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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will Microsoft get out of the console race if Natal is not successful?

BBH said:
All three brands are extremely secure.

- This is the first time Sony has 'failed' if you like in 4 attempts. A heavy financial loss, but with many other successes. It's also a big part of Sony's business activity - The aren't going anywhere.

- Microsoft don't really care about Xbox financials tbh. They are in the market to expand their presence and to keep Sony/Nintendo down. The Xbox division is such a small part of their business, it makes up their pocket change.

- Ninty...duh.

4????

 

PS1 - PS2 - PS3

 

errr....

 

or do you include PSP... which is also a failure (albeit due to piracy).



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Hephaestos said:
BBH said:
All three brands are extremely secure.

- This is the first time Sony has 'failed' if you like in 4 attempts. A heavy financial loss, but with many other successes. It's also a big part of Sony's business activity - The aren't going anywhere.

- Microsoft don't really care about Xbox financials tbh. They are in the market to expand their presence and to keep Sony/Nintendo down. The Xbox division is such a small part of their business, it makes up their pocket change.

- Ninty...duh.

4????

 

PS1 - PS2 - PS3

 

errr....

 

or do you include PSP... which is also a failure (albeit due to piracy).

Yea, I included PSP. It's sold near 60M and made profit. Not an amazing success but I wouldn't say a failure.



A203D said:

 

i think launching a new console is absolute sucicide especailly if natal fails. theres no advantage in that, the components and the performance would have to exceed the ps3 for it to compete with sony. which would make it more expensive to manufacture, and more expensive to consumers. evidently the sales of the wii show that the consumer wants the best bargan, and the PS3 which is the most expensive has sold the least of the 3 consoles. most importantly its very expensive and time consuming to develop HD games, GTA4 costing $100 million, and GTA5 i think is the longest game in development. i think theres no way any developer would think about supporting a new console in the next 4 years minimum.

 


You've got it all wrong. It would be cheaper to make a console faster than the PS3 than it is to make the PS3 today. The supporting technologies are significantly better than they were when the PS3 was released.

The PS3 has a 2* BRD. A new console could have a 6 or 8 speed drive. This means they wouldn't need a HDD which is immediately a $30 cost savings even accounting for a more expensive drive initially.

The PS3 has 512MB of ram with a total of ~50GB/s memory bandwidth. A console releasing today could use GDDR5 2Gbit chips and with only double the memory and only a single 128bit bus they could have double the memory bandwidth using 4 7Gbps 32bit GDDR5 modules. This is still cheaper than the PS3s memory subsystem.

The PS3 has very old technology in the RSX GPU whereas a modern console could jump straight onto a low power Redwood DX11 GPU which is only 110mm^2 with more than double the transistors and is least 50% more efficient in operation with more than double the shader floating point performance. This is supported by benchmarks showing that the GPU which makes the basis of the RSX in the PS3 has not stood up to the test of time. Even more significantly modern GPUs are a lot faster in post processing operations which make up a large proportion of rendering time in modern games.

etc.

 



Tease.

Nope.



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ZenfoldorVGI said:

You can't go by legacy figures when you are determining a company's health. You have to look at the company as a whole, not one single division, and you have to figure out the goals of the companies, and the RELATIVE net loss they are taking.

I said what I've said, because I believe MS is a much healthier company than Sony, atm. They hold the rights to the perpetually successful windows OS, and can apparently afford to blow 10 billion dollars on destroying Playstation dominance on home consoles. However, it is unknown if Sony would be willining to take even a 10th of that loss. Sony is in the console gaming business to turn a profit, MS was initially in the console gaming business to disrupt competition to its Windows OS.

Thus, imo, Sony is more questionable than MS, since it has taken some serious losses this gen, while the Xbox brand is on an upswing in popularity, Playstation gaming has certainly declined drastically. I have a hard time believing Sony boardmembers would be willing to take the chance on a new console for many more years, especially if their other sectors are underperforming.

I do wonder what would happen if next generation, Sony released an underpowered console? Would the fans of the high end graphics on the PS3 this gen jump ship, or would they simply change their argument? It certainly didn't seem to matter to them when the PS2 had significantly less graphical power than that of the other consoles last generation.

No matter how you look at it, this generation has been a loss by Sony and a huge boon to Microsoft and Nintendo. We tend to get mixed up in the trees and forget the forest. No one in their right mind would have predicted how consoles sales this generation would have came out, 6 years ago, and saying Nintendo would have the first place console would have been laughable.

