John Lucas. I am your biggest fan. Your confidence inspires, your points make so much sense, your writing style is immaculate. But I do think your Wii sales predictions are always a bit too high. I think you intentionally do that to make more of an impact though you definitely believe Wii will destroy the competition.

 If they ship a million I don't see why it couldn't sell a million, it is after all the holiday season

i think the demand for wii is there John...i just dont know if there is supply buddy

60 million, huh? You don't need to argue that there is sufficient demand to sell 45 million more units, I think that is obvious. Hell, if 45 million Wiis were to find their way onto the shelves today, they would be sold by Christmas.

Supply is the only thing holding the Wii from selling 60 million in 2008. Assuming they will sell 20 million by the end of 2007 (which looks like they will, or at least close), they will have to DOUBLE production in 2008 to get to 60 million.

That doesn't just mean that they will have to find a way to double their production capacities... since they will have to ramp up production over the year, they won't be producing twice as many Wiis in January 2008. January will see similar production rates to now. That means they will have to make up for that in the later months, meaning they may have to TRIPLE their production rates by the end of the year to produce 40 million.

I can buy that they can double production by late 2008, but that would only amount to another 25-30 million over the year, making 45-50 million units sold by the end of 2008. I will go high and say 50 million.

45 million at the most. 35 at the least. I doubt 60m.

well pretty much everyone that i know of that has never owned a console says they want one. and none has gotten one uyet cause they cant find them at all. so i can see how his predictions can come true. especially if wiifit hits big

I say that the Wii could maybe do 50 million by the end of '08...

Mummelmann said: Why should we all pray that the Wii gets such colossal sales? That will take devs away from 360 and PS3 and make good games for those platforms even more rare than today! I want a diverse market with tough competition, and as I've stated before; I'm no fan of technological setbacks. The Wii is cool for those who like it, but having it take all the thunder will damage the gaming industry in the long run by making devs too timid to create games for more advanced platforms and voila; the console industry is ruined (or damn nearly...) Sorry to burst everyones bubble, but that's how I feel.

 I hope the Wii has colossal sales.

1. a massive userbase would almost gaurentee enough sales for any game to be profitable.  and if the game developers feel confident they can make a profit they will be more willing to make ground breaking and different games instead of the fps after fps after fps that plaugues the xbox and somewhat ps3.

2. if the userbase is large enough nintendo could drop price of games.  $10 from 100 people is just as good as $50 from 20.

3. a "diverse market" where ps3, wii, and xbox are all about equal just means you have to own multiple consols to play all the best games.  ewww, give me one good one.

the consol industry is better for having the wii, but that's just how i feel.

I don't want to be forced to play all my games with a Wiimote, I don't like the thing! It's no worse making people buy a BluRay player than making them buy and use an unconventional method of controlling the games.
Yes the Wiimote is brilliant for Wiisports and the like, but lackluster at best in many other genres.
Diversity is what keeps the market evolving.
I think we can all agree that competition inspires better product development?
Windows could be bearable if MS had a real competitor.
And what would PC gamers say if every dev jumped ship on advanced games? What would they use their PC's for? Mario games? No, the market just doesn't work that way, everyone has different tastes and no one platform can cater to all of them!

mummelmann, the Wii isn't about forcing you to use the Wii remote, the classic controller was created for a reason, some games will wor better without motion, and any that need more buttons than the Wii remote will need the classic.
The only reason the classic was not included in the Wii package was because 3rd party developers wer bound to be lazy and just use that all the time, admitedly they were still lazy and just tacked on motion to various cheap ports/Wiiplay copies (Wii play is a good game because it is basically £5 other party games are not as good unless they are priced accordingly)
However the forcing should hopefully have meant developers learn a few things and in future use the remote well, or if they like, not at all.

As for your point about tough competition = diversity that may be true to a point but what about things like the iPod.... has music had a change for the worse because of it?...or what about the PS2 last gen.