i like konnichiwa's logic, 600k.

500k

Im gonna say 350000, just because mario sold so poorly.

For this game, sales will be regulated by supply. It will sell out.
Now, how many units will Nintendo have for Japan on day one?

Well, based on SMG sales, I don't see Nintendo shipping much more than 700,000.

So, that's my guess: 700,000 - 750,000

650,000

400,000

Well SMG was a big game, but we must understand, SSBB has always been the frontrunner title for Wii. Wii's Halo 3 in a sense.

But we must consider sales of previous SB titles. SSBM sold 1.44 million in Japan. SSB sold 1.97.

1.44/4.02= 36%
1.97/5.55=35.5%

So their sale through ratings previously on the game have been pretty similar eh. Talk about consistency. Now Super Smash Bros Melee opened with 360k. Super Smash Bros opened at 218k. So the games have never had huge launches. Super Smash Bros launched when N64 had a userbase of 4 million. Super Smash Bros Melee launched when GC had a userbase of 474k. And actually increased sales by 585% with its launch.

So definetly startoffs have differed. But considering this, the hype for the game on Wii, and of course the preorder numbers at about 1-1.5 million with what Source suggest, I'm going to go with an opener of 700k. Userbase should be around 5 million by then, not to mention it should increase sales on its opener.

700k first week

My heart says 700k

My head says 350k

500k I guess

Im going with 745k in Japan. In America, 1.3 million first week.