 

First of all, Microsoft's "plan" didn't work. Sony's fall from grace in the video game market is due solely to their own tremendous gaffe's, the most noticeable one being that they released a ridiculously over-engineered $600 dollar console. It was nothing that Microsoft did. Even then, the margin by which they have outsold the PS3 is negligable, especially when you consider that the difference in sales right now is virtually equal to the amount of 360s that had been sold when then the PS3 was launched. That being said, both platforms have moved about the same amount of hardware in the same period of time even though the PS3 has been more expensive with a smaller game library for most of its lifespan.

The Xbox 360 may have sold more than the OG Xbox, but that's not really saying much when the latter only sold 24 million units last gen. MS really had nowhere to go but up. They'd have had to make some mistakes on par with 90's Sega to actually sell less. MS is in the exact same position it was in last generation, which is a distant second place with an insignificant lead over the third place competitor. If the 360 were really doing so great, then why is it that the only system it's managed to outsell all generation is the PS3? Sure, it looks good as long as you ignore the face that it's taking the exact same beating from Nintendo and just focus on the last-place console.

As far as Natal goes, there are going to be a lot of dissapointed people on these forums. First of all, no controller add-on that was released several years into a generation/console's lifespan has ever had any kind of significant effect, and Natal wont' be any different. First of all, it won't have a 100% attach rate, which means that third parties aren't going to pay much attention to it, which goes without saying considering that nearly all of the Wii's most popular games are in-house titles, and MS's in-house talent is really nothing to write home about. Another thing that people don't seem to get is that the reason for Nintendo's success this gen with the DS stylus & touchscreen and the Wii's Wiimote & Nunchuk is software that appeals to everyone, something MS has yet to achieve. Every title like this that MS has attempted(Lips, Scene It, Kameo, Viva Pinata, Banjo & Kazooie) has been an unimitigated failure on all fronts. Very few people will care about it because the demographic that it's meant to target has already been snatched up by the Wii and its more appealing software, and Natal will just be soon as a weaker version of the Wiimote. Really, had Nintendo released the Wiimote as an add-on for the Gamecube in 2004, would it have made any kind of a difference?

While Natal's imminent failure may not cause MS to exit the home console business, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it did in fact tarnish the Xbox brand.

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

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ZenfoldorVGI said:
TheNoobHolocaust said:
FKNetwork said:
ZenfoldorVGI said:

...so no, no they won't. In fact, I think out of the big 3, Xbox is the second most secure brand.

^This

Sony is the one poeple shold be more concerned about, their future is far from safe right now....

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y122/viperempire/chartimg4.jpg

Courtesy of Naum's signature

This is a chart of each companies gaming division only. Sony still has alot of PS1 and PS2 royalties but is losing a lot of it, Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and Microsoft is in the red $9 Billion. Regardless I don't see anybody leaving anytime soon.

You can't go by legacy figures when you are determining a company's health. You have to look at the company as a whole, not one single division, and you have to figure out the goals of the companies, and the RELATIVE net loss they are taking.

I said what I've said, because I believe MS is a much healthier company than Sony, atm. They hold the rights to the perpetually successful windows OS, and can apparently afford to blow 10 billion dollars on destroying Playstation dominance on home consoles. However, it is unknown if Sony would be willining to take even a 10th of that loss. Sony is in the console gaming business to turn a profit, MS was initially in the console gaming business to disrupt competition to its Windows OS.

Thus, imo, Sony is more questionable than MS, since it has taken some serious losses this gen, while the Xbox brand is on an upswing in popularity, Playstation gaming has certainly declined drastically. I have a hard time believing Sony boardmembers would be willing to take the chance on a new console for many more years, especially if their other sectors are underperforming.

I do wonder what would happen if next generation, Sony released an underpowered console? Would the fans of the high end graphics on the PS3 this gen jump ship, or would they simply change their argument? It certainly didn't seem to matter to them when the PS2 had significantly less graphical power than that of the other consoles last generation.

No matter how you look at it, this generation has been a loss by Sony and a huge boon to Microsoft and Nintendo. We tend to get mixed up in the trees and forget the forest. No one in their right mind would have predicted how consoles sales this generation would have came out, 6 years ago, and saying Nintendo would have the first place console would have been laughable.

Your right, Microsoft is a healthier company overall, and that could be Xbox's downfall, I'm not saying it will happen anytime soon but Microsoft doesn't need Xbox, and I think they are a little half-hearted about it, I believe that down the line Microsoft will say they don't want to lose 9 billion+ dollars on a division they they haven't turned profit on. I'm not saying that they will just all of a sudden axe the Xbox but maybe at the end of the 8th Generation they will decide it is too much of a hassle to be losing billions on and just won't enter the 9th Generaion of Video Games.

With Sony, they need their gaming division, they don't have much going for them. I don't think Sony is depending on the gaming division for profit, but this is the one thing they have going for them. They are losing the HDTV wars, Vaio is losing money, Samsung has now decided to come out with Blu-Ray players too, But Playstation is what makes Sony a household name, Microsoft has Windows, Sony has Playstation. I don't think they will just end it. IMO



Lord N said:

 

First of all, Microsoft's "plan" didn't work. Sony's fall from grace in the video game market is due solely to their own tremendous gaffe's, the most noticeable one being that they released a ridiculously over-engineered $600 dollar console. It was nothing that Microsoft did. Even then, the margin by which they have outsold the PS3 is negligable, especially when you consider that the difference in sales right now is virtually equal to the amount of 360s that had been sold when then the PS3 was launched. That being said, both platforms have moved about the same amount of hardware in the same period of time even though the PS3 has been more expensive with a smaller game library for most of its lifespan.

The Xbox 360 may have sold more than the OG Xbox, but that's not really saying much when the latter only sold 24 million units last gen. MS really had nowhere to go but up. They'd have had to make some mistakes on par with 90's Sega to actually sell less. MS is in the exact same position it was in last generation, which is a distant second place with an insignificant lead over the third place competitor. If the 360 were really doing so great, then why is it that the only system it's managed to outsell all generation is the PS3? Sure, it looks good as long as you ignore the face that it's taking the exact same beating from Nintendo and just focus on the last-place console.

As far as Natal goes, there are going to be a lot of dissapointed people on these forums. First of all, no controller add-on that was released several years into a generation/console's lifespan has ever had any kind of significant effect, and Natal wont' be any different. First of all, it won't have a 100% attach rate, which means that third parties aren't going to pay much attention to it, which goes without saying considering that nearly all of the Wii's most popular games are in-house titles, and MS's in-house talent is really nothing to write home about. Another thing that people don't seem to get is that the reason for Nintendo's success this gen with the DS stylus & touchscreen and the Wii's Wiimote & Nunchuk is software that appeals to everyone, something MS has yet to achieve. Every title like this that MS has attempted(Lips, Scene It, Kameo, Viva Pinata, Banjo & Kazooie) has been an unimitigated failure on all fronts. Very few people will care about it because the demographic that it's meant to target has already been snatched up by the Wii and its more appealing software, and Natal will just be soon as a weaker version of the Wiimote. Really, had Nintendo released the Wiimote as an add-on for the Gamecube in 2004, would it have made any kind of a difference?

While Natal's imminent failure may not cause MS to exit the home console business, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it did in fact tarnish the Xbox brand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please don't tell me you actually believe a word of what you just wrote, what a load of bias rubbish....

And regarding natal, we will all see how well it has done when its released later in the year, hope your ready to eat humble pie, and as I said before, it is Sony that are in a dodgy position right now, if anyone was to leave gaming it would be Sony, PSP a failure, the PS3 losing the company so much money and STILL lagging in 3rd place, Sony losing more money in its latest reports, they can't go on like this much longer and people seriously think they could afford to make a PS4 lol.



FKNetwork said:

Please don't tell me you actually believe a word of what you just wrote, what a load of bias rubbish....

And regarding natal, we will all see how well it has done when its released later in the year, hope your ready to eat humble pie, and as I said before, it is Sony that are in a dodgy position right now, if anyone was to leave gaming it would be Sony, PSP a failure, the PS3 losing the company so much money and STILL lagging in 3rd place, Sony losing more money in its latest reports, they can't go on like this much longer and people seriously think they could afford to make a PS4 lol.

 

Well it sure is nice to see how you addressed all of my points and gave a decent rebuttal for each one.

Tell me, when is the last time a company released an add-on in the middle of the generation and it had any effect whatsoever? The Powerglove? The Sega CD? The 32X? The Eyetoy?

Like I said, Natal is trying to aim at a market that's already been claimed by the Wii. The Wii has been successful with its controller interface because it has loads of software that appeals to all demographics. The 360 doesn't have this. Its software appeals mostly to core and hardcore gamers. You add in the fact that there will be over 40 million 360 owners who won't have Natal, devs are going to focus on them because that's the 360's core fanbase whom they know will buy the tried and true titles, because that's where the money is. To seriously focus on developing for Natal would be too risky as it won't have a 100% attach rate, nor will it be able to compete with the established Wii(or DS) which blows it away in software.



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

How can Microsoft enter a market with a device expected to compete against the wiimote and balance boards? Everybody knows mircosoft is run by overweight behemoths that use wiifit at night after bashing them all day!



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Squilliam said:

The PS3 has a 2* BRD. A new console could have a 6 or 8 speed drive. This means they wouldn't need a HDD which is immediately a $30 cost savings even accounting for a more expensive drive initially.

A future console without a hard disk drive? I see no way this could happen, disk caching is just one of dozens of reasons for having lots of storage space. I'm sure even Microsoft will learn from its mistakes and will never again release a console like the 360 Arcade.