I think they're going to bomb pretty miserably. Especially if the rumored prices are true.
Look at the Wii. The Wii was made a success solely through Nintendo's amazing software. Without Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart, it would not be where it is today. Even despite the Wii's success, third parties are completely ignoring it.
Move and Natal, on the other hand, will have nothing like Nintendo's software to drive them. Without that software, getting third parties to take either peripheral seriously will be incredibly tough. Third parties won't even support an incredibly successful motion controller, let alone devices that have yet to prove their worth. This will be especially bad for Natal, which has a weaker first party backing it up compared to Move, thus making third parties all the more important.
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