The same reason why i think R3, Killzone 3, LBP2, inFamous 2 and GT5 will be systemsellers. They're good games that people want to play. The fans of those games most likely already own a PS3 due to all the exposure they've had in the media. Just as fans of gears of war and Halo already own a 360. But there's always people that can't afford the initial pricetags of the consoles, or dont see the point in spending money on two HD consoles with a similar library. And the fact that the consoles have been out for 4-5 years means that the launch 10-12 year olds are now in an age where they can purchase the consoles with their own money etc. These are the people that makes games systemsellers this far into the generation. Not the initial fanbase that purchase the console off of brand loyalty or previous gen catalogues.

And the marketing has everything to do with the success of a console aswell. And microsoft is very good at marketing their console. The Natal hype itself is bound to make people pick up a 360 even though they know very little about the prodcut itself.

So to say that the 360 got nothing going for it and that Gears 3 is nothing compared to Agent is not a good assessment imo.

The argument in the thread would be alright if it weren't for the fact that sony always overestimate their shiment numbers and adjust them down later

^ and again. That dosent mean i dont think the PS3 will go up YoY or that MS will beat the projected 15m shipped that Sony has stated. Im just saying that you cant trash talk one product and hype the other, when at this stage both have about the same amount of things going for them.

A Natal success could swing the 360 to Wii levels, or good future exclusives could put the PS3 miles ahead of the 360. But atm, both have shown about as much as the other one has. And like i said, to tag Gears and Halo as insignificant, while hyping MNR and Agent as being games that will carry the PS3 to success, is just flawed.

Their PS3 projections for FY ending in 2009 and 2010 were spot on and they actually beat their PS2 projection this year. PSP's shortfall last year was obviously because of the enormous flop that the Go was.

Thank you, that's exactly my point! They make their hardware predictions based off things going right. Nintendo, however make their predictions based off the assumption that all their products will flop. So that 15 million prediction is based off move instantly killing the Wii and causing a significant proportion of Wii users to 'upgrade' It is not based off a price cut in the works

Who knows, Microsoft may release something that knocks Sony away or vise verse. Since my 360 failed me, I've hoped Sony would own Microsoft but i don't know if it will happen.

1. This thread is based upon the assumption that Xbox 360 sales will continue to decline whilst Sony PS3 sales will meet their shipment targets. Thats an assumption based off of an assumption and only one of those has to be wrong before the whole prediction falls off the rails. It is inconceiveable that Microsoft will do nothing this year in regards to the price of the Xbox 360 and that leaves out whatever impact Natal, Reach etc have on overall sales. The release of a 10M + selling franchise always impacts the fortunes of a console.

2. Its funny that the PS3 was supposed to outsell the Xbox 360 in 2007 then 2008 then 2009 then 2010 then 2011. So now people are just as confident as they were back in 2006. Are people really going to start being a little more conservative with these predicitons? Im sorry to say it but this is one area where the term delaystation fits like a glove. The date where the PS3 is going to magically surpass the usurper Xbox 360 is always being pushed backwards. Im not all all confident that its not going to be delaystationed back to late 2011 or even 2012.

Well, that's what you base it off... but seriously, they probably have a very good reason why. Hey, look at last year FY, they actually overshot their prediction. They weren't expecting their revision to explode, they knew it would do well but not this well. The way I interpret it, Sony is planning another price drop to the 250$ mark. This makes sense according to the golden price concept being the price where the most consoles sell. Wii peaked at 250, FY2009, 360 peaked in the 200$-250$ year, ps3 is planning 15m, looks like a price cut inbound.

This.

PS3 to overtake the 360 in: 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011?, etc.

So basically Natal and a possible Price Cut won't be able to match Sony's Move and possible pack in?

Eh, I say wait for the holidays to be over before saying March 2011. Though I think the PS3 will pass the 360 worldwide *eventually*, but never in the US.