significant portion of the game's total sales.

FWIW, SMB3 was bundled with the NES for the last couple of years of its life. It was packaged as The Challenge Set.



TheBigFatJ said:
 

It's definitely not over. Halo 3 had a much stronger start, but terrible legs. Last week, SMG sold: 162,420 + 38,492 + 188,325 = 389,237 units in a single week. It's only the third week, and clearly SMG is just getting warmed up.

What about H3 in its third week: 78,465 + 4,702 + 252,596 = 335,763. Relative to SMG, it had an extremely hard dropoff. Consider that it started with much higher sales and fanfare, and three weeks in it was already selling more slowly than SMG!

And last week? Halo 3 sold: 62,409 + 1,075 + 54,417 = 111,901. Don't expect numbers this low from SMG anytime soon.

Let's compare SMG at 25 weeks to Halo 3 at 25 weeks and see how they look. If Halo 3 is still up by more than 1.5 million units, I will be extremely surprised. I expect total units sold to converge around December 2008.

SMG is a bigger experience than Halo 3. It's newer, it's fresher, and it's accessible to more people.


 I would add that while both games are iconic, one has competition and the other doesn't. Already there are lots of people are passing over Halo 3 for Orange Box or Call of Duty 4, and with another legion of shooters coming to 360 in 2008, Halo 3 will only face more competition.

 SMG's competition is what? Dewey's Adventure? The only platformer currently in SMG's league is on PS3, and there's nothing on the horizon that looks like it has a chance to dethrone SMG.



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*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

fkusumot said:
Final-Fan said:
fkusumot said:
omgwtfbbq said:
why would Sunshine be a better comparison than NSMB? DS and Wii are going to have similar user bases, both in terms of size and makeup. Gamecube has a much smaller and more focused user base. NSMB is absolutely the best game to compare galaxy with.

No. This is the trap that people fell into when trying to predict sales for SMG and used NSMB as the reference. 2D Mario is a different genre than 3D Mario. You can can compare the two and come up with lots of similarities but at root of it all they are very different games that appeal to their own distinct crowd. The comparison between the two can give you indications and you might adduce some small a priori noema that will help engender further investigation. Straight up comparison such as looking at sales for NSMB and assigning that some predictive value for SMG sales is not relevant because they are two radically different games.


I honestly can't remember the last time a poster used an English word I was totally unfamiliar with.

(W3NID) noema (noun) in Husserlian philosophy: the objective aspect of or the content within an intentional experience -- distinguished from noesis

That seems kinda ... obscurely hyperspecific for this discussion. Also, I don't understand what exactly the "intentional experience" is. Could you please elaborate on what you mean by an "a priori noema"?

On a related note, is there any specific reason that that one sentence had such an abundance of 'college words'?

 Husserl thought that the way we talked about comparisons was important and should be very specific. The intentional experience is the active one and may exist before hand, in principle, a priori. Specifying the noema keeps this in the objective vice the subjective realm. The analysis is a little like Kant's in the Critique of Judgment. So in the comparion you might find an element that is common to both SMG and NSMB is used to different ends and in an apparently not ironic sense. When you compare them their will still be tension between the modality of both uses.

Anyway, sorry for geeking out like that. All my graduate and post-graduate studies were in Philosophy, Greek Philosophy and the Early Church Fathers like Augustine up to Aquinas.

The sentence in question was what it was to very narrowly define what type of comparison could yield grist for discussion. 


I believe that you completely failed to define "intentional experience".  I suppose I could have been more clear that I was looking for a definition instead of an identification. 

A bit of Internet research tells me that "Intentional experience refers to real entities, objects that actually exist.  Frege pointed out long ago that when somebody is thinking about the moon, it is not just the idea of the moon but of an actual, intentional experience in which the moon is the appearing reference or phenomenon." 

This contrasts with what I might naturally presume the term to mean, that is, an experience one has intentionally, on purpose as opposed to involuntarily -- such as the "look and feel" of playing the two games.  Instead it seems that "intentional experience" only means something akin to a real-world reference instead of an abstract idea. 

Am I wrong?  I'm kind of dashing this off in a futile attempt to not be late for work. 

[edit:  source]



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom!