PS3 to surpass X360 in HW sales by March 2011

[superchunk]

No, but close.

LeoJ is right, you're using Shipped figures so, you should stick to them.

~5m difference as of March 2010.

PS360 will probably get $30 (MAX) price reductions this year in fall in preparation for the launches of Move/Natal.

Natal and Move both won't push hardware as they will negate the actual price drops and will make the total purchase price of each respective system significantly more than a Wii+WiiSports+WSR+M+ bundle that will also be reduced in price to match PS360's above. Basically the value of the Wii bundled will be FAR greater to the mass market than simply an HD motion PS360 that has a much smaller library for that target audience.

So, with those things under consideration and that the market is overall in its declining years...

360 will sell 8.5-10m. Also consider no big games launching that are not already on console in some form.

PS3 will be downgraded to probably barely meed 2009 sales, so, 11.5-13.5m. Only GT5 is a possible big system seller, but with many other racing games out already and a prelude version, it won't be a game changer.

Wii will be at $179 before this year is over with its current awesome bundle to combat the other controllers. I'd expect 16-18m, it just might meet expectations, but likely will fall short as all games launching are sequels and already have a fan base on the console.

So, back to the question at hand, will PS3 pass 360 by March 2011? Probably not but it will be close.

I'd expect a final tally of around:

88m for Wii
49m for 360
48m for PS3

It will be close, even with these conservative numbers. PS3 could definitely do it; but I'm betting against it.

But, it will definitely happen in 2011 unless Natal is a massive success.