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Forums - Sales - PS3 to surpass X360 in HW sales by March 2011

jneul on 14 May 2010

OP: I think it will do it sooner, I don't think natal will have a huge as impact as MS want, they should have released the new version with a new console, GT5 is going to sell millions of PS3's:):)



it's the future of handheld

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The official Vita thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=130023&page=1

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Seece on 14 May 2010
nightsurge said:
Gilgamesh said:
nightsurge said:
Just so you know, PSP's estimate for last year was 15 million, too, before they adjusted it down 5 million to just 10 million after the Go flopped. They are simply way overestimating what affect PS Move will have. Also, MS doesn't do estimates, but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year.

Also, I believe this is the first time a PS3 estimate has not had to be adjusted down in order to be met so you shouldn't assume it will be correct based on one good year.

"but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year."

The most the X360 has sold in a year was 11 million which was in 2008, your saying it's going to sell 1 - 2 million more then that?!

Yes, it will.  I mean, it reached 11 million with JUST a price cut.  It's still $300 so it has plenty of room to cut price and boost sales quite a bit.  Once it reaches mass market price for the main selling SKU it will see huge sales.  This time we are also getting the redesign which is as confirmed as it can be before an official E3 confirmation by MS.  If you honestly believe there won't be a 360 redesign after the leaked info you are nuts.  All that combined with 3 of the biggest games on 360 will move plenty of consoles.  Not every Halo fan has a 360, we all know this.  In fact, I can think of tons of friends of mine that love halo but don't have a 360 or any console yet for that matter.  Halo is like a universal game everyone with a 360 plays when friends are over.  Halo: Reach, being a new storyline for halo, will move plenty of consoles to Halo holdouts that didn't want to join in mid/late into the main trilogy storyline.

Also, care to comment on any of the other stuff?  Like how the PS3 estimates were always adjusted way down in the past and the only reason it made the 2009 estimate was from a $100 cut and slim redesign?  Do you expect it to cut another $100 and do another redesign?  Because other than that there is no chance for it to reach those numbers.  Sony is way overestimating the effect of Move and GT5.  It's normal practice for them with past PS3 and PSP estimates.  That is all.

That whole post screams irony, he expects the PS3 to do an extra 2 million this year like Sony has projected, nothing wrong with that. Sony could reach it or fall short, but then he lambasts you for thinking the same, despite the 360 having more going for it this xmas. He's forgetting the 360 is capable of decent sales too.



 

numonex on 14 May 2010

360 console sales will equal or slightly outsell the PS3 console sales in 2010. Halo: Reach in September, Natal launch in October, Price Cut + 360 Slim- impending and Fable 3 in November.

Possible scenario in America: $100 XBox 360 arcade. $200 for Elite. XBox 360 Arcade + Natal for $150



Solid_Snake4RD on 14 May 2010
nightsurge said:
Just so you know, PSP's estimate for last year was 15 million, too, before they adjusted it down 5 million to just 10 million after the Go flopped. They are simply way overestimating what affect PS Move will have. Also, MS doesn't do estimates, but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year.

Also, I believe this is the first time a PS3 estimate has not had to be adjusted down in order to be met so you shouldn't assume it will be correct based on one good year.

why the hell are you comparing PSP with PS3?

 

PSP is dying and PS3 is just lighting up.Also PSP is already at a low price and not selling PS3 is at a high price and outselling 360.

 

Also NATAL is as big a gamble as PS Move so please don't overestimate NATAL's effect also.

 

Gears isn't coming before March 2011,we aren't going by MS's FY but general.

 

Also Fable will be succesfull but not sell any console.Halo too,it would sell more than Fable but not many more as HALO fanbase is already on 360,HALO's fanbase is around 8m.HALO 3 sold 10m,the average fanbase is already on 360 and it could push 360 to some more people but not much.

 

SLIM will give a bit boost but not the price cut as its already $199.maybe in the forst week but not much after that.

Plus almost all xbox franchises have come to 360 so nothing popular left to give a boost.

 

On PS3 which is still at a high price and outselling 360.If 360 had a price cut and impact,PS3 will surely see a $50 price which will be much much more effective than 360 price cut cause PS3 is still a little above mass market price.

