Don't worry, won't happen.  The core gamer is a very lucrative market. They buy a LOT of games, and expensive ones at that.  A lot of the current developers will always cater to this crowd, they know it, understand it and it has made them rich.  There is no need for them to change.  Take Two will continue to make Bioshocks and GTAs.  However companies like THQ might give up on games like 'Conan' and focus on the casual market. But do you really care about losing substandard, rush-out, unfinished games?

 Go to a bookstore and tell me if there is only one genre of books on the shelf

 or go to television programing for that matter.  or movies.  

well maybe 45mill just maybe at end of 2008'

Okay - ipod.  That was extremely distruptive and from a company with no prior presence in the music scene.

Besides, they don't need to be disruptive, once the ocean opens up it's there for the taking.

When John Luca speaks, everyone listens. Anyways I could see 60 million by the end of 2008 really happening. If Nintendo keeps producing at their levels and stockpiles what they don't sell then yes. I feel that if they have 50 million in extra stock by next Christmas they could sell it all. They question is how long they want to keep up production levels at 1.8 million. My guess is that they will be confident to hold those levels for at least till April. The post-Christmas rush will go into February. Then you have Brawl in February. Wiifit will have made an appearance by then. Kart in Spring. It all depends if Nintendo properly markets Wiifit. I don't see them lowering production levels until June next year if at all.

If the Wii sells as much as, or more than, the PS2 nothing you just said matters....look at the PS2, most of it's games were awful, but the great ones were still made, when you have a userbase as massive as that as long as the game you make isnt total shite it doesn't matter what genre it is if you are trying to make a profit.

And nothing...NOTHING. except when the time is right will stop Nintendo releasing more Zelda/Smash Bros with each new system and by "time is right" i don't mean what the market is like (unless it totally fails, which it won't) i mean when Nintendo feel they are not complimenting or adding anything to the previous incarnations.
Look for instance how incredibly successful Wii sports is, yet Nintendo are not even planning a sequel (i really hope they do...maybe late 2009-2010)

I don't follow.  I don't know what you mean in reference to my post @_@

No way only 45 million. They will be at 20 million by January at the latest. And they will be at 30 million by May. They are also planning to expand to China next year from what I recall so there is a large chance that they won't decrease production next year at all. So lets say they can produce at least 2 million a month all next year. Then 60 million may end up being the minimum.

I guess I should rephrase what I'm saying. The PS2 winning last gen was different. It wasn't marketed as a "casual" gaming machinge, it had many more "hardcore" games. It's highest selling game wasn't a casual game but GTA, the most hated game of most of the mainstream Nintendo is seeking. My post was to point out that by the system's highest selling game being a casual one, developers may believe that casual games sell better than hardcore games (Which is true, Wii Play, Wii Sports, and if John Lucas is right, Wii Fit) which will cement that Nintendo will be seen as a casual game system by devs and then they will make casual games for the systems. I don't think that Mario, Smash, and Zelda will die, but I do think it will be a ton more casual games than now if the Wii hits those kinds of numbers and PS3 and 360 lack to grow in the wake of the Wii.