If anything, my bet is on the accessories selling well, Move and Natal. I just do not see either of them selling metricfucktons of systems.

i agree. i am still buying move however

I don't think Natal or Move will make any difference in the 360 vs PS3 war. I think the Move will do BETTER than Natal though. I would like to give these as my reasons.

1) Sonys demographic are more likey to be older (acording to their figures) with more disposable income, and more likey to give a gimic a try.

2) People like what they know. They'll see Move, think of Wii but with PS3 graphics. That will probably go down well with people looking for a party game. Although I doubt these people will buy more than the bundled game.

3) It looks like you get more for less. To the average punter for under $99 you are getting the controller, a game AND a camera. Natal looks to be $179 for a camera and a game. It maybe a very clever camera, but your average man is still going to see 'just a camera'.

4) Finally the games. It's getting bloody close to E3 and no one has seen anything of the Natal games. In this day and age that is very worrying. If MS had something that was so amazing and really made Natal live up to the huge hype they are giving it, I'm sure we would of seen it by now. They could be waiting to drop the bomb at E3, but if they are then they are going to have quite a small launch line up of games.
Sony have already shown us Move, people have played it and Sony are promising even more unseen games at E3.
I still think this: ( http://uk.wii.ign.com/articles/107/1077008p1.html ) could be the reason we STILL have not seen any games.

Well, under the shitload of bombastic propaganda, I guess that at least for this gen, MS and Sony's only realistic goal is to stop losing ground in the motion control field and being prepared in time for it when next gen begins. Anything more could be a welcome extra, but they can't really count on it.

And yes, although I believe that Move can disturb WM+, and Natal instead Balance Board, Wii, with its installed base far larger than its two best seller add-ons and almost as large as PS3 and XB360 put together, is almost untouchable, its leadership can't be by now stolen anymore, at most its share could drop between 40 and 45% by this gen's end, but remaining the average yearly best seller until the end. And this worst case scenario only if everything for Move and Natal goes perfectly, otherwise Wii will end between 45 and 48% (very rough estimate based on how sales currently go and gently giving MS and Sony a possible some % sales increase, but to be averaged with past sales).

Anyhow they must try.

And let's not forget an effect of Move and Natal: making motion control a normal feature and not a Wii exclusive anymore.

I think they're going to bomb pretty miserably. Especially if the rumored prices are true.

Look at the Wii. The Wii was made a success solely through Nintendo's amazing software. Without Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart, it would not be where it is today. Even despite the Wii's success, third parties are completely ignoring it.

Move and Natal, on the other hand, will have nothing like Nintendo's software to drive them. Without that software, getting third parties to take either peripheral seriously will be incredibly tough. Third parties won't even support an incredibly successful motion controller, let alone devices that have yet to prove their worth. This will be especially bad for Natal, which has a weaker first party backing it up compared to Move, thus making third parties all the more important.

i think your spot on. i havn't seen anything from either that would change my mind, and i don't see any thing coming in the future or next few yr's that would change my mind.

I agree with this pretty much 100%. Neither will pose a serious threat to Wii, imo, but I could see Natal having more success than Move, which I think the general audience will very much see as a 'Wii-too', as Reggie so aptly put it.

Im quoting this, as I tend to agree, although I am adding a little extra on your history part. I can't off the top of my head, except perhaps the 6 button controller for the genesis think of a time when a peripheral was released after the initial sale of the console that really 'took off'.

WiiFit? Its sure sold well, but support... Motion Plus? seems like its sold well.. again support is lacking right now.. Look at all the lightguns that have been released in generations past, even the guncon 3 etc, PS Eye/EyeToy/Sega CD/32X

Lets look at it another way, controllers that arn't bundled right at the start of the generation don't tend to succeed, perhaps you could argue the dual shock 1, although most people *I* knew had one dual shock not multiple ones(thats me, I'm sure everyones different), until ps2 came around.  For reference the Nunchuck is included in the original bundle so thats not counted ;)

Even the Wii classic controller hasn't had too much support, I know that there is '30+ games' in prod by both companies (I believe that was the figure? either way there is support), I just see history repeating..

Either way, I look forward to the wars of which one is better once they are both released ;) and I hope I'm wrong, as I look forward to both of them hittin the market :D

edit: this is that I can remember, and I am happy to be proven wrong :D

In my opinion Natal will sell 360 hardware and renew 360 sales while Move will do nothing to increase PS3 marketshare, why you ask?

Natal is like a whole new platform if the camera gets bundled with every 360 then 360 sales could really be given a boost. Given the technology behind Natal and apparently overwhelming 3rd party exclsuive support then I could see it easily effecting Microsoft's hardware sales. Main reason Natal will sell well is the fact that software will be exclusive to Natal, I expect Natal to shift up to 10-million units come generations end and if it is bundled then it will shift a couple million 360's.

Move, why will move fail. Simple big games for Move are infact able to be played without Move. Socom for example has been praised for playability with Move but the game can still be played without it. Other software for Move might be optional to play with either control. Some exclusive software appears no more then rip offs of Nintendo existing titles. In the end Move will be another accessory or peripheral rather then the new standard controller needed to truly drive sales.

In the end Natal is being estimated at 150$ and Move at 100-120$. Honestly who is going to go pick up a Move for over a hundred bucks with little software support compared to picking up a Natal for 35-50$ more with a lot more software

I'll believe it when I see it.