 

Plus many former PS3 franchises are too come on PS3 like Twisted metal,Last guardian,many more at E3

 

Plus 33% OF AMERICANS who are gonna buy GT5 don't have PS3 are are gonna buy for GT5.

 

Plus exclusive like FF13 VERSUS will also push systems,plus upcoming exclusive like AGENT.



numonex on 14 May 2010

American market is the key and 360 console sales will be boosted in the last 4 months of the year. European and Japan sales could pick up with Natal + 360 price cuts.

Do not expect PS3 price cut in 2010. Those Sony Gaming Division losses were huge in that latest Financial report- $891 million. Gran Turismo 5- release in November? Playstation Move which may not be half as successful as Natal. PS3 game bundles.



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ImJustBayuum on 14 May 2010
Solid_Snake4RD said:
nightsurge said:
Just so you know, PSP's estimate for last year was 15 million, too, before they adjusted it down 5 million to just 10 million after the Go flopped. They are simply way overestimating what affect PS Move will have. Also, MS doesn't do estimates, but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year.

Also, I believe this is the first time a PS3 estimate has not had to be adjusted down in order to be met so you shouldn't assume it will be correct based on one good year.

why the hell are you comparing PSP with PS3?

 

PSP is dying and PS3 is just lighting up.Also PSP is already at a low price and not selling PS3 is at a high price and outselling 360.

 

Also NATAL is as big a gamble as PS Move so please don't overestimate NATAL's effect also.

 

Gears isn't coming before March 2011,we aren't going by MS's FY but general.

 

Also Fable will be succesfull but not sell any console.Halo too,it would sell more than Fable but not many more as HALO fanbase is already on 360,HALO's fanbase is around 8m.HALO 3 sold 10m,the average fanbase is already on 360 and it could push 360 to some more people but not much.

 

SLIM will give a bit boost but not the price cut as its already $199.maybe in the forst week but not much after that.

Plus almost all xbox franchises have come to 360 so nothing popular left to give a boost.

 

On PS3 which is still at a high price and outselling 360.If 360 had a price cut and impact,PS3 will surely see a $50 price which will be much much more effective than 360 price cut cause PS3 is still a little above mass market price.

 

Plus many former PS3 franchises are too come on PS3 like Twisted metal,Last guardian,many more at E3

 

Plus 33% OF AMERICANS who are gonna buy GT5 don't have PS3 are are gonna buy for GT5.

 

Plus exclusive like FF13 VERSUS will also push systems,plus upcoming exclusive like AGENT.

Im blinded by this wall of crap. Good to know you've been to the future



Seece on 14 May 2010
ImJustBayuum said:
Solid_Snake4RD said:
nightsurge said:
Just so you know, PSP's estimate for last year was 15 million, too, before they adjusted it down 5 million to just 10 million after the Go flopped. They are simply way overestimating what affect PS Move will have. Also, MS doesn't do estimates, but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year.

Also, I believe this is the first time a PS3 estimate has not had to be adjusted down in order to be met so you shouldn't assume it will be correct based on one good year.

why the hell are you comparing PSP with PS3?
He isn't comparing, he's making an example of how Sony can overtrack, and how they've overtracked PS3 in the past and adjusted figures.

 

PSP is dying and PS3 is just lighting up.Also PSP is already at a low price and not selling PS3 is at a high price and outselling 360.
irrelevent to the discussion

 

Also NATAL is as big a gamble as PS Move so please don't overestimate NATAL's effect also.
Natal is a BIGGER gamble than move

 

Gears isn't coming before March 2011,we aren't going by MS's FY but general.
LOL, why? because it suits your argument. If Microsoft forecast 14 million 360's for their fiscal year, then yes, Gears SHOULD be taken into consideration, their fiscal year doesn't end until june.

 

Also Fable will be succesfull but not sell any console.Halo too,it would sell more than Fable but not many more as HALO fanbase is already on 360,HALO's fanbase is around 8m.HALO 3 sold 10m,the average fanbase is already on 360 and it could push 360 to some more people but not much.

Agreeed

SLIM will give a bit boost but not the price cut as its already $199.maybe in the forst week but not much after that.
Don't underestimate a $199/$149 slim 360 natal bundle on black friday in America.

