John its not going to make it to 30 MILLION by 08's end.

I trust insomniac.

30 million by May is what I think you mean.

More casual games sure, but that doesn't mean there will be fewer 'core' games.  Just fewer as a percentage of the total market.  Besides for everyone one MSG4, they same $ and manpower could make 10 'casual' games so a flood of them doesn't represent a huge divergence from 'core' games.  Although I hope we see much better quality games than so far.

Also GTA is very appealing to the casual market.That's how it got 15m in sales!  GTA on Wii would be huge!! Ever play Godfather on the WII?  Great fun with the Wii controls and that's nothing compared to GTA.

 If Nintendo would produce 2 million a month it would only mean 44 million total by the end of 2008. 20 million this year + 12*2 million in 2008. Actually they would have to produce 3.3 million a month to reach 60 million. Which i think is possible if they increase production very rapidly. But I think 50 million is more likely total and even that would require 2.5 million sales a month.

You are quite the speeker (writer) and I hope you are right.

Since I bought my Wii, 4 other in my family as either bought or going to buy a Wii system. Mostly for the Wii games and especielly Wii fit. But most of them loved Galaxy and Guitar Hero III as well.

So I think it will continue that way and spread like wild fire over the population.
But Wii selling more then the entire PS-family, no effing way.

When PS1, N64 and Saturn games came out, people cried about the death of 2D gaming. How 3D gaming would be too complicated, or be too simplified to be difficult.

Gamers evolved, grew and survived to play more games. Many old franchises couldn't handle the switch to 3D and died off. But many new 3D franchises sprung up and replaced the fallen. So gamers dealt with it and enjoyed the fruits of 3D gaming.

Now with the Wii, people cry about how motion controls will kill gaming for "real" gamers. How every game will devolve into Wii Sports. How games will be "too easy" or "too tiring" to bring gamers.

Gamers will evolve to any game presented to them. Yes, many half-baked franchises will die off this gen (or next gen when everyone goes motion sensor.) But many more will replace them. And hardcore gamers will still exist.

Is your grandmom going to want to drive around with a prostitute in her car?  Want to shoot people, want to play extremly long RPGs?  NO.  Nintendo is aiming to have everyone play the Wii, not just you but your bros + sis, plus mom, dad, aunt, uncle, grandparents, etc.  Many "hardcore" games won't appeal to them, and games like GTA they PROBABLY won't like.  Also, how are games like that going to fare on a system that has (in terms of percent) a lot of casual games.  Developers WILL be scared about games selling on a "casual" platform.

 I don't really know why I'm arguing on this.  The Wii won't sell forty million in a year.  It won't get to 500 million life time. 

I think he was saying 45 million total by end of 2008. I could be wrong. I definately was referring to totals.

GTA is one of my 12 y/o daughter's favorite games. One of my dad's too.  Beside, Take-Two already put Manhunt 2 on Wii with good results (outselling the PS2 version).  I doubt they'd be afraid to try a sure-fire hit like GTA.  Watch, next PSP edition will also be on Wii (but hopefully with improved graphics!)

While GTA won't appeal to grandma, it did appeal to a lot of "tough" types who thought games were too detatched from reality. GTA's urban backdrop and dark humor is really what made it a hit.

Here casual means "tough dudes who don't play games much but like to keep it real" instead of "soccer moms and grandma."