Plus almost all xbox franchises have come to 360 so nothing popular left to give a boost.
Agreed

 

On PS3 which is still at a high price and outselling 360.If 360 had a price cut and impact,PS3 will surely see a $50 price which will be much much more effective than 360 price cut cause PS3 is still a little above mass market price.

As much as you'd like to think, it's a rare occurence MS or Sony react to competitors price drops.

Plus many former PS3 franchises are too come on PS3 like Twisted metal,Last guardian,many more at E3

Twsited metal, last guardian will do jack in terms of HW boost

Plus 33% OF AMERICANS who are gonna buy GT5 don't have PS3 are are gonna buy for GT5.

Rubbish.

Plus exclusive like FF13 VERSUS will also push systems,plus upcoming exclusive like AGENT.

So you say 360 has nothing coming out to boost it's sales, yet AGENT will? a new IP? Are you saying the 360 is going to have no new IP's this gen? you also claim the halo, gears ect userbase is already on the 360, well so is the FF userbase on PS3 ...

Im blinded by this wall of crap. Good to know you've been to the future

I'll try and sooth it with the green



 

Solid_Snake4RD on 14 May 2010
Seece said:
ImJustBayuum said:
Solid_Snake4RD said:
nightsurge said:
Just so you know, PSP's estimate for last year was 15 million, too, before they adjusted it down 5 million to just 10 million after the Go flopped. They are simply way overestimating what affect PS Move will have. Also, MS doesn't do estimates, but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year.

Also, I believe this is the first time a PS3 estimate has not had to be adjusted down in order to be met so you shouldn't assume it will be correct based on one good year.

why the hell are you comparing PSP with PS3?
He isn't comparing, he's making an example of how Sony can overtrack, and how they've overtracked PS3 in the past and adjusted figures.

Yeah and i'm saying how PSP overtrack happened but PS3 is a growwing console so it isdifficult to overtrack it

 

PSP is dying and PS3 is just lighting up.Also PSP is already at a low price and not selling PS3 is at a high price and outselling 360.
irrelevent to the discussion

just giving the cause why PSP could be overtracked

 

Also NATAL is as big a gamble as PS Move so please don't overestimate NATAL's effect also.
Natal is a BIGGER gamble than move

 

Gears isn't coming before March 2011,we aren't going by MS's FY but general.
LOL, why? because it suits your argument. If Microsoft forecast 14 million 360's for their fiscal year, then yes, Gears SHOULD be taken into consideration, their fiscal year doesn't end until june.

fThe OP has made a prediction ofr March 2011 not MS's FY WHICH INCLUDES gEARS April launch

 

 

Also Fable will be succesfull but not sell any console.Halo too,it would sell more than Fable but not many more as HALO fanbase is already on 360,HALO's fanbase is around 8m.HALO 3 sold 10m,the average fanbase is already on 360 and it could push 360 to some more people but not much.

Agreeed

SLIM will give a bit boost but not the price cut as its already $199.maybe in the forst week but not much after that.
Don't underestimate a $199/$149 slim 360 natal bundle on black friday in America.

I am not ,eveybody lowers price for black friday.PS3 will be at a lower price too.

And $200 PSmove bundle only for Black friday is possible too to compete with $149 NATAL BUNDLE

Plus almost all xbox franchises have come to 360 so nothing popular left to give a boost.
Agreed

 

On PS3 which is still at a high price and outselling 360.If 360 had a price cut and impact,PS3 will surely see a $50 price which will be much much more effective than 360 price cut cause PS3 is still a little above mass market price.

As much as you'd like to think, it's a rare occurence MS or Sony react to competitors price drops.

MS did have walmart price cuts last year to stop SLIM MOMENTUM.Plus Sony didn't previosly react as it wouldn't have made much difference and the fact that they were already making loss.Now PS3 could price cut with still profiting.

 

Plus many former PS3 franchises are too come on PS3 like Twisted metal,Last guardian,many more at E3

Twsited metal, last guardian will do jack in terms of HW boost

Twisted metal could do alot if marketed right for the casuals

Plus 33% OF AMERICANS who are gonna buy GT5 don't have PS3 are are gonna buy for GT5.

Rubbish.

recent survey not my opinion.even if 10 percent bought it would be alot near a million looking at previous GT US sales

 

Plus exclusive like FF13 VERSUS will also push systems,plus upcoming exclusive like AGENT.

So you say 360 has nothing coming out to boost it's sales, yet AGENT will? a new IP? Are you saying the 360 is going to have no new IP's this gen? you also claim the halo, gears ect userbase is already on the 360, well so is the FF userbase on PS3 ...

 

Nothing significant and all franshises that could provide major boost have already come.

 

Just saying that current gap of 4.5 will be covered

Im blinded by this wall of crap. Good to know you've been to the future

I'll try and sooth it with the green

mine with red



superchunk on 14 May 2010

No, but close.

LeoJ is right, you're using Shipped figures so, you should stick to them.

~5m difference as of March 2010.

PS360 will probably get $30 (MAX) price reductions this year in fall in preparation for the launches of Move/Natal.

Natal and Move both won't push hardware as they will negate the actual price drops and will make the total purchase price of each respective system significantly more than a Wii+WiiSports+WSR+M+ bundle that will also be reduced in price to match PS360's above. Basically the value of the Wii bundled will be FAR greater to the mass market than simply an HD motion PS360 that has a much smaller library for that target audience.

So, with those things under consideration and that the market is overall in its declining years...

360 will sell 8.5-10m. Also consider no big games launching that are not already on console in some form.

PS3 will be downgraded to probably barely meed 2009 sales, so, 11.5-13.5m. Only GT5 is a possible big system seller, but with many other racing games out already and a prelude version, it won't be a game changer.

Wii will be at $179 before this year is over with its current awesome bundle to combat the other controllers. I'd expect 16-18m, it just might meet expectations, but likely will fall short as all games launching are sequels and already have a fan base on the console.

So, back to the question at hand, will PS3 pass 360 by March 2011? Probably not but it will be close.

I'd expect a final tally of around:

88m for Wii
49m for 360
48m for PS3

It will be close, even with these conservative numbers. PS3 could definitely do it; but I'm betting against it.

But, it will definitely happen in 2011 unless Natal is a massive success.



Solid_Snake4RD on 14 May 2010
ImJustBayuum said:
Solid_Snake4RD said:
nightsurge said:
Just so you know, PSP's estimate for last year was 15 million, too, before they adjusted it down 5 million to just 10 million after the Go flopped. They are simply way overestimating what affect PS Move will have. Also, MS doesn't do estimates, but I expect they are set to sell at least 12-13 million if not more thanks to Slim + Price Cut + Natal + Halo + Gears + Fable all coming in the next fiscal year.

Also, I believe this is the first time a PS3 estimate has not had to be adjusted down in order to be met so you shouldn't assume it will be correct based on one good year.

why the hell are you comparing PSP with PS3?

 

PSP is dying and PS3 is just lighting up.Also PSP is already at a low price and not selling PS3 is at a high price and outselling 360.

 

Also NATAL is as big a gamble as PS Move so please don't overestimate NATAL's effect also.

 

Gears isn't coming before March 2011,we aren't going by MS's FY but general.

 

Also Fable will be succesfull but not sell any console.Halo too,it would sell more than Fable but not many more as HALO fanbase is already on 360,HALO's fanbase is around 8m.HALO 3 sold 10m,the average fanbase is already on 360 and it could push 360 to some more people but not much.

 

SLIM will give a bit boost but not the price cut as its already $199.maybe in the forst week but not much after that.

Plus almost all xbox franchises have come to 360 so nothing popular left to give a boost.

 

On PS3 which is still at a high price and outselling 360.If 360 had a price cut and impact,PS3 will surely see a $50 price which will be much much more effective than 360 price cut cause PS3 is still a little above mass market price.

 

Plus many former PS3 franchises are too come on PS3 like Twisted metal,Last guardian,many more at E3

 

Plus 33% OF AMERICANS who are gonna buy GT5 don't have PS3 are are gonna buy for GT5.

 

Plus exclusive like FF13 VERSUS will also push systems,plus upcoming exclusive like AGENT.

Im blinded by this wall of crap. Good to know you've been to the future

wow good comment,i can read your one line crap not